Shinzo Abe\u2019s victory in a Liberal Democratic Party election reflects fatigue in Japan over a conveyor belt of leaders.<\/b>
\nTOKYO \u2014 Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won a commanding victory in a vote for the leadership of Japan\u2019s governing party on Thursday, moving him closer to his dream of becoming the longest-serving prime minister in the country\u2019s history and fueling his hopes of revising its pacifist Constitution.
Mr. Abe\u2019s win over a single challenger came despite the headwinds he faced from domestic political scandals, stagnant wages and his declining influence with President Trump, particularly in negotiations over North Korea\u2019s nuclear program.
The victory gives Mr. Abe, 63, a new three-year term as president of the Liberal Democratic Party and assures him of remaining prime minister. If he remains in office until November 2019 \u2014 just short of seven years after he was elected in December 2012 \u2014 he will surpass the previous longevity record for prime minister, set during the Meiji era in the early 20th century by Taro Katsura.
Mr. Abe faces a full slate of challenges, including towering national debt, the increasing threat of climate change-related disasters, a rapidly aging society and the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo.
\u201cCooperating with you, I\u2019d like to do my best to hand over to our children\u2019s generation a Japan filled with hope and pride,\u201d Mr. Abe said in his acceptance speech.
Above all, analysts said, Mr. Abe\u2019s signature accomplishment is his stable political leadership in a country that had grown weary of a conveyor belt of prime ministers.
Critics have been disappointed by Mr. Abe\u2019s entanglement in influence-peddling scandals and his failure to deliver stronger economic growth or the gender equality measures that he has long promised. But his opponent in the party election, Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister, failed to generate enough enthusiasm to justify a change of course.
\u201cPeople may not be wildly excited, but they can\u2019t think of anybody who is going to do any better,\u201d said Sheila A. Smith, a Japan expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. \u201cWhether it\u2019s the party or it\u2019s the Japanese voter writ large, I think they are pretty risk averse right now, given all the challenges that Japan faces, not the least of which is the Trump administration.\u201d
Next week in New York, Mr. Abe, who has persistently cultivated a cozy relationship with Mr. Trump, is expected to meet with him on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Mr. Abe could come under pressure to enter bilateral trade talks as the Trump administration mulls threatened tariffs on automobile imports.
Mr. Abe, who led Japan\u2019s effort to restart talks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a sweeping multilateral trade agreement that Mr. Trump exited during his first week in office, will have to show his resolve in resisting Mr. Trump\u2019s desire for a two-way trade deal between their nations.
Domestically, Mr. Abe\u2019s biggest test could come as he tries to revise Japan\u2019s war-renouncing Constitution, which was enacted by American postwar occupiers in 1947.
\u201cI\u2019d like to work on constitutional reform together with you,\u201d Mr. Abe said in his victory address to the Liberal Democrats. Amending the pacifist clause has long been one of his most cherished goals, as his grandfather, former Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi, tried and failed to do.
Analysts said that Mr. Abe faced considerable risks, given that any change to the Constitution has to be approved not only by Parliament, but by the general public.
\u201cIf he cannot win a national referendum it will be a suicidal act for him,\u201d said Yuichi Hosoya, a professor of international politics at Keio University in Tokyo.
A poll conducted this month by NHK, the public broadcaster, found that only 18 percent of those surveyed would support a constitutional change if a bill was submitted this fall. About a third said such submitting such a measure this fall was not necessary, leaving about 40 percent undecided.
That Mr. Abe has made it this far into a third term as party leader is a testament to a dramatic political turnaround. As prime minister for a disastrous year from 2006 to 2007, he was dogged by scandals and oversaw a catastrophic election loss.
After being elected prime minister again in 2012, Mr. Abe focused on the economy, promoting policies of low interest rates and high infrastructure spending in a platform he dubbed Abenomics. Under his leadership this time around, the Liberal Democrats have expanded their dominance in Parliament.
\u201cHe matured before he came back to the prime ministership in 2012,\u201d said Hiroshi Nakanishi, a professor of international politics at Kyoto University. \u201cI think the basis of Abe\u2019s strength is the economy.\u201d
But with a declining and aging population and debt that is more than double the size of the national economy, Mr. Abe has limited room to maneuver, particularly if a global trade war becomes a drag on growth.
\u201cThere are lots of worries, and Prime Minister Abe has already extended all sorts of means through Abenomics,\u201d said Mieko Nakabayashi, a former member of Japan\u2019s House of Representatives and now a professor in the School of Social Sciences at Waseda University, Tokyo. \u201cHe has utilized all the possible tools already.\u201d
Ordinary citizens have not necessarily felt the benefits of Mr. Abe\u2019s economic prescriptions so far.
\u201cNothing has changed,\u201d said Miwa Ishimori, 46, a caretaker in a nursing home in Saitama Prefecture outside Tokyo. \u201cOur salary hasn\u2019t changed. I want Abe-san to look after people in the lower rungs of society.\u201d
As part of his economic plan, Mr. Abe has often talked of the importance of promoting more women in the workplace and creating a society in which women can \u201cshine.\u201d Yet critics point to lugubrious progress, with Japan ranking 114th of 144 countries in the World Economic Forum\u2019s global gender equality rankings.
\u201cOn questions of the woman\u2019s role in society, I think the Abe administration has shifted into a much more social conservatism than I would have thought likely,\u201d Ms. Smith said.
With Mr. Abe\u2019s extended tenure come concerns that he and his party exert too much power in Japan, where the opposition is extremely weak.
\u201cI\u2019m worried about the situation where he stays for such a long time that no one can say \u2018no\u2019 to him,\u201d said Noriko Iwasaki, 46, an assistant at a Kabuki theater in Tokyo. \u201cIs it O. K. to have only \u2018yes\u2019 men around him as he becomes too strong?\u201d
But with so much international uncertainty, others said they appreciated a domestic even keel.
\u201cOur lives aren\u2019t so wonderful, but that\u2019s not bad,\u201d said Susumu Amano, 57, who works for a butcher in a Tokyo department store. \u201cIt\u2019s good not to see much change.\u201d<\/p>\n