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N. F. L. Picks Week 14: N. F. C. Offers a Playoff Preview

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Six of the N. F. C.’s top seven teams will face off against each other in a week that will look a lot like the first two rounds of the playoffs.
It should be a wild week in the N. F. L.’s National Football Conference: Six of the conference’s top seven teams will be facing one another in three games. Few playoff clinchings are on the table, but with a glut at the top of the standings, the week will serve as a preview of what the N. F. C. playoffs may look like. Here are our picks against the spread.
Last week’s record against the spread: 9-7
Overall record: 96-90-6
Vikings at Panthers, 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Vikings by 2.5
The Vikings (10-2) have a greater than 99 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to The Upshot’s playoff simulator, and faith in them is high: This weekend, they are road favorites against one of the league’s 10 best teams. The defense has continued to punish opponents, Case Keenum has continued to lead a surprisingly efficient offense and last season’s collapse is a distant memory.
Currently in the top spot in the N. F. C. playoff standings by way of a tiebreaker with Philadelphia (and on the verge of an N. F. C. North title, which they would clinch with a win or a tie), the Vikings could become the first team to have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and then play at home in the Super Bowl.
Coach Mike Zimmer is not ready to make plans that far ahead.
“We’ve got four games left,” he told reporters. “My only thoughts are on the Carolina Panthers and trying to get a win this week. All that stuff is nice to talk about, but for us, we’ll go about our business.”
The Panthers (8-4,68 percent) have numbers that are similar to Minnesota’s, but they have been less consistent. Cam Newton is capable of having a more electric game than Keenum, but he is also more prone to errors and mixes in bad performances with great ones.
Picking against the Vikings does not seem wise. They are clicking in a way that few teams are. But should Newton have one of his better days, this one can go either way. Pick: Vikings
Eagles at Rams, 4:25 p.m., Fox
Line: Rams by 2
The Eagles (10-2, > 99 percent) went into last weekend with a wide path cleared for them to clinch their first division title since 2013. All they needed was to beat or tie the Seahawks, or for the Cowboys to lose to or tie the Redskins. Somehow, none of that happened. Philadelphia went from the cusp of clinching a division title to being knocked out of the top spot in the N. F. C. playoff bracket, thanks to its blowout loss to Seattle and Minnesota’s win over Atlanta. The Eagles and the Vikings have 10-2 records, but Minnesota holds the tiebreaker between them, so if the Eagles want that top spot in the conference and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, they need to keep winning, regardless of when they clinch the N. F. C. East.
Getting back to winning could be difficult for the Eagles when they travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams (9-3,95 percent). The teams have eerily similar statistics, with both averaging 30.1 points a game. Philadelphia allows 17.9, and the Rams allow 18.5. They are close to each other in total yardage and yardage allowed, and they even have similar defensive styles, with a fantastic defensive line setting up everything by putting consistent pressure on the opposing quarterback.
This game is strength against strength: Both teams are among the top all-around teams in the N. F. L. But with the Eagles potentially playing without their top red zone scoring threat in Zach Ertz, who has yet to clear the N. F. L.’s concussion protocol, and the Rams playing at home, the scale tips to Los Angeles. Pick: Rams
Saints at Falcons, 8:25 p.m. (Thursday), NBC and NFL Network
Line: Saints by 1
The Saints (9-3,97 percent) and the Falcons (7-5,41 percent) play each other twice in the next three weeks. If one team sweeps the season series, it will go a long way toward determining the N. F. C. South (Carolina is in the mix as well). Last season, Atlanta beat New Orleans twice on its way to a division title and a Super Bowl appearance, but the Saints rebuilt through the draft, with Marshon Lattimore revamping the team’s secondary and Alvin Kamara teaming with Mark Ingram to form a devastating running back duo. At full strength, the Saints would be credible favorites on the road, but with Lattimore expected to be limited by an ankle injury, if he plays at all, the scale tips to Atlanta. Pick: Falcons
Seahawks at Jaguars, 4:25 p.m., Fox
Line: Jaguars by 2.5
It is a bit convoluted, but the Jaguars (8-4,98 percent) could clinch a playoff berth provided they win, Buffalo loses, Miami loses or ties, the Jets lose or tie and the Oakland-Kansas City game doesn’t end in a tie. For Jacksonville fans, who last saw the playoffs in 2007 and only five other times in the franchise’s 22 full seasons, that concept might be just tantalizing enough to keep a cheat sheet of all of those playoff scenarios handy. The Seahawks (8-4,76 percent) surprised a lot of people with a tremendous performance against Philadelphia last Sunday, but they will have a hard time scoring against Jacksonville on the road. Pick: Jaguars
Ravens at Steelers, 8:30 p.m., NBC
Line: Steelers by 5
The loss of Ryan Shazier to a back injury, the extent of which has not been revealed, will have an impact on the Steelers (10-2, > 99 percent) in many ways. Emotionally, they will be thinking about their team leader and wondering about his future. On the field, they will be without their most important defensive player, while also missing his backup, Tyler Matakevich, who injured his shoulder on Monday. They were able to come back to win against Cincinnati despite the injuries, with multiple players saying they rallied together for Shazier. But the reality of playing the Ravens (7-5,82 percent) with a third-string inside linebacker and without JuJu Smith-Schuster, the rookie wide receiver who was suspended over an illegal block he delivered Monday, could delay the Steelers’ clinching of the A. F. C. North, which would happen with a win or a tie. Pick: Ravens
Raiders at Chiefs, 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Chiefs by 4
A win for the Raiders (6-6,21 percent) and a loss by the Chargers would put Oakland in sole possession of the top spot in the A. F. C. West. The Raiders would still have a tough road to the playoffs, closing out their season with games against Dallas, Philadelphia and San Diego, but the fact that they can mostly control what happens is shocking after that four-game losing streak from Weeks 3 through 6.

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