Just because ‘The Nun’ opened with $54 million doesn’t mean that’s the new normal for ‘Conjuring’ movies.
‘Annabelle Comes Home’
The first big of official tracking for Annabelle Comes Home dropped yesterday, and all preliminary signs point to a $35 million Wed-Sun debut. The film was initially slotted for June 28 before moving up to June 26, presumably to give it more time away from Stranger Things and its season three launch date on July 4. Yes, that would be about the same figure in five days that Annabelle: Creation earned in its Fri-Sun debut back in August of 2017.
That said, I have always argued that longer opening weekends should be compared relatively side-by-side with Fri-Sun launches. Generally speaking, if someone sees Annabelle Comes Home on Wednesday or Thursday because it opens “early,” then you can assume that they would have seen it on Friday or Saturday had it opened more conventionally. That’s why I still always count those Thursday previews as part of the Fri-Sun box office.
And that they moved the film two days up argues that Warner Bros. and New Line think it works. Simply put, if the movie stunk (with the caveat that I like some of these Conjuring Universe movies less than you), WB wouldn’t be opening it earlier. It’s the classic Godzilla Rule (named after Roland Emmerich’s 1998 version), whereby you don’t open a bad movie on Wednesday because then toxic word of mouth will spread by Friday.
Written and directed by franchise vet Gary Dauberman, the period-piece horror flick is both a sequel to Annabelle: Creation and (depending on when it takes place) a prequel or sequel to the previous Conjuring films. It stars both Annabelle and the stars of the Conjuring films, namely Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson as the Warrens as the title doll declares war on their daughter (Mckenna Grace) and her babysitters (Madison Iseman and Katie Sarife). The trailer is solid (and plays well to a packed audience) and the brand has plenty of earned goodwill heading into its mid-summer release.
Is it possible that good reviews and strong buzz could push that figure upward? Sure, although we should note that pre-release tracking was dead-on for the likes of Godzilla: King of the Monsters, Aquaman and Detective Pikachu. That being said, a (presumably) over/under $20 million-budgeted, R-rated horror film from a brand with huge overseas potential earning $35 million in its first five days isn’t exactly a tragedy.
Just because The Nun stupendously over-performed (a $53 million launch and a $366 million global cume) doesn’t mean that’s the new normal for this franchise. WB and New Line were smart to distance the not-very-good Curse of La Llorona from the Conjuring Universe franchise despite it taking place within the same world (complete with an Annabelle cameo), although I’d be thrilled to see Raymond Cruz’s droll ex-priest show up in another one of these movies.
