The two moderate Republicans are bracing for a ferocious lobbying campaign from both sides.
Sen. Susan Collins took a notable phone call Thursday as she enters the eye of the Supreme Court confirmation storm: It was White House counsel Don McGahn, sounding out the moderate Maine Republican in what she called a “preliminary discussion” of the high court vacancy.
Republicans control the Senate by a single seat and Arizona Sen. John McCain has been absent for months. That means any single GOP senator has enormous sway over President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court pick.
None matter more than Collins and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska).
A year ago, the two moderate Republicans, along with McCain, stopped Obamacare repeal in its tracks while helping to confirm Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. Now, as they weigh how to replace the retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy, the two are about to be squeezed more than ever — by liberals seeking a Republican to stop the court from outlawing abortion rights, among other potential conservative rulings, and by their fellow Republicans looking for a show of party unity on a hugely consequential vote.
But the two senators said Thursday they won’t simply fall in line behind whomever Trump nominates.
“There’s pressure because of the gravity of such a nomination,” Murkowski acknowledged. “I am not going to suggest that my opportunity as a senator in the advise and consent process is somehow or other short-cutted just because this is a Republican president and I’m a Republican.”
“No matter how I vote there are going to be people who are furious at me,” Collins said. She added that she views her vote as immune from partisan pressure because “it’s a Supreme Court nominee. It’s not the assistant deputy secretary for weights and measures at the Commerce Department. This is a lifetime appointment to the highest court in the land. It matters.”
Both senators suggested Trump need not pull a judge from his list of potential nominees, a document filled with down-the-line conservatives that would dramatically shift the balance of the court to the right. Collins said an “outside group” should not be dictating whom the Senate considers; Murkowski said Trump has already kept his commitment to the list by elevating Gorsuch to the Supreme Court and should extend his search beyond that list.
GOP leaders are already advising Trump to draft a justice who is restrained in rhetoric and that the president try to appeal to moderates. Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) said a nominee who stated to senators that he or she would “work hard to overrule these precedents… that’s going to cause a lot of problems” for centrist senators.
A buttoned-up justice with somewhat opaque views on hot-button issues might be more palatable to Murkowski and Collins, Cornyn suggested.
Though the duo rejected the GOP’s effort to nix Obamacare, they also voted for Gorsuch. And most Republicans anticipate they will ultimately get behind Trump’s next pick.
“I expect the Republicans to back the nominee, whoever it is,” said Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, a close Trump ally. “I would never tell anybody how to vote but this is one where the president’s demonstrated he will put forward a very reasonable candidate.”
Still, Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 3 GOP leader, said he hoped the White House is closely consulting with the two senators, even as much of the GOP’s pressure campaign is focused on Democrats from red states where Trump is popular.
“As much as you can, find somebody Collins and Murkowski can support,” Thune said. Because “I think we ought to plan to get this done with Republican votes.”
Marc Short, White House director of legislative affairs, said the Trump administration had “met with a handful” Democrats before Gorsuch’s nomination. Short also said Trump was going to act quickly on a nomination. “He’s already reviewed the list [of potential nominees], and it’s a finite list,” Short told reporters on Thursday. “I would expect him to act expeditiously.”
Republicans believe Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin if West Virginia and Joe Donnelly of Indiana are in play because of their conservative social positions and reelection campaigns. Those two Democrats, plus Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, voted for Gorsuch.
Manchin is considered most likely to support Trump’s nominees at this point given the conservative bent of his state, but he’s not giving anything away at this early stage: “I’m just waiting for a nominee. I swear,” he said Thursday.
Moderate Democrats might be inclined to wait until late in the process if they end up supporting Trump’s nominee, putting Murkowski and Collins more under the microscope until then. And Democrats will focus their efforts on the two moderate Republicans.
“Our focus has to be on getting a handful of Republicans … this is a legacy vote,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “I don’t know how you can say you were pro-choice if you cast a vote that will be looked upon that criminalized abortion and put women in jail.”
Murkowski opposed President Barack Obama’s appointee Elena Kagan, but otherwise she and Collins have voted for nominees under presidents of both parties. Collins and Murkowski both met with Obama nominee Merrick Garland, who never received a hearing in the Judiciary Committee.
The two senators said this nominee will be no more important than any other Supreme Court votes they’ve cast. But each acknowledged that the political stakes might be higher than ever, given their party’s narrow majority, the approaching midterms and the potential for the Supreme Court to be reshaped for a generation.
“This is what goes on in the Senate. Sometimes you’re in the pressure cooker,” Murkowski said. Asked whether a pressure campaign could backfire, as it did on Obamacare repeal, she paused and replied: “I could just say something flip, like ‘Watch me.’”
Then she added: “I don’t mean to be flip…. I take it very, very seriously.
