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Fantasy Football: Who to Start in Week 4

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Russell Wilson is a good bet at quarterback, and LeSean McCoy is a smart start at running back.
The Sablich brothers have provided award-winning fantasy football advice for The New York Times since 2010. See their weekly player rankings and visit 5thDownFantasy.com for more fantasy analysis. You can also ask them questions through their Twitter account, @5thdownfantasy.
With three weeks under our belts, some of the biggest fantasy football questions heading into the season, for the most part, have been answered.
Among the many: Will Brandin Cooks succeed in the Patriots’ system? Yes. Was Dak Prescott’s rookie season a fluke? No. Can Todd Gurley return to being the elite back he was in his rookie season? Yes.
But when it comes to assessing fantasy football matchups (i.e. how good are N. F. L. defenses against particular fantasy positions), it’s still a muddled picture.
A few things are clear: The Saints are still fantasy gold for opposing quarterbacks and running backs, as are the 49ers for backs and Titans for receivers.
But still, three weeks is not enough time to have a good idea what you’re getting into each week when you are setting your lineups. It’s still an estimate based on how defenses fared last season combined with what little data we have this season.
With all of that in mind, here is how Week 4’s fantasy football forecast is shaping up.
Russell Wilson (SEA vs. Colts) — He’s not traditionally somebody who you would have to even think about benching. But until last week some players had to be wondering. After a rocky 2016, Wilson had only a combined 23.6 fantasy points over his first two games of 2017. But then last week, on the road, he threw for a career-high 373 yards, along with four touchdown passes, against the Titans. You would like to see more consistency, but it’s hard not to like him at home against the Colts, a team not known for shutting down opposing fantasy quarterbacks.
Dak Prescott (DAL vs. Rams) — He weathered a storm of unfavorable matchups to start the season, against the Giants, Broncos and Cardinals, and held his own, averaging nearly 19 fantasy points per game. Next up is a much easier opponent for fantasy quarterbacks, the Rams, who allowed the ninth most F. P. G. to the position in 2016 and are coming off yielding 26.2 points to the 49ers’ Brian Hoyer.
Also Consider: Andy Dalton (CIN at Browns); Alex Smith (KC vs. Redskins)
LeSean McCoy (BUF at Falcons) — O. K., I give up on the McCoy versus Kareem Hunt debate. I would trade McCoy for Hunt at this point. But I’m not willing to give up on McCoy either, who after a great Week 1 has not produced much over the past two weeks. A matchup with the Falcons should get him back on track, as Atlanta allowed the eighth most F. P. G. to backs in 2016 and has been even worse so far this season, yielding the fourth most at 22.6 F. P. G.
Leonard Fournette (JAC at Jets) — The highly-touted rookie has not disappointed so far, averaging about 15 F. P. G. against some stout run defenses (Texans, Titans and Ravens). The Jets are up next, and stout they are not, having allowed four different running backs to top 10 fantasy points over their first two games. Despite the Dolphins’ Jay Ajayi managing only 2.5 fantasy points against them in Week 3, they have allowed the seventh most F. P. G. against the position this season.
Also Consider: Chris Carson (SEA vs. Colts); Joe Mixon (CIN at Browns)
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU vs. Titans) — He has yet to have a dominant fantasy performance this season, but something has to be said for his consistency, hauling in seven catches in each of his first three games. He’s also a target monster, taking in 39.1 percent of them on the Texans, which is the highest percentage among all N. F. L. receivers. His total targets (37) are also the most in the league. All signs are pointing to excellent production in Week 4 against the Titans, who have given up the fifth most F. P. G. to the position so far this season (26.9).
Keenan Allen (LAC vs. Eagles) — Like Hopkins, Allen is the man in terms of team targets, averaging 9.7 per game (sixth most in N. F. L.). He’s certainly a better play in P. R. leagues, averaging 14.9 F. P. G. compared to 8.5 in standard leagues. But consider him in both formats this week against the Eagles, who have proven to be beatable in 2017, allowing the 11th most fantasy points to the position and coming off a week where all three opposing Giants receivers topped 10 fantasy points.
Also Consider: Willie Snead (NO at Dolphins); Marqise Lee (JAC at Jets)
Travis Kelce (KC vs. Redskins) — This is just a reminder that Kelce should be started every week, even after his dud in Week 3 (one reception, one yard). It was a tough pill to swallow after his eight-catch, 103-yard and one-touchdown performance in Week 2. Expect something more along those lines this week against Washington, the team that has allowed the most yards to opposing tight ends this season.
Also Consider: Martellus Bennett (GB vs. Bears)
Matt Prater (DET at Vikings); Greg Zuerlein (LAR at Cowboys)
GB vs. Bears; CIN at Browns

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