Next month, a parade of lucky celebs will take the stage of Hollywood’s Dolby Theatre and say, “You like me, you really like me!”…
Next month, a parade of lucky celebs will take the stage of Hollywood’s Dolby Theatre and say, “You like me, you really like me!” as they clutch their coveted Oscars.
But don’t get too comfy yet, stars. A lot can change in the next seven weeks — an eternity during awards season.
Voting opened Monday for the 91st Academy Awards, just a day after “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Green Book” shocked everybody by winning the top prizes at the Golden Globes. Then, on Tuesday, the Directors Guild left the one-time favorite, “The Favourite,” off its list completely.
As many as 10 films can be nominated for Best Picture, and as few as five. In the complicated mathematical system, all Academy voters list up to five top picks. And in order to be eligible for a slot, a film must be the No. 1 choice of at least 5 percent of voters.
Figuring out who has the best shot at winning an Oscar is a pseudo-science that combines proper analysis, historical precedent and gut instinct. Of course a film’s chances are affected by its quality, but you also must consider voters’ affection for those involved — Marty! Meryl! — and increasingly the day’s news.
Take “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”
In 2018, the acclaimed film was nominated for six Golden Globe Awards, winning four, including Best Motion Picture (drama) and Best Screenplay. And then the film’s momentum skidded to a halt when columnists began assailing the character of a racist, but likable, cop played by Sam Rockwell. Just like that, the film became associated with racism — not a good look — and by March, the Academy Awards only honored the film for its acting.
This year’s “Three Billboards” would appear to be “Green Book,” which just won the Globe for Best Motion Picture (comedy).
