What happens if the Brexit deal fails?
The future of Brexit could be decided in the UK Parliament on Tuesday. But it probably won’t be.
Members of Parliament are expected to vote January 15 on the Brexit withdrawal agreement, which Prime Minister Theresa May and her counterparts in the European Union negotiated in November. The vote had initially been set for December, but May abruptly postponed it when it became clear that her deal was headed for a crushing defeat.
Now May’s government will try again, but it doesn’t look like much has changed in the past month. The prospects of getting her deal through Parliament still look grim. The withdrawal agreement — which outlines the terms of the EU-UK divorce — remains unpopular with just about everyone, from the hardline Brexiteers who want a decisive split with Europe to the pro-Remain camp who want to stay close to the EU.
On Monday, May made a last-ditch attemp t to sell the agreement ahead of the vote. She argued that despite objections from all corners, this deal is the only way to ensure an orderly Brexit. “So I say to Members on all sides of this House — whatever you may have previously concluded — over these next 24 hours, give this deal a second look,” May told members of Parliament . “No, it is not perfect. And yes, it is a compromise.”
That doesn’t look like it will be enough to persuade Parliament, even though the Brexit deadline of March 29,2019, is just two months away. If the UK hasn’t ratified a withdrawal agreement by that date, it will crash out of the EU, with potentially catastrophic consequences, from food and medicine shortages to major backlogs at ports of entry.
If May’s deal is defeated, she’ll have to come back to Parliament with a “plan B” — but no one knows what that would look like at this point. May didn’t rule out the possibility of extending the Brexit deadline on Tuesday, and there are signs that the EU also might be willing to extend Britain’s exit, if it looks like there’s another alternative to no deal.
But more time doesn’t put the bitterly divided UK any closer to a solution on Brexit. Members of Parliament have proposed other solutions — such as holding another referendum to decide the future of Brexit — but that’s only complicated the political stalemate, as alternatives lack consensus right now.
The opposition Labour Party, for its part, has said that it will call for a no-confidence vote in May’s government if her deal is badly defeated. While it’s unclear if the gambit will succeed, it would likely thrust May into political turmoil once again.
Right now, May’s deal appears headed for defeat — though it’s unclear if it will be a hugely embarrassing one, or if it will leave her room to salvage the plan and attempt another vote. Either way, one thing is for sure: Britain is bracing for more uncertainty and political chaos.
May’s Brexit deal lays out the terms of the UK’s divorce from the European Union. It’s nearly 600 pages long, but one of the key elements of the agreement is that it provides a 21-month transition period (which can be renewed up to one time), during which the UK will lose its decision-making power in the EU but will remain part of the body and follow all its rules. During this period, the EU and UK will also negotiate the terms of the future trade relationship, which is currently outlined in a short political declaration attached to the withdrawal agreement that’s intentionally open-ended.
The opposition to the deal is fierce. The hard Brexiteers — those who want a clean break from the EU — see this document as potentially trapping the UK in a dependent relationship with the bloc indefinitely. Meanwhile, members of Parliament who are pro-Europe, or ultimately want to Remain, view the deal as weakening the UK and leaving it in a much worse position economically and politically.
The primary issue with the deal, particularly for the Brexiteers, is what’s known as the “Irish backstop,” which is basically an insurance policy to guarantee that the border between Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (part of the EU) remains open as the UK and EU try to negotiate their future relationship.
