Average life expectancy at birth will increase globally by 2030, according to a new study, with South Korea projected to lead the way as the first to exceed 90 years.
The two time points help define when lifespans in a population are extending due to improvements in maternal and child health as well as improved adult health.
The average for women at birth will exceed 85 years in many countries, but South Korea is projected to lead the way with a life expectancy of 90.8 years.
In 2015, global average life expectancy at birth was 71.4 years, according to the World Health Organization.
Unhealthier lifestyles among men, including higher rates of smoking and alcohol consumption, have long meant a greater life expectancy for women, say the researchers.
Life expectancy among men born in South Korea in 2030 is therefore predicted to be 84.1 years, according to the study, published Tuesday in the Lancet.
But the study authors believe this gap between the sexes is now shrinking as lifestyles become more similar.
“The biggest result is that … at least one group is going to break the 90-year barrier,” said Majid Ezzati, professor of global environmental health at Imperial College London, referring to the predictions among South Korean women. Ezzati led the study and highlighted that many experts had believed the average would never exceed 90.
“This shows that even if there is a limit to longevity, we are nowhere near it,” he said. “We should be planning for more life. ”
The analysis included data on mortality and longevity patterns from 35 industrialized nations, including both high-income countries and emerging economies.
In Europe, French women and Swiss women are predicted to have the highest life expectancy, with averages of 88.6 and 84 years respectively.
Among predictions for high-income countries, the lowest life expectancy at birth is likely to be in the US, with an average of 83.3 years for women and 79.5 years for men — similar to Mexico and Croatia.
“They still have relatively high rates of young and middle-age mortality,” Ezzati told CNN, referring to the countries with lower life expectancies.
