The start-or-sit dilemma is part of managing a fantasy football team. Having the foresight to start the wide receiver who goes for 100 yards and a touchdown in\u2026<\/b>
\nThe start-or-sit dilemma is part of managing a fantasy football team. Having the foresight to start the wide receiver who goes for 100 yards and a touchdown in a matchup while sitting a receiver against a shutdown cornerback is one of the keys to victory. For this version of a start-or-sit, I\u2019m going to be listing all relevant fantasy football players each week and placing them into tiers. And to take some of the guesswork out of it, I\u2019ll be leveraging thousands of slate simulations that are based in numberFire\u2019s player projections with dynamic measures for variance, such as quarterback rushing, running back receiving, and receiver target depth. The results will boil down to three tiers: players we should be confident about starting, players we can consider starting whenever we don\u2019t have better alternatives, but who aren\u2019t must-plays and players we should try to bench whenever we do have better alternatives. These players are listed in order of frequency of hitting the stated threshold (i.e. QB12, RB24, WR24, and TE12 performances and higher on the list means more start-able). The groupings reflect a 12-team, single-quarterback league with the following hypothetical in mind: if I had other viable options on my bench or the waiver-wire, should I start this player this week? Players not listed should be presumed sit-worthy in a shallow or standard-sized league, and all fantasy points references and rankings reflect half-PPR scoring. QUARTERBACKS Start with confidence: These players are at least 50% likely to finish the week as a top-12 quarterback, according to the slate simulations. Josh Allen vs. IND (74%) \u2014 Patrick Mahomes vs. DAL (72%) \u2014 Lamar Jackson at CHI (67%) \u2014 Dak Prescott at KC (65%) \u2014 Aaron Rodgers at MIN (59%) \u2014 Justin Herbert vs. PIT (56%) \u2014 Tom Brady vs. NYG (55%) \u2014 Jalen Hurts vs. NO (54%) \u2014 Ryan Tannehill vs. HOU (51%) Consider if needed: This tier has odds between 35% and 49% to post a top-12 week. \u2014 Tua Tagovailoa at NYJ (48%) \u2014 Cam Newton vs. WSH (46%) \u2014 Joe Burrow at LV (45%) \u2014 Derek Carr vs. CIN (45%) \u2014 Russell Wilson vs. ARI (45%) \u2014 Justin Fields vs. BAL (37%) \u2014 Mac Jones at ATL (36%) \u2014 Daniel Jones at TB (36%) \u2014 Kirk Cousins vs. GB (35%) \u2014 Jimmy Garoppolo at JAC (35%) With only two teams on byes, it\u2019s a week without a huge need for streaming. For those of us who do need streamers, the options \u2014 in theory \u2014 should be better than usual. Tua Tagovailoa fits as a traditional streamer against a New York Jets defense that ranks 32nd in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play allowed. Tua, in three games against defenses ranked outside the top 20 in adjusted pass defense, has averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game by way of 259.3 yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game. The simulations are back on Cam Newton, who had a strong goal-line role in Week 10 that led to touchdowns on his first two plays. He\u2019s \u201ctrending\u201d toward starting, according to Carolina coach Matt Rhule. He\u2019s a long-term option in addition to a Week 11 streamer. Joe Burrow has had a pretty easy schedule this year and has faced six pass defenses outside the top 20, via numberFire\u2019s metrics. In these games, Burrow has averaged 19.6 fantasy points, stemming from 297.2 yards per game and 2.2 passing touchdowns. He gets another easy matchup this week: the Las Vegas Raiders are 25th. Derek Carr is also in play in that game against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are stingier against the run (seventh by numberFire\u2019s metrics) than against the pass (20th). Notably, he has still gotten to 278.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game in his past two (without Henry Ruggs) albeit with worrisome passing efficiency. He\u2019s not a top priority, but is in the conversation if needed. The simulations definitely don\u2019t treat Russell Wilson as a must-start. He struggled mightily in his Week 10 return. Wilson generated only 161 yards on 43 drop backs. His Passing NEP per drop back of -0.38 was abysmal (NFL average is 0.11). The Arizona Cardinals are third in adjusted pass defense, as well. Since 2012, quarterbacks facing divisional opponents that are also top-six adjusted pass defenses have thrown for 300 yards in just 18% of their games (compared to a full-sample average of 26%). Bench if possible: These quarterbacks are under 35% likely (19th or worse) to net a top-12 result and likely aren\u2019t in the one-quarterback-league conversation. Trevor Lawrence vs. SF (33%); Tyrod Taylor at TEN (32%); Taylor Heinicke at CAR (31%); Matt Ryan vs. NE (28%); Carson Wentz at BUF (28%); Joe Flacco vs. MIA (26%); Jared Goff at CLE (17%); Kyler Murray at SEA (12%)(asterisk); Trevor Siemian at PHI (11%); Baker Mayfield vs. DET (7%); Case Keenum vs. DET (4%); Colt McCoy at SEA (4%); Mason Rudolph at LAC (3%); Ben Roethlisberger at LAC (3%); Taysom Hill at PHI (1%); Trey Lance at JAC (1%). \u2014 Kyler Murray\u2019s status is undecided but looks promising. RUNNING BACKS Start with confidence: These running backs are at least 60% likely to finish the week inside the top 24, according to the slate simulations. You\u2019re starting them. \u2014 Christian McCaffrey vs. WSH (88%) \u2014 Austin Ekeler vs. PIT (81%) \u2014 Najee Harris at LAC (80%) \u2014 Dalvin Cook vs. GB (80%) \u2014 Jonathan Taylor at BUF (76%) \u2014 D\u2019Andre Swift at CLE (74%) \u2014 Leonard Fournette vs. NYG (73%) \u2014 James Conner at SEA (71%) \u2014 Ezekiel Elliott at KC (69%) \u2014 Nick Chubb vs. DET (68%) \u2014 Michael Carter vs. MIA (67%) \u2014 A.J. Dillon at MIN (66%) \u2014 Joe Mixon at LV (66%) \u2014 Saquon Barkley at TB (65%) \u2014 Myles Gaskin at NYJ (65%) \u2014 Josh Jacobs vs. CIN (62%) Consider if needed: This tier is sitting between 35% and 59% for an RB2 week, and you\u2019re probably starting some of them even if they\u2019re shy of that top tier. \u2014 Eli Mitchell at JAC (58%) \u2014 James Robinson vs. SF (57%) \u2014 David Montgomery vs. BAL (57%) \u2014 Antonio Gibson at CAR (52%) \u2014 Mark Ingram at PHI (42%)(asterisk) \u2014 Darrel Williams vs. DAL (40%) \u2014 Mike Davis vs. NE (38%)(asterisk)(asterisk) \u2014 Alvin Kamara at PHI (37%)(asterisk) \u2014 Rhamondre Stevenson at ATL (36%)(asterisk)(asterisk)(asterisk) \u2014 Wayne Gallman vs. NE (35%)(asterisk)(asterisk) \u2014 Damien Harris at ATL (35%)(asterisk)(asterisk)(asterisk) I had to drop the parameter a bit from usual for this tier: to 35% from 40%. We see 16 running backs tagged with at least a 60% chance to finish as a top-24 performer this week. Again, it\u2019s a light bye week, and the state of running backs is pretty solid overall with Christian McCaffrey back and Leonard Fournette, James Conner, Michael Carter, A.J. Dillon, and Myles Gaskin no longer mired in total committees for one reason or another. That leaves little room for the next tier to get into the top 24 at a consistent rate within the slate simulations. David Montgomery wouldn\u2019t have surprised me if he had made it into the upper crust of the sims. He returned in Week 9 to play on 84.5% of the Chicago Bears\u2019 snaps and handle 13 of 17 running back carries and 2 of 2 running back targets. The main concern here would be the matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, which profiles to be extremely run-heavy. That can grind clock and reduce plays. However, after the elite role in Week 9 and a bye week to get healthier, Montgomery is not someone to bench because of the matchup unless you are flush at running back. (asterisk) Mark Ingram\u2019s RB1 status might have been short-lived, as Alvin Kamara returned to practice in a limited fashion on Wednesday. Overall, if Kamara plays, you\u2019ll be playing him. Even at a half projection, Kamara and Ingram are in the RB2\/FLEX tier. (asterisk)(asterisk) We could get replacement-level production from Wayne Gallman and Mike Davis, as Cordarrelle Patterson is unlikely to play. We\u2019ll know early in the week, as the Atlanta Falcons play the New England Patriots on Thursday to kick off Week 11. (asterisk)(asterisk)(asterisk) If you added Rhamondre Stevenson within the past two weeks or if you\u2019re awaiting for Damien Harris\u2019 return, you\u2019ll find out Thursday, which helps for lineup preparation. Similar to the New Orleans Saints\u2019 backs the simulations like both backs even at half projection well enough to consider unless we\u2019re flush with running backs at the top tier. The Atlanta Falcons rank 22nd in rushing success rate allowed to running backs. Bench if possible: These backs are under 35% likely to net a top-24 result. Zack Moss vs. IND (30%); Adrian Peterson vs. HOU (29%); Kenyan Drake vs. CIN (29%); David Johnson at TEN (29%); Devin Singletary vs. IND (27%); Devonta Freeman at CHI (26%); Tony Pollard at KC (24%); Jeremy McNichols vs. HOU (23%); J.D. McKissic at CAR (23%); D\u2019Onta Foreman vs. HOU (22%); Boston Scott vs. NO (22%); Nyheim Hines at BUF (21%); Latavius Murray at CHI (20%); Ty Johnson vs. MIA (20%). WIDE RECEIVERS Start with confidence: You\u2019re starting these guys in a 12-team league. WIDE RECEIVERS \u2014 Davante Adams at MIN (80%) \u2014 Tyreek Hill vs. DAL (80%) \u2014 Deebo Samuel at JAC (77%) \u2014 A.J. Brown vs. HOU (72%) \u2014 Stefon Diggs vs. IND (71%) \u2014 Ja\u2019Marr Chase at LV (62%) \u2014 Chris Godwin vs. NYG (60%) \u2014 CeeDee Lamb at KC (58%) \u2014 Justin Jefferson vs. GB (56%) \u2014 Keenan Allen vs. PIT (56%) \u2014 D.J. Moore vs. WSH (53%) \u2014 Marquise Brown at CHI (51%) Consider if needed: These players are more matchup dependent for this week than the tier above, but are likely where we are looking for a lot of our WR2, WR3, and FLEX plays this week. \u2014 DeVonta Smith vs. NO (49%) \u2014 Amari Cooper at KC (49%) \u2014 D.K. Metcalf vs. ARI (48%) \u2014 Mike Evans vs. NYG (48%) \u2014 Tyler Lockett vs. ARI (47%) \u2014 Brandin Cooks at TEN (47%) \u2014 Tee Higgins at LV (46%) \u2014 Diontae Johnson at LAC (46%) \u2014 Terry McLaurin at CAR (43%) \u2014 Mike Williams vs. PIT (43%) \u2014 Adam Thielen vs. GB (43%) \u2014 Jaylen Waddle at NYJ (39%) \u2014 Michael Pittman Jr. at BUF (36%) \u2014 Jakobi Meyers at ATL (35%) \u2014 Jarvis Landry vs. DET (35%) \u2014 Hunter Renfrow vs. CIN (35%) \u2014 Emmanuel Sanders vs. IND (34%) \u2014 Cole Beasley vs. IND (32%) \u2014 Christian Kirk at SEA (31%) \u2014 Allen Robinson vs. BAL (31%) There\u2019s a big tier for Week 11 of start-able receivers who are under 50% to finish as a top-24 wideout. With few byes, we don\u2019t have to get too cute, so our start\/sit decisions will come down to stronger options than usual. This also led to a change of the usual cutoff of 40%. Brandin Cooks\u2019 role keeps him relevant. In Week 9 with Tyrod Taylor back under center, Cooks saw 13 targets (a 33.3% target share) with 144 air yards (46.2% of the team\u2019s air yards). That also included awesome leverage (three downfield targets and four red zone targets), ultimately leading to just 47 yards, however. The process still keeps him very start-able in Week 11. From Week 5 onward to help account for Tee Higgins\u2019 return and Ja\u2019Marr Chase\u2019s breakout, we still see Higgins accrue 23.7% of the Cincinnati Bengals\u2019 targets while clearing 100 air yards per game. The game against the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as a back-and-forth shootout. The total is 50.0 points, and the spread is only 1.0 points in favor of the Bengals, via FanDuel Sportsbook. Michael Pittman Jr. has a tough matchup this week. The Buffalo Bills are numberFire\u2019s second-ranked adjusted pass defense overall, and they rank second in adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to opposing receivers. In three games against top-12 adjusted pass defenses, Carson Wentz, Pittman Jr.\u2018s quarterback, has averaged just 191.7 yards and 1.7 touchdowns with worrisome passing efficiency. But in these games, Pittman Jr. has a 28.2% target share with per-game averages of 10.3 targets,6.7 catches,86.3 yards and 1.0 touchdowns. Bench if possible: These players finished as a WR2 or better under 30% of the time. Marvin Jones vs. SF (29%); Michael Gallup at KC (28%); Darnell Mooney vs. BAL (27%); Corey Davis vs. MIA (27%); Nelson Agholor at ATL (27%); Rashod Bateman at CHI (27%); Kenny Golladay at TB (25%); Bryan Edwards vs. CIN (24%); Brandon Aiyuk at JAC (24%); Kendrick Bourne at ATL (24%); A.J. Green at SEA (23%); Quez Watkins vs. NO (23%); Sterling Shepard at TB (23%); Amon-Ra St. Brown at CLE (20%); Robby Anderson vs. WSH (20%); Jamison Crowder vs. MIA (20%); Marcus Johnson vs. HOU (20%); Kalif Raymond at CLE (20%). TIGHT END Start with confidence: These guys are the Big Six now. \u2014 Travis Kelce vs. DAL (81%) \u2014 Darren Waller vs. CIN (78%) \u2014 George Kittle at JAC (68%) \u2014 Kyle Pitts vs. NE (63%) \u2014 Mark Andrews at CHI (62%) \u2014 Mike Gesicki at NYJ (59%) Consider if needed: You\u2019ll likely be starting these options if you don\u2019t have a top-tier tight end. \u2014 Dalton Schultz at KC (49%) \u2014 Pat Freiermuth at LAC (43%) \u2014 T.J. Hockenson at CLE (42%) \u2014 Dan Arnold vs. SF (41%) \u2014 Hunter Henry at ATL (40%) \u2014 Jared Cook vs. PIT (39%) \u2014 Tyler Conklin vs. GB (37%) \u2014 Cole Kmet vs. BAL (36%) \u2014 Zach Ertz at SEA (35%) \u2014 Austin Hooper vs. DET (31%) With six of the slots inside the will-be top 12 considered more-likely-than-not accounted for, we see a pretty fast drop for the rest of the tight ends in top-12 odds. Dalton Schultz is part of the game of the week against the Kansas City Chiefs, who rank last in the NFL in adjusted fantasy points per target allowed to tight ends. With Michael Gallup back in the lineup last week, Schultz saw just two targets for 14 yards, but still ran 25 routes (71.4%) in a lopsided win. We don\u2019t have to bail on Schultz yet, as this game shouldn\u2019t be a blowout on either side. Pat Freiermuth remains in play even with Eric Ebron back. Ebron played just 33.3% of the Pittsburgh Steelers\u2019 snaps in Week 10, allowing Freiermuth to play on 61.7% of the snaps. Freiermuth carved out an 18.4% target share while playing alongside Mason Rudolph, who may get the start again this week. The Los Angeles Chargers are stingy against receivers (first in adjusted fantasy points per target), but soft against tight ends (30th). Since Week 5, Dan Arnold has been a key cog in the Jacksonville Jaguars\u2019 offense. He has averaged 7.4 targets per game (19.8%), targets which are generally close to the line of scrimmage (his average depth of target is 6.3 yards). Despite this, few tight ends have such a strong role; he\u2019s eighth in target market share among the position since Week 5. Bench if possible: These tight ends aren\u2019t in the starting conversation in 12-team leagues unless you\u2019re desperate. Dawson Knox vs. IND (25%); Dallas Goedert vs. NO (25%); Hayden Hurst vs. NE (25%); Evan Engram at TB (24%); Jonnu Smith at ATL (23%); Adam Trautman at PHI (22%); David Njoku vs. DET (22%); Rob Gronkowski vs. NYG (19%); Cameron Brate vs. NYG (19%); Gerald Everett vs. ARI (19%); C.J. Uzomah at LV (18%); Anthony Firkser vs. HOU (17%); Geoff Swaim vs. HOU (15%); Josiah Deguara at MIN (13%); Ricky Seals-Jones at CAR (13%); Jordan Akins at TEN (13%). ___ https:\/\/www.numberfire.com Copyright \u00a9 2021 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. 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