After pummeling Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti with torrential downpours and power-cutting winds, Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to take a northwesterly path roughly between Cuba and the Bahamas.<\/b>
\nJuly 30 (UPI) — After pummeling Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti Thursday with torrential downpours and power-cutting winds, Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to take a northwesterly path roughly between Cuba and the Bahamas late this week, before taking a potential track right along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. Tropical Storm Isaias, pronounced ees-ah-ee-ahs, was upgraded from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine status by the National Hurricane Center at 11 p.m. EDT Wednesday. The system strengthened as it developed a more organized center with thunderstorms wrapping around its core — and Isaias became the earliest „I-storm“ in recorded history. The prior record holder was Irene from Aug.7,2005. Isaias could become the second named system to make landfall in the United States in about a week following Hanna’s arrival in South Texas on Saturday. „There is a chance that Isaias may make landfall over the Florida Peninsula this weekend, although the possibilities of tracks range from a path into the eastern Gulf of Mexico to a near-miss or glancing blow along the southern Atlantic coast of the U. S. into next week,“ AccuWeather senior meteorologist Rob Miller said. As of 2 p.m. Thursday, Isaias was churning right along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was racing northwestward at about 20 mph. The storm was located about 95 miles west-northwest of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The center was crossing the island of Hispaniola, which consists of the countries of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and is likely to emerge along the northern coast of the island during Thursday evening. Miller stated that people should not focus on just the eye path at this point as tropical-storm-force winds extend outward by about 310 miles from the center on the storm’s northeastern, northern and northwestern flanks. When compared to that of tiny Gonzalo from last week, the tropical-storm-force winds extend farther out from the center by 285 miles. Torrential downpours, gusty thunderstorms and building seas are likely to precede Isaias by as much as 24 hours, which means that tropical storm conditions will spread northwestward across the Bahamas and Cuba during Thursday night, Friday and Saturday and should begin in Miami during Friday night or early Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions could then spread across the state over the weekend. Adding to what forecasters expect to be rapidly deteriorating conditions ahead of the sprawling tropical storm is the fact that the system is racing along at approximately twice the average speed of tropical systems for this area of the basin. All interests from the Dominican Republic and Haiti to Cuba, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada are urged to monitor the progress of Isaias. Tropical storm warnings were in effect for the central and southern Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos and portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Thursday. A tropical storm watch was in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. Isaias is forecast to be „less than one“ on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes, a more nuanced method the company introduced in 2019 to assess the potential damage a tropical system could cause, across the northern Caribbean into Friday and the southeastern United States this weekend. However, the intensity of Isaias following interaction with Hispaniola is unclear at this point. „We see some storms get beaten up so badly after crossing Hispaniola that they never recover and other storms rebound very quickly after encountering the island,“ said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Walker, who has spent more than four decades of studying the tropics and weather conditions over the Southern states. The mountains on Hispaniola reach thousands of feet above sea level with Pico Duarte reaching 10,164 feet. The mountains on Hispaniola are a major hurdle for tropical systems. How quickly Isaias departs from Hispaniola and whether or not it avoids Cuba holds the key to track, strength and potential landfall in Florida. Tropical systems need open access to warm water, typically at temperatures of 80 degrees Fahrenheit or higher, to survive. If that access to warm water isn’t realized and the flow of air is inhibited by a large land area, especially one with rugged terrain, the storm may struggle to survive. „Should Isaias get really knocked down by Hispaniola, it may tend to track more to the west, which in turn could cause further interaction with Cuba and then cause the storm to stay weak much longer,“ Miller explained. „But should Isaias quickly jump or re-form north of Hispaniola, it could rebound swiftly then spend more time over warm waters and avoid Cuba, which would then potentially allow more strengthening,“ added Miller. If the system becomes stronger in the latter scenario, then it is more likely to take a sharper curve to the north. Forecasters also cautioned that Isaias could even strengthen into a hurricane for a time, given the warm waters it may encounter along its track. „Water temperatures are near 90 F in the Gulf Stream east and south of Florida and sufficiently warm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico to allow for a tropical storm to strengthen to a hurricane,“ Walker said. As Isaias approaches North America, a non-tropical system associated with a dip in the jet stream located over the United States will likely influence its movement and strength. „We sometimes see jet stream troughs like this draw tropical systems closer in to the U. S., rather than drive them away,“ AccuWeather chief broadcast meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. For this reason, in addition to the interaction with Hispaniola, Isaias’s path this weekend to next week is still uncertain. „Landfall or a very close brush with Isaias is possible in the southeastern U. S. this weekend to early next week,“ Rayno added. The fast-forward motion of Isaias should limit the overall amount of rain, but there can still be incidents of urban flooding in the Bahamas, parts of Cuba and from Florida to the Carolinas. In these areas, from 2 inches to 4 inches of rain may fall with locally higher amounts, but precipitation amounts will be influenced by the storm’s path. A track farther to the east would bring less rain to the United States and Cuba and more rain to the Bahamas, for example. Wind gusts are likely to reach strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane strength from parts of the Bahamas to the Florida Atlantic coast. Wind gusts of 60 mph to 70 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax of 80 mph possible. Once again, the force of the wind on Cuba, the Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States will depend on the strength and track of Isaias. Florida is one of the states that has been experiencing a tremendous surge in coronavirus cases over the last month. On Wednesday, the state reported 253 COVID-19 fatalities, the third daily death record in a row, according to the Orlando Sentinel. The state has had over 6,300 deaths since the pandemic began, data from the John Hopkins University shows. With the potential for a strike by a tropical storm looming, health officials in Collier County, which encompasses Naples on the state’s Gulf Coast, announced Tuesday that two testing clinics would be shut down ahead of Isaias. A walk-up testing site in Immokalee will close down on Thursday, and one in Naples will be shuttered on Friday, officials said on Twitter. Late on Wednesday afternoon, it was announced that state-run testing sites would be closing on Thursday and remain closed through Sunday across the entire state. Meanwhile, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday urged Floridians to „prepare now by having at least seven days of disaster supplies“ on hand. The name Isaias was added to the Atlantic list after Ike caused destruction in Texas in 2008 and was retired in 2009. It has not yet been used. Could 2020 break more tropical storm records? AccuWeather’s top hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski issued an update to the numbers of tropical storms and direct impacts to the United States for the Atlantic season this week. He warned that the tropics could become „hyperactive“ as the heart of hurricane season nears, and that one area in particular should remain „very vigilant“ of the pattern setting up. Six of the nine tropical storms thus far in 2020 have set new records for early formation for their respective letters in the basin — Cristobal, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias — and more are likely to fall as the season progresses, according to forecasters. The „J-storm“ record is currently held by Jose on Aug.22,2005, with the „K-storm“ record held by the infamous Katrina, which formed on Aug.24,2005. The 10th and 11th names on this year’s tropical list are Josephine and Kyle. For more names on the 2020 Atlantic list and all tropical weather information, please visit the AccuWeather hurricane center.<\/p>\n