Regarding the July 26 front-page article \u201cN. Korea on fast track to nuclear missile\u201d: North Korea is unlikely to use a nuclear weapon first because of the logic of deterrence. Retaliation wo…<\/b>
\nNorth Korea is unlikely to use a nuclear weapon first because of the logic of deterrence. Retaliation would be assured and universally supported. North Korea and its government would not survive. North Korea\u2019s conventional forces have threatened South Korea with unacceptable damage. But what has North Korea gotten for its trouble? Security from invasion and little else. It is subject to the most rigorous sanctions in the world, profoundly poor, isolated, anathematized, a burden to China and a problem to everyone else. That is why North Korea will not serve as a model for further proliferation. Its nuclear program is the product not only of the savage paranoia of successive North Korean regimes but also of the Cold War dynamic in which China espoused stupid positions simply to oppose sensible Western ones. That has changed. Iran provides a strong counter-example for any state that might be tempted: Attempting to develop nuclear weapons is a bad bet and will result in a huge net loss.<\/p>\n