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A Marina District apartment building that was heavily damaged in the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989.
The death toll from Monday’s magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Turkey and Syria rose to over 7,000 people on Tuesday as rescue teams continued to search for survivors in the dust and rubble of thousands of collapsed buildings, their work hampered by dozens of aftershocks.
The quake was approximately the same magnitude as the famed 1906 earthquake that leveled parts of the San Francisco Bay Area, leaving many residents with a burning question: What would happen if — or, more accurately, when — another quake that size were to hit home?
For answers, SFGATE reached out to several seismologists, including David Wald of the U.S. Geological Survey, who said that a similar-sized quake here would cause significant devastation — but, thankfully, would likely result in far fewer deaths. He estimated that a repeat of the 1906 earthquake today would result in between 100 and 1,000 deaths, thanks in large part to strong, well-enforced building codes.
“We have the best building code and adherence to that code, probably in the world,” Wald told SFGATE. “That makes a huge difference. You would never have the same level of destruction and ensuing fatalities here [as in Turkey and Syria].”
While such large earthquakes are rare, Wald told SFGATE, residents should always be prepared for “the big one.”
Stephen DeLong, a supervisory research geologist with the USGS, agreed that Bay Area buildings would be better able to withstand a massive quake than many of those that collapsed this week in Turkey and Syria.
