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Was Trump’s North Korea Threat a Strategy Shift or Pure Bluster?

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Even if he wasn’ t planning to escalate a dangerous situation, that was the effect.
Several long-feared moments came in quick succession on Tuesday afternoon. First, the Washington Post reported that U. S. analysts believe North Korea is now capable of producing miniaturized nuclear warheads that fit inside their missiles, a key step toward becoming a nuclear power. Then Trump responded to an international crisis by shooting his mouth off, saying, “North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States, ” or “They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” Unsurprisingly, rather than backing down, North Korea said it’s considering an attack on Guam, a U. S. territory.
The exchange heightened fears that tensions between North Korea and the U. S. could devolve into war, and raised questions about why the president would respond to Pyongyang with language that echoes Kim Jong-un’s cartoon villain-esque threats.
The New York Times, ostensibly Trump’s least favorite publication, offered the most generous assessments of the president’ remarks. In a piece on the unprecedented nature of Trump’s rhetoric, the paper left open the possibility that he was intentionally channeling President Truman:
And while reactions were mostly negative across the political spectrum, the Times quoted two experts who suggested Trump’s bellicose words might be part of some larger strategy.
“It may be a message to [Chinese President] Xi Jinping, that you have to be doing more than just sanctions at the U. N., ” Joseph S. Nye Jr., a Harvard scholar who once ran the American government’s National Intelligence Council, told the paper. “It may be a very rational, thought-out message, ” rather than an emotional outburst, he added.
Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the nonprofit Foundation for Defense of Democracies, suggested it may be time for the president to try new tactics.
“This is a more dangerous moment than faced by Trump’s predecessors, ” he said. “The normal nuanced diplomatic rhetoric coming out of Washington hasn’ t worked in persuading the Kim regime of American resolve. This language underscores that the most powerful country in the world has its own escalatory and retaliatory options.”
There isn’ t much evidence that Trump’s words were a carefully plotted to elicit a particular response from North Korea or its neighbors – which is both good and bad.
First, the venue Trump chose for his serious escalation of the standoff with Kim Jong-un wasn’ t a televised address to the nation, but a briefing on the opioid crisis at his New Jersey golf course. Trump was responding to a question about North Korea that was shouted by a reporter, and it seems likely that he used the phrase “fire and fury like the world has never seen” because he’ d just described his crack down at the southern border in similar terms.
If Trump did intend to announce a course change on North Korea, he forgot to alert the rest of his administration. Politico reports that Pentagon spokesman Colonel Robert Manning said he was “not aware of any change in policy.” He directed further questions to the White House, but they had little to say about Trump’s new stance:
Trump’s outburst undermined the work his administration has been doing on the North Korea issue, which finally saw some success over the weekend when the United Nations Security Council unanimously approved tougher sanctions against Pyongyang. Per CNN:
Before we had an opportunity to see the effects of those sanctions, Trump set a red line that North Korea violated in a matter of hours. The president didn’ t specify what sort of “threats” from North Korea will be met with “fire, fury, and frankly power, ” but Pyongyang’s talk of attacking Guam suggests they won’ t be backing down anytime soon. As The Atlantic notes, if Trump isn’ t ready to back up his offhand comment, he’s confirming that other world leaders shouldn’ t take him seriously:
No missiles flew overnight, so some are taking comfort in the idea that is that Trump was just matching North Korea’s bluster with his own. However, it’s still tremendously frightening that Trump doesn’ t seem to understand that’s just the kind of thing that can unintentionally start a war.

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