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Hurricane Irma Gainesville: Projected Path & Forecast

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Learn more about the potential impact of Hurricane Irma on Gainesville, Florida, including weather forecast maps, radar, and the hurricane’s path.
Hurricane Irma became a dangerous Category 5 storm with wind speeds of 175 miles per hour. The hurricane was headed toward Florida, but what are the chances it could hit Gainesville?
Irma became a dangerous category 5 storm on September 5 as it headed toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. However, right now, the storm is predicted to cut a swath through southern Florida, including Miami and Key West, and the weather forecast for Gainesville shows rain but not hurricane or tropical storm force winds. Track the storm here.
“Hurricane Center and National Weather Service forecasters warned it’s too soon to tell what Irma’s impacts could be in Florida or other hurricane-prone areas of the United States, ” Gainesville.com reported. “Forecasters must wait to see if Irma takes a predicted turn to the north as it travels around a high-pressure ridge over the Atlantic Ocean and see how the ridge and hurricane interact with a trough moving across the U. S.”
See updated radar maps for Gainesville here. Note that the community relies on the Jacksonville weather office. See the hourly forecast here. See infrared satellite maps here. See an updated weather page for Gainesville here.
This is the hazardous weather outlook for the area including Gainesville on September 5 from the National Weather Service:
“Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible today, with the best coverage of storms near the St. Johns River basin of northeast Florida late this afternoon into this evening. Gusty winds, hail and locally heavy rainfall will be possible as storms move toward the east northeast around 5 to 10 mph. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN… Wednesday through Monday… A cold front will move across the area Wednesday preceded by thunderstorms. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday, which will be capable of producing Strong winds and hail. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday, then thunderstorm potential increases into the weekend especially along the coast. An elevated rip current risk will continue through the weekend as swells from Hurricane Irma build within the local Atlantic waters.”
The outlook continues: “Onshore flow will increase late Thursday into the weekend as Hurricane Irma approaches Cuba and south Florida. Rough and high surf, beach erosion, coastal flooding and deteriorating conditions over the adjacent Atlantic waters are expected. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible especially along the Atlantic coast this weekend. It is too early to speculate on any further potential impacts from Hurricane Irma.”
See the Irma briefing for the Gainesville area here. Note, again, that the NWS forecasts come out of the Jacksonville office for Gainesville.
Here’s the projected path of the storm as of September 5:
“A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.”
“A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Light west wind.”
“A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.”
“A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers between 8pm and 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 71. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%.”
“A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. North wind around 6 mph.”
“A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.”
“A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87.”
“A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72.”
“Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.”
“A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72.”
“Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.”
“Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.”
“Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.”

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