Mike Clay breaks down each NFL team with a key fantasy football fact to get you ahead of the curve for Week 8 and beyond.
The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at least one mention of each of the league’s 32 teams. Though efficiency will be discussed plenty, the column will lean heavily on usage data, as volume is king (by far) in fantasy football. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for the upcoming week and beyond. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32. Throughout the below team-by-team rundowns, I’ll be referencing “OFP” and “OTD.” OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy points. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs every pass/carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player’s opportunity to score fantasy points, or his “expected” fantasy point total. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that a league-average player who saw the same workload in the same location on the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. FORP is the difference between a player’s actual fantasy point total and his OFP. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, it’s touchdowns. Volume is king in fantasy football, so this is not information you want to overlook. That said, here is the post-Week 7 OFP Leaderboard: *Complete OTD and OFP positional leaderboards will be posted on ESPN+ this week. Next, here are the players who exceeded their OFP by the largest margin this past week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward, assuming they see a similar workload: And these players fell short of their OFP by the largest margin last week, and thus you shouldn’t be too quick to overreact to their performance when making lineup, trade or waiver decisions: Arizona Cardinals: Kenyan Drake struggled with and eventually left Sunday night’s game against Seattle with an ankle injury. Arizona’s lead rusher played 31 snaps (39%), whereas Chase Edmonds ended up on the field for 48 plays. Edmonds had the opportunity to carry the ball only five times for 58 yards with Arizona playing catchup down the stretch, but he was a major factor as a receiver (7-87-0 on seven targets). Arizona is headed to its bye week, but if Drake remains out in two weeks, Edmonds will be a borderline RB1 option. Rookies Jonathan Ward (undrafted) and Eno Benjamin (seventh round) would figure to see a few snaps, but it’s very possible Edmonds would push for an 80% snap share. He’s well worth claiming on waivers and stashing through the bye. Atlanta Falcons: Another week, more Todd Gurley II touchdowns. The 26-year-old found the end zone twice (once accidentally) against Detroit on Sunday and has now scored seven touchdowns in as many games this season. Gurley’s scoring has coincided with a healthy workload, as he’s racked up 122 carries (second most in the NFL) this season, which includes at least 14 attempts in all seven games. Gurley has also seen a boost in passing-game work recently. He was targeted only eight times during Atlanta’s first four games, but he has seen 12 during his past three outings. Gurley’s heavy workload, touchdown production and increased passing-game duties have solidified him as a solid weekly RB2. Fantasy’s No.8-scoring back has a great matchup against Carolina this week. Baltimore Ravens: As a group, Ravens’ wide receivers entered the team’s Week 7 bye ranked 31st out of 32 teams in fantasy points per game. The unit is averaging only 14.7 targets per game and has totaled a 58-737-2 receiving line on 88 targets in six games. Despite plenty of offseason Marquise Brown hype, this lack of production shouldn’t be a surprise. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has called plays for seven seasons and only one of his WR units finished higher than 21st in targets (the 2019 Ravens finished 31st). Brown’s heavy usage (45% air yard share) had him 30th at wide receiver in fantasy points prior to the bye, though he’s managed one top-25 week, compared to four finishes of 38th or worse. Brown remains in the WR3 discussion, but the likes of Willie Snead, Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay don’t need to be close to rosters. Buffalo Bills: Cole Beasley caught 11 of 12 targets for 112 yards against the Jets on Sunday. The 31-year-old slot man now has either 53 yards or a touchdown in all seven games this season. That has allowed him at least 9.8 fantasy points every week, and Sunday’s performance vaulted him to 19th among wide receivers in fantasy points this season. Beasley’s usage might drop slightly once John Brown is healthy, but considering he has handled at least six targets in six of seven games, it’s clear he’s settling in as a PPR flex option in Buffalo’s pass-heavy offense. Carolina Panthers: Curtis Samuel caught all six of his targets for 48 yards and scored a 5-yard touchdown on his only carry against the Saints on Sunday. It was easily Samuel’s best fantasy day of the season, as the score was his first of 2020 and he has yet to clear 51 receiving yards in a game. Samuel’s average of 4.8 targets and 2.7 carries per game has allowed him only one weekly finish better than 36th and two better than 48th. The Panthers have been vocal about their efforts to get Samuel more involved, but he was on the field for only 47% of the offensive snaps Sunday (his lowest rate since Week 11 back in 2018). Carolina’s versatile offensive talent remains a borderline bench option who can’t be trusted in the flex. Chicago Bears: Jimmy Graham caught five of six targets for 31 yards against the Rams on Monday Night Football. Graham has handled five or more targets in six of seven games this season, including each of his past five. The usage hasn’t led to much in terms of yardage, as Graham has totaled no fewer than 31 yards but no more than 34 in four consecutive games. He has found the end zone four times this season, but his 6-60-2 receiving line on 10 targets back in Week 3 is looking more and more like a major fluke. Graham is a TE2 option who is going to hit for you only if he finds his way into the end zone. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Mixon was sidelined Sunday, which allowed Giovani Bernard to play 75% of the offensive snaps (55 of 73). Samaje Perine (two touches on 19 snaps) and Trayveon Williams (zero) were non factors, but Bernard obviously was not. The scat back didn’t do much on the ground (13-37-0) but put up a healthy 5-59-1 receiving line on five targets and finished the week as a top-10 fantasy RB. Mixon is questionable for Week 8, so if he remains out, Bernard’s usage suggests he’ll be right back on the RB1 radar against the Titans. Cleveland Browns: Odell Beckham Jr. went down for the season with a knee injury Sunday after only two snaps. With the team’s No.1 wideout sidelined, Rashard Higgins played 44 snaps (86%), which led the team’s wide receiver room. Higgins caught all six of his targets for 110 yards in the last-second victory. Higgins is a fan favorite but apparently not liked very much by multiple coaching staffs, as he has often been a healthy scratch and/or buried on the bench the past few seasons. That, of course, will change now with Beckham out. Higgins, who found the end zone in a situational role in both Weeks 5 and 6, is positioned as one of Baker Mayfield’s top targets. He’s well worth a bench spot, though not yet a flex option in one of the league’s run-heaviest and tight end-dependent offenses. Jarvis Landry, meanwhile, is a more secure WR3, and rookie Donovan Peoples-Jones (35 snaps on Sunday) is worth a flier in deep and dynasty leagues. Dallas Cowboys: Michael Gallup went without a catch on two targets in Washington on Sunday. Gallup has now posted receiving-yardage totals of 23 and 0 during Andy Dalton’s two starts, and that comes after we were already worried about his low target share when Dak Prescott was healthy. Gallup has managed double-digit fantasy points only twice in seven games this season, and most of his production came in one game against Seattle back in Week 3. Gallup doesn’t need to be on rosters, and Amari Cooper (7-80-0 on Sunday) is the only Cowboys’ pass catcher who should be locked into lineups right now, though even he is risky after Dallas netted 59 pass yards on Sunday. CeeDee Lamb, by the way, is a risky flex after also failing to catch a pass on Sunday.
