The National Weather Service predicted snowfall of 4-8 inches across Mecklenburg County, but less than an inch was on the ground at Charlotte\u2019s official reporting station, Charlotte Douglas International Airport, when daybreak arrived.
What went wrong?
\u201cStorm shifted northwest at last minute,\u201d WBTV meteorologist Al Conklin tweeted to one area resident Saturday morning. \u201cIt happens. It\u2019s weather.\u201d
Or, as Conklin told viewers, \u201cWeather is not a perfect science.\u201d
Charlotte\u2019s loss was the northern Piedmont and foothills\u2019 gain. Places like Statesville, Hickory and Lenoir, where 3-5 inches were expected, instead got double that amount.
The busted forecast was similar to a storm in February 2015, which was expected to bring 4 or more inches to Charlotte \u2013 and didn\u2019t. In both cases, the rain-snow dividing line was 25 to 50 miles farther north than predicted.
Meteorologists base much of their forecasts on computer models. Those are programs that take atmospheric data, add in results from past events, and produce forecasts.
Earlier in the week, computer models showed a major winter storm affecting the Carolinas. The models also showed cold air from an arctic mass reaching the Carolinas before the precipitation arrived.
By late Thursday, one model \u2013 the North American (or NAM) \u2013 began predicting the low pressure system would cross Florida near Jacksonville. That is farther north than other models were forecasting. In addition, the NAM showed colder air not arriving as quickly as the other models showed.
Throughout the day Friday, the NAM stuck to its guns, showing a lot of rain and sleet for places like Charlotte and Raleigh. The other models predicted heavy snow.
Charlotte\u2019s TV meteorologists began preparing residents by late Friday afternoon, cautioning that snowfall totals south of the city could be much less than earlier predicted.
On Saturday morning, meteorologists like Conklin and the National Weather Service\u2019s Trisha Palmer noted that the cold air was playing catch-up with the precipitation to the southeast of I-85.
As Palmer noted, \u201cI\u2019m guessing that probably half of the residents across the area are happy with us right now, and the other half not so happy.\u201d
The air finally got cold enough for a final area of precipitation from the storm to fall as snow Saturday morning in Charlotte. But the overall impact of the system was far different than expected.<\/p>\n