The gap between Trump’s portrayal of events and the reality on the ground is cause for serious concern.
Following the June 12 summit between U. S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Trump and his advisers were quick to state that Kim had agreed to completely denuclearize, and, according to the president himself, North Korea was “ no longer a nuclear threat.”
Still, the administration assured skeptical observers sanctions would remain in place until Pyongyang held up its end of the deal, an apparent reference to the third of four points listed in the Trump-Kim Joint Statement, which read: “Reaffirming the April 27,2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” Yet, aside from this general commitment, the statement did not specify any timeline or actual steps Pyongyang was bound to take.
Less than a month later, the sanctions regime shows signs of weakening. Both China and Russia reportedly submitted a statement to the UN Security Council calling for the easing of sanctions, which the United States rejected. It is safe to assume that as the trade war between the U. S. and China grows, Beijing will likely be less eager to follow Washington’s line, a fissure Pyongyang has already begun to exploit.
Even more at odds with Trump’s claims are the recent reports that Pyongyang has moved right along with improvements to its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs, and now its submarine launch capabilities. To be clear, some have expressed significant doubt regarding the new intelligence reports on North Korea, and it would not be the first time the U. S. intelligence community suddenly produced intelligence for politically motivated reasons. Nevertheless, it also would not be surprising to learn Pyongyang has not deviated from its long-stated goal to develop its nuclear weapons program to the greatest extent possible: an assured ability to strike the U. S. mainland. Furthermore, as noted, nothing concrete in the Trump-Kim Joint Statement prevents Pyongyang from doing so.
The obvious truth is that no denuclearization deal currently exists. None of this is to say further negotiations cannot or will not make progress, but the gap between the Trump administration’s portrayal of events and the reality on the ground is cause for serious concern moving forward.
The inchoate nature of President Trump’s behavior and rhetoric, and, by extension, administration policy, has continued apace. The consequence is that Trump’s advisers must walk back, attempt to provide nuance to, or be forced to support the president’s demonstrably untrue statements. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testified before Congress that Trump merely meant to say the threat from North Korea had been “reduced,” not that it no longer posed a threat. He also had to admit that, despite Trump’s claim to the contrary, Pyongyang had not, in fact, returned the remains of 200 U. S. service members killed during the Korean War. Meanwhile, National Security Advisor John Bolton, who is well known to believe Pyongyang can never be trusted, has, as Abigail Tracy writes, “been reduced to repeating that Kim is ‘very emphatic’ about his desire to denuclearize.” Does he know something we don’t?
The incongruous statements coming from Washington may also indicate the administration is feuding internally over its previously sacrosanct stance on the timing and nature of North Korean denuclearization, with administration sources telling CNN Pompeo and Bolton are in constant conflict over the issue.
Before the summit, the administration claimed Pyongyang must denuclearize rapidly, that unlike past negotiations,Trump would not permit a drawn-out process.
