The election could say a lot about candidate quality and about whether Democrats can replicate their success in the state.
The results of the Georgia Senate runoff, taking place on December 6, could ultimately be pretty illuminating.
The election, a rematch between Baptist pastor Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and former football star Herschel Walker (R) will tell us more about how much candidate quality really matters, whether Democrats are able to replicate the gains they saw in Georgia in 2021, and which party was able to keep more of its voters energized.
The outcome will also have big implications for power in the Senate. While Georgia’s election will no longer decide the majority, it could determine whether Democrats secure a 51st seat, which would give them more control over committees, judicial nominations, and the upper chamber’s legislative agenda.
Depending on how close the race is, we may not know the results for a day or two, though we’re likely to soon have a better read on several issues the runoff has raised. Here are five key questions we’re watching as results come in this week. 1) Could Warnock maintain his lead from the general election and in the polls?
Although he did not get a majority of the votes in the general election, Warnock did beat Walker, securing 49.4 percent of the vote to Walker’s 48.5 percent. Because no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, the race went to a runoff, as required by Georgia law.
Since the general election, Warnock has been leading consistently in polls, with most of the surveys conducted continuing to show him ahead by narrow margins. A late November poll from Emerson College and The Hill had Warnock up by 2 percentage points among likely voters, while another poll from SurveyUSA and WXIA-TV Atlanta had Warnock up by 3 percentage points. Warnock also benefits from incumbency — having served for nearly two years, he’s a name Georgians know — and has previously maintained solid approval ratings in the state.
The senator’s lead in the general and the latest polling suggest he’s in a strong position going into this runoff, but the main unknown is whether enough of the voters who supported him in November will be motivated to vote again. 2) Are Walker’s scandals sufficient to deter Republican voters?
Another big outstanding question is whether Walker could still win in the face of his numerous scandals and campaign trail missteps.
During his campaign, Walker has been plagued with a series of issues, including allegations that, despite being staunchly anti-abortion himself, he paid for two women’s abortions (he has denied both allegations). Walker has also faced allegations of domestic violence, scrutiny over policy gaffes, and claims that he misrepresented his business record, charitable donations, and experience in law enforcement.
Most of these allegations and policy missteps were public ahead of the general election, suggesting that many Republicans remain willing to back him regardless, and could continue to do so.
