She’s going to Taiwan as a semi-rogue actor. At best, her trip will accomplish nothing. At worst, things could get very bad.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi is headed to Taiwan, undertaking a foreign-policy spectacle few asked for and even fewer need. Pelosi, both a liberal and a China hawk, launched her tour of Asia Sunday and has intimated she’ll end up in Taiwan, despite warnings from Chinese leaders that her arrival could provoke a military response. She will reportedly meet with Taiwan’s president on Wednesday. It would be the highest-level visit by an American official in 25 years; the Biden administration, wary of Pelosi’s potential trip to the self-governing island, still expects her to go there, though she could theoretically change her mind.
There is nothing immediately tangible that Pelosi can accomplish by going to Taiwan, which China has threatened with invasion for some time. It’s unclear how Pelosi’s unsanctioned visit will make a Chinese invasion any less likely. The speaker may inadvertently inflame tensions between China and Taiwan if she visits, putting Taiwanese citizens in danger. Though Pelosi belongs to a branch independent of the president, she will be viewed by the Chinese as an American official driving a confrontation. Military retribution — aimed at the United States, Taiwan, or both — could come next.
Hawks on both the left and right have grown far too cavalier about increasing the odds of violent conflict. Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, Democrats and Republicans alike have waved away the idea of attempting to readily deescalate military conflicts. World War II is invoked with increasing frequency. Russia must be stopped here so they don’t go there. And the subtext is China: If Americans keep flooding Ukraine with tens of billions in arms to stop Russia, China might be, in theory, deterred from a future invasion of Taiwan after seeing how another hostile world power has been isolated on the global stage.
