Experts warn this likely points to ‘regression to mean’ after recent spike in mass killings rather than continued decline
Experts warn this likely points to ‘regression to mean’ after recent spike in mass killings rather than continued decline
A shooting last weekend at a children’s birthday party in California that left four dead was the 17th mass killing in the US this year – the lowest number recorded since 2006, according to a database that tracks them.
The mass killings – defined as incidents in which four or more people are killed in a 24-hour period, not including the killer – are tracked in a database maintained by the Associated Press and USA Today in partnership with Northeastern University.
Experts warn that the drop doesn’t necessarily mean safer days are here to stay and that it could simply represent a return to average levels.
“Sir Isaac Newton never studied crime, but he says ‘What goes up must come down,’” said James Alan Fox, a criminologist at Northeastern University. The current drop in numbers is more likely what statisticians call a “regression to the mean”, he said, representing a return to more average crime levels after an unusual spike in mass killings in 2018 and 2019.
“Will 2026 see a decline?” Fox said. “I wouldn’t bet on it. What goes down must also go back up.”
Fox, who manages the database, says mass killings were down about 24% this year compared to 2024, which was also about a 20% drop compared to 2023.
