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Box Office: Why The Future Of Movie Theaters Is So Unclear

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Until the pandemic abates and studios start releasing theatrical tentpoles under their new individual structures, we have no idea how Universal’s “from theaters to PVOD” or Warner Bros.’ “in theaters and HBO Max” plan will affect movie theaters.
Until the pandemic ends and studios start releasing theatrical tentpoles under their new individual structures, we have no idea how Universal’s “from theaters to PVOD” or Warner Bros.’ “in theaters and HBO Max” plans will affect movie theaters. We don’t know how Warner Bros.’ blockbuster announcement concerning their 2021 movie slate will affect the theatrical movie industry. We don’t know how their choice to release not just Wonder Woman 1984 but their entire 2021 theatrical slate into theaters worldwide and (for a month) HBO Max concurrently will impact the industry as it attempts to claw back after nearly a year of Covid-related shutdowns. Dune, The Suicide Squad, Godzilla Vs. Kong and The Matrix 4 will open theatrically worldwide as previously scheduled, with the films getting a 30-day window (in participating territories) on HBO Max concurrent with their first 30 days of domestic release. It would be a readjustment or the end of all things. To be fair, WB claims that this shift is just for 2021, an admission that even a handful of successful vaccines won’t immediately return the world (and specifically North America) to business as usual until mid-to-late 2021. If nobody signs up for HBO Max as a result of this release strategy, it probably won’t continue past The Matrix 4 over Christmas 2021. Conversely, if tons of folks sign up for HBO Max and watch the “theatrical” movies while ignoring them in theaters nationwide, there’s a good chance that Warner Bros./AT&T T will continue the strategy or lessen their investment in theatrical distribution, especially if HBO Max launches in more overseas markets. That Chris Nolan’s Tenet did pretty well overseas ($300 million, or about 75% of what might have been expected in better times) yet bombed because it earned maybe 1/3 ($58 million) of what it would have domestically is proof that North America still matters to the overall theatrical landscape. If America didn’t matter, the soft domestic performance wouldn’t have factored into the delays (for No Time to Die, Black Widow, Wonder Woman 1984, etc.) following Tenet’s softer-than-hoped $20.2 million long Labor Day weekend launch. Correlation is not causation, but many of the chess moves (including Disney DIS shifting Mulan and Soul to Disney+ where available) is about making up for lost/endangered 25%-50% of global grosses represented by domestic theaters. Is this the end of movie theaters in North America? Is this the declaration that HBO Max wants to compete alongside Disney+ and Netflix NFLX , and if so, will it result in them sacrificing billions in theatrical revenue for theoretical (and more shareholder-friendly?) streaming success? Is this just about Warner Bros.

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