Here’s what we know about Biden’s chances—and what we don’t.
The outcome of the 2020 Presidential election is more uncertain than any in modern history—and nowhere is that uncertainty on better display than in Texas, a state that could very well go Democratic for the first time since 1976. Emphasize on could. Two of the most respected prognosticators—the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections—both shifted Texas from leaning or tilting Republican to a genuine toss up, while the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato places it in “Leans Republican,” just one category to the right. These ratings in themselves are extraordinary, given that the state has been reliably red for decades. The Biden campaign clearly recognizes the opportunity, announcing that vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris will travel to Texas on Friday. While Texas—and the election more broadly—could still go either way, we can tally what we know, what we can predict, and what remains unknowable (to quote Frank Drake, the founder of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, that’s “a wonderful way to organize our ignorance). What follows is a rundown of the three largest sources of uncertainty in Texas, home to 38 electoral votes—the second-most in the nation, which, were they to go to former Vice President Joe Biden, would virtually ensure his victory over the incumbent, President Donald Trump. Not much. The polls in Texas are all over the place, ranging from a 7-point margin for U.S. President Donald Trump, who won the state by 9 percentage points in 2016, to a four-point Biden victory. FiveThirtyEight’s weighted combination of these polls currently has Trump with a 1.7 percentage-point lead. How these polls define a “likely voter.” The source of the 11-point discrepancy is probably a difference in who the pollsters chose to sample, which is rarely disclosed. The uncertainty in Texas is probably not due to guesswork on who eligible voters support, but on who will actually vote. Turnout in Texas this year will greatly surpass any previous cycle. In 2016, just shy of 9 million Texans cast a vote for president, amounting to 51.4% of the voting-eligible population, according to the United States Election Project. That’s among the lowest turnout in the nation, by this metric (turnout is often reported as the percentage of registered voters who actually voted, but is better cast as the portion of everyone who could have registered to vote). As of Monday,7.8 million Texas voters had already voted (even though Texas has not made it any easier to get an absentee ballot because of the COVID-19 pandemic). Many more voters are expected to turn out on Nov.3. A recent University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll found that 75% of respondents consider it safe to vote in person on Election Day, though there’s a rift along party lines: 57% of Democrats said they felt safe compared to 91% of Republicans, suggesting Trump voters are more likely than Biden voters to vote in person.
