As Iran\u2019s regime escalates repression, the 2026 uprising exposes the limits of containment and opens an opportunity for decisive change.<\/b>
\nUS President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned that containment of the Islamic Republic has failed. The regime\u2019s behavior proves he is right \u2013 and presents a rare opportunity to end the regime at a lower cost than perpetual containment and deterrence. There is a short window to shape what comes next in Iran \u2013 before executions begin and the repression accelerates.
Despite the multi-million nationwide uprising in Iran, the Islamic Republic has shot protesters point-blank in a complete communications shutdown.
Witness accounts sent to the outside via Starlink are egregious: The wounded are located in hospitals and shot in the head; families are asked for thousands of dollars in \u201cbullet fees\u201d to receive the body of their loved ones; and the extent of the massacre is beyond comprehension, with reports indicating an overflow of bodies in morgues and conservative estimates of 20,000 Iranians shot point-blank. In the diaspora, thousands of Iranians held gatherings in front of United States embassies and consulates, begging President Trump to take military action against the Islamic Republic.
Supporting regime change in Iran is a rational strategy to reduce long-term American costs and rebalance power.
Now that deterrence and compliance have failed, the threat environment must be altered. Decisive kinetic action must be paired with coordination through the Pahlavi-led alternative to mobilize \u2013 captured in Pahlavi\u2019s latest message on January 20:
\u201cThe moment of returning to the streets will arrive: broader, stronger, more determined than ever, for the conquest of Tehran, for reclaiming Iran.\u201d
The pairing of external support with internal mobilization offers a credible path to transform Iran from a spoiler state into a status-quo power, thereby eradicating containment costs, stabilizing the regional balance, and ultimately diminishing the geopolitical leverage of Russia and China without sustained military escalation.What outside support should look like
The Islamic Republic\u2019s military was already dealt a blow with Operation Rising Lion \u2013 targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps\u2019 chain of command on the first day \u2013 followed by Operation Midnight Hammer of the United States, using GBU-57 bunker busters against the Fordow and Natanz nuclear sites, which emphasized that the United States and Israel are prepared to impose real costs.
With the recent developments, the United States\u2019 approach must evolve beyond a human-rights-only framework and openly support regime change. Outside support should be decisive and kinetic.
If Washington is serious about stopping the bloodbath and ending the destabilizing cycle of the Islamic Republic \u2013 currently under de facto curfew, waiting for headlines to fade before resuming the massacre \u2013 then President Trump should carry out targeted kinetic action against the Islamic Republic\u2019s core, and in particular, its instruments of repression and terror: the command-and-control nodes, bases, and capabilities the IRGC uses to coordinate crackdowns.
This includes the bases inside Iran housing Iraqi militias that the Islamic Republic brought to shoot Iranians \u2013 who have also targeted American bases and servicemembers in past conflicts.
The goal must be to destabilize the core of the regime and eradicate its ability to survive through repression. At the same time, ensuring direct logistical support for protesters is imperative. That means keeping Iranians connected when the Islamic Republic pulls the plug, ensuring communities can organize and endure.
The Islamic Republic wins when it isolates people, breaks coordination, and turns fear into silence. The United States should make that playbook fail by cutting the Islamic Republic\u2019s violent capacity from above while strengthening the people\u2019s ability to mobilize from below.Why the 2026 uprising looks different
What distinguishes the 2026 uprising from prior cycles is the scale paired with the clarity and consistency of slogans rallying around Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and the growing sense that a coherent alternative exists. This clarity and consistency is precisely why millions took to the streets after Pahlavi called to mobilize.
Pahlavi\u2019s message on January 14 lays out a vision of a post-Islamic Republic Iran that is defined by normalcy, stability, and reintegration with the world \u2013 what he calls the \u201creal Iran.\u201d Pahlavi\u2019s vision is built around clear policy commitments in security, diplomacy, energy, governance, and the economy.
He promises an end to the nuclear military program and an immediate halt to support for terrorist groups, paired with cooperation with regional and global partners against terrorism, organized crime, drug trafficking, and extremist Islamism. Diplomatically, he calls for normalized relations with the United States, immediate recognition of Israel, and an expanded regional framework that links Iran, Israel, and Arab states through \u201cCyrus Accords,\u201d modeled on the Abraham Accords.
Economically, he portrays Iran as a major future energy supplier with transparent policymaking and predictable pricing, alongside the adoption and enforcement of international standards, dismantling of corruption and money laundering, and opening of Iran\u2019s untapped market to trade, investment, and innovation \u2013 replacing isolation with opportunity and positioning a free Iran as a partner for peace and prosperity.Containment has failed \u2013 costs are rising
The cost of merely keeping the Islamic Republic in check has become prohibitively high. Containment through sanctions, limited deterrence, nuclear monitoring, and episodic military responses has failed to produce durable results. Instead, it has locked the United States into a cycle of constant crisis management: nuclear brinkmanship, proxy wars, maritime insecurity, and hostage diplomacy.
Each round of pressure is met not with reform but with adaptation. The Islamic Republic disperses risk through non-state proxies, and politically, it weaponizes negotiations to buy time. In effect, containment no longer constrains the Islamic Republic; rather, it subsidizes its survival by normalizing perpetual instability as an acceptable baseline. The Islamic Republic\u2019s volatility imposes escalating costs not only on the United States but also on global energy markets, regional allies, and international security architectures.Strategic payoff
A post-Islamic Republic Iran, anchored in Pahlavi-era principles, would dramatically alter the Middle East\u2019s balance of power. It would reduce the need for constant military presence, neutralize the Islamic Republic\u2019s proxy network, and stabilize key energy corridors. The United States\u2019 footing in the region would shift from reactive deterrence to a durable partnership.
It is significant that an alternative already exists in the form of the Pahlavi restoration movement. This is not an argument for foreign-imposed leadership but for strategic alignment with an indigenous movement that has already demonstrated national legitimacy, organizational maturity, and international credibility.
When a nation coherently articulates both what it opposes and what it seeks to replace it with, limiting action to soft signaling, as the European Union commonly does, will only embolden the Islamic Republic. Supporting regime change in this context is a decisive step toward stability and peace as President Trump envisions.
Continuing to manage the Islamic Republic is the most expensive and least effective option available. Supporting a credible, American-compatible Iranian alternative is strategically sound and morally consistent with the values the United States upholds. The Pahlavi alternative offers clarity where ambiguity has failed, stability where volatility has been normalized, and opportunity where containment has only prolonged crisis.
The author holds a PhD in international relations from Queen\u2019s University.<\/p>\n