In Contention breaks down the top 10 contenders for best picture Oscar nominations this year.<\/b>
\nWith all of this year\u2019s Oscar narratives thoroughly dissected and each of the contenders mapped out, it\u2019s time for the first real assessment of this season\u2019s best picture race in this space. Below are the top 10 players as we see it, with nominations just over a month away.
(Also check out In Contention\u2019s full list of predictions in the Academy\u2019s 21 feature film categories.)
\u201cBlacKkKlansman\u201d (Focus)
Spike Lee\u2019s latest has been on a mission since scooping up the Grand Prix in Cannes back in May. It\u2019s a movie that speaks to the zeitgeist, which is always a key ingredient in the best picture derby, and it does so quite directly; footage from the 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Va., closes out the drama.
\u201cBlack Panther\u201d (Disney)
In some corners of the web, you\u2019ll uncover actual anger over a Marvel release finding itself in the Oscar discussion . \u201cSuperhero movies are for children and teens,\u201d one person sniped on Twitter when asked why so serious. OK, but what about movies that center a conversation about growing up with systemic oppression versus growing up surrounded by an encouraging sense of personal history and achievement? Who are those movies for?
\u201cThe Favourite\u201d (Fox Searchlight)
Searchlight is always in the thick of it, but the reigning best picture champ\u2019s broader play, \u201cCan You Ever Forgive Me?,\u201d appears to be struggling after a great festival-season launch. \u201cThe Favourite,\u201d however, is a consistent critics\u2019 fave that has below-the-line appeal, making it more formidable.
\u201cFirst Man\u201d (Universal)
Given the disappointing box office profile of Oscar winner Damien Chazelle\u2019s intimate moonshot drama, it would be fair to consider \u201cFirst Man\u201d the weak link here. However, a strong broadcast film critics reception (10 nominations including best picture) proves there\u2019s still passion in broad groups, e.g. the Motion Picture Academy.
\u201cGreen Book\u201d (Universal)
Perhaps the most old-fashioned of this year\u2019s contenders, \u201cGreen Book\u201d has delighted audiences since winning the People\u2019s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. It has its share of detractors, but it keeps on ticking all the same.
\u201cIf Beale Street Could Talk\u201d (Annapurna)
Barry Jenkins returns after \u201cMoonlight\u201d with another home run, a companion piece of sorts to his 2016 best picture winner. The Academy\u2019s various crafts branches are sure to swoon, and even if it might not have the wide-ranging support to win, like \u201cMoonlight,\u201d it has a fiery passion base that will get it into the running.
\u201cMary Poppins Returns\u201d (Disney)
Very little in this year\u2019s race sends you out of the theater on a cloud like \u201cMary Poppins Returns\u201d; in Hollywood, at this moment in time, that\u2019s going to count for a lot. And like \u201cThe Favourite\u201d and \u201cBeale Street,\u201d Rob Marshall\u2019s musical is mouth-watering for the various crafts branches.
\u201cRoma\u201d (Netflix)
The crown jewel of this year\u2019s lineup ( in this columnist\u2019s humble opinion) is Alfonso Cuar\u00f3n\u2019s deeply personal black-and-white meditation, and the film that could bring him a second best-director Oscar. The big question: Can a foreign language film win best picture? More to the point, can a Netflix film?
\u201cA Star Is Born\u201d (Warner Bros.)
Bradley Cooper\u2019s take on an ages-old tale looks to be the front-runner. It\u2019s been an industry favorite since the first-time director began showing it to friends and colleagues well over a year ago, a populist piece of work that fires on all cylinders, which professional filmmakers will respect.
\u201cVice\u201d (Annapurna)
Adam McKay\u2019s latest could be perceived as vulnerable, given some critical assessments, but it could not have hoped for a better launch than a field-leading six Golden Globe nominations. It\u2019s deep satire, and that either works for you or it doesn\u2019t, but it worked for enough voters on \u201cThe Big Short,\u201d McKay\u2019s previous Oscar winner. Plus, a performance like Christian Bale\u2019s does a lot of legwork.
Films just on the outside of the short list include \u201cBohemian Rhapsody,\u201d boasting far more fans in the industry than among the critical rank and file; \u201cCold War,\u201d which could make history with \u201cRoma\u201d if both foreign films are nominated; \u201cEighth Grade,\u201d a critics\u2019 favorite that could make A24 a return nominee when many counted them out; \u201cLeave No Trace,\u201d which boasts its own impressive critical profile and netted director Debra Granik a major LA film critics prize; and \u201cA Quiet Place,\u201d an AFI selection that could be an attractive option for voters looking for popular titles.
Find out which films made the cut when Oscar nominations are announced on Jan. 22.<\/p>\n