The American government has demanded that Mexico halt thousands of Central Americans making their way north. But Mexico may be in a no-win situation.<\/b>
\nMEXICO CITY \u2014 When American and Mexican officials prepared to meet in Guatemala in July, one issue in particular was weighing on the United States.
A caravan of hundreds of Central American migrants had trekked through Mexico a few months before, seeking passage into the United States. American officials wanted to know: Would Mexico agree to force such migrants to apply for asylum there, instead of letting them enter the United States?
The Mexicans said no.
Today, with many thousands more in transit, by far the largest single movement of migrants north in decades, the pressure to resolve the issue has reached new heights.
With a proposal broached last July known as a \u201csafe third country agreement\u201d seemingly off the table \u2014 it has been rejected by Mexico\u2019s president-elect \u2014 Mexico again finds its migration system in a state of crisis, and in the cross hairs of American officials.
An estimated 6,000 migrants have entered Mexico in recent days, part of a new, and much larger, caravan of migrants fleeing the grinding poverty and violence of El Salvador, Guatemala and, for most of them, Honduras.
In anticipation of their arrival at the United States border, President Trump has pressured Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador and Mexico to halt their passage. But while Mexico has long bent to the migration mandates of the United States, the sheer number of those fleeing this time around has presented new complications.
Ever since 2014, when at the urging of the Obama administration the Mexican authorities began to crack down on illegal migration, migrants have been ensnared in a vast dragnet along Mexico\u2019s southern border.
Thousands have been detained and deported, while thousands more have applied for asylum inside of Mexico. Such claims have soared severalfold since the crackdown began.
But the rush of migrants in the last week has overwhelmed Mexico\u2019s Southern Border Plan. Most are not applying for asylum, leaving Mexico with a tough choice. Do they apprehend thousands of migrants, creating a humanitarian crisis \u2014 not to mention a public relations one? Or do they simply accompany the exodus to ensure an orderly passage?
It seems, for the moment, that the government has chosen the latter.
Mexico is already struggling to assimilate the surge of migrants seeking protection from the dangers back home \u2014 some 14,000 in 2017 \u2014 though Mexico itself hardly meets the definition of a safe country. Last year was its deadliest in two decades.
The incoming president, Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, who takes office in December, has been a fierce critic of the United States\u2019 handling of migrants.
In an interview, the incoming minister of foreign affairs, Marcelo Ebrard, said: \u201cWe don\u2019t agree with this, as it would be counterproductive and would aggravate the problem. Another policy is needed.\u201d
The situation also poses a challenge for Mr. Trump, who has threatened to cut aid abroad and deploy the military at home to apprehend migrants.
If the military rounds up thousands of migrants, among them women and children, it could be a public relations disaster on par with separating children from their parents at the border. But if the president opts not to do this, it might encourage still more migrants to travel in large groups.
Already, rumors of a new migrant caravan from Honduras are spreading.
\u201cIf you allow these large movements of people to come through, what does that mean for future flows?\u201d said Maureen Meyer of the Washington Office on Latin America, a human rights group. \u201cDoes this become the new way to travel? There are a lot of unknowns of how this will play out in the next few days.\u201d
In the United States, the caravan has become a political issue, particularly ahead of midterm elections next month. But the divide on whether to welcome migrants or deport them has resonated in Mexico, too.
While some Mexicans have offered food, water and free rides to those making their way through the country, others have lashed out in fear, worried the migrants might steal jobs or increase criminal activity if allowed to stay.
\u201cThere is a big social divide when it comes to this flow of immigration, between acceptance and support for them and a total rejection,\u201d said Claudia Masferrer, a migration expert at the Colegio de Mexico, a Mexico City University. \u201cThis caravan confronts Mexico with what we as a country have demanded of the U. S. vis-\u00e0-vis our own Mexican migrants.\u201d
The renewed focus on migrants from Central America in the United States comes as data from the Department of Homeland Security shows that nearly 400,000 people were apprehended on the border for the fiscal year 2018, which ended September 30.
The Border Patrol apprehended 16,658 people traveling as families in September, a record, according to unpublished government data obtained by The New York Times. Arrests for the 2018 fiscal year, meanwhile, reached 107,212, exceeding the previous high of 77,857 in fiscal 2016.
The caravan can be seen as a direct challenge to the way that the asylum system has transformed under Mr. Trump. Through policy and practice, changes imposed by his administration have sent a clear message to the world: As a place of refuge, America is largely closed for business.
\u201cThis is a reflection of what happens when you undermine orderly access to asylum,\u201d said Michelle Bran\u00e9, director of the Migrant Rights and Justice program at the Women\u2019s Refugee Commission, an advocacy group. \u201cYou get chaos. And that\u2019s what this administration has done.\u201d
The policy shifts have greatly increased the number of asylum seekers who are prosecuted criminally under the policy known as \u201czero tolerance,\u201d and eliminated large categories of persecution that no longer qualify for asylum status.
Under \u201czero tolerance,\u201d asylum seekers who enter the United States without first presenting themselves at border patrol offices automatically face criminal prosecution. By comparison, such people were prosecuted under President Barack Obama only if they had been caught crossing the border illegally in the past.
Victims of domestic violence, and to a much smaller degree, gang violence, once qualified for asylum if they could prove that the authorities in their home countries were unable or unwilling to protect them. In June, Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced that such cases would no longer qualify.
The Trump administration has also increased the scrutiny applied during the first phase of the asylum application process, known as a \u201ccredible fear interview,\u201d which determines whether migrants will be allowed to proceed with their cases. More changes are expected in this direction.
\u201cThe extremely low bar for establishing credible fear is ripe for fraud and abuse,\u201d said Michael Bars, a spokesman for United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, the federal agency that evaluates asylum claims. While a credible fear referral doesn\u2019t equal asylum status, he said, it does earn \u201ca free ticket into the U. S., allowing individuals to disappear into the interior to live and work illegally.\u201d
Newly imposed limits on the number of people who can approach certain border crossings each day, known as \u201cmetering,\u201d have also had an impact.
The long lines, with people sleeping outside to gain access, may have pushed some asylum seekers to cross the border illegally, according to a report from the Department of Homeland Security\u2019s inspector general. \u201cThe backlogs created by these competing directives likely resulted in additional illegal border crossings,\u201d the report found, meaning potential prosecution under \u201czero tolerance.\u201d
Just as tightened border policies may have led to more illegal immigration, Mr. Trump\u2019s tough-on-migrants rhetoric could also harden the stance of Mr. L\u00f3pez Obrador.
\u201cTrump\u2019s threats to Mexico makes it harder politically for the new administration to sit down and talk immigration,\u201d said Andrew Selee, president of the Migration Policy Institute, a research group. \u201cThere was always going to be trouble finding areas of agreement, but he is making a lot harder for the incoming government to deal with this issue.\u201d<\/p>\n

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