The official narrative will resonate differently inside and outside of the kingdom.<\/b>
\nSeventeen days after the disappearance of U. S.-based Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, authorities in Riyadh finally confirmed his death. According to the Saudi version of what happened, Khashoggi died after a fist fight between him and several men at the consulate in Istanbul. Authorities announced the arrest of 18 Saudi nationals, as well as the dismissal of top officials, including an adviser to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The gaps in this story are as significant as the announcement itself.
Saudi authorities did not reveal the location of Khashoggi\u2019s body, which lends credence to the narrative attributed to Turkish officials over the past two weeks. Even before Turkish authorities were allowed to search the consulate and the residence of the consul general, they suggested that Khashoggi was killed and dismembered inside the consulate. They reached this conclusion based on video footage that showed Khashoggi entered the building but never came out. In an interview with Bloomberg, the crown prince, widely known as MbS, insisted that Khashoggi left the consulate\u2014but if that were true the Saudis could have produced a body.
The spontaneous scuffle theory also does not explain the dismissal of the adviser, Saud al-Qahtani, who was perceived as MbS\u2019s right-hand man and thought by some to encourage his worst instincts. Dubbed \u201cthe father of electronic flies\u201d by his critics, he\u2019s been accused of using social media bots and trolls to lead smear campaigns against government opponents, especially in the wake of the Qatar crisis. Al-Qahtani oversaw public relations efforts abroad, and was known for combative language online. At the time of this writing, his pinned tweet read: \u201cSome brothers blame me for what they view as harshness. But everything has its time, and talk these days requires such language.\u201d
It\u2019s difficult to understand al-Qahtani\u2019s removal as anything other than a soft rebuke to MbS and his heavy-handedness by King Salman, who stepped in some days ago to manage the fallout from Khashoggi\u2019s murder. A Saudi official told me that the king\u2019s orders could perhaps alter the aggressive way that authorities deal with dissidents.
Some will no doubt speculate that the king now plans to introduce radical changes, including to the line of succession. But that extreme scenario is unlikely. MbS will most probably weather the storm, and will remain the kingdom\u2019s de facto head of state\u2014why else would the king have put MbS in charge of a ministerial committee to restructure the top command of the country\u2019s intelligence services?
To deflect blame away from MbS, Saudi officials point out that there is a standing general order that requires authorities to \u201cbring back\u201d Saudi opponents in exile, and argue that the 18 individuals botched it. MbS, according to an official quoted by Reuters, was aware of the standing order but not of the operation.
The king\u2019s visibility over the past week speaks to his value, even his indispensability as an elder statesman, and should quash the rumors that he has plans to abdicate. That was never seriously on the table.
Although the official Saudi story is incomplete, it will likely resonate with many inside of the kingdom. The king has put an end to attempts to deny Khashoggi\u2019s murder or to deflect blame on Turkey and Qatar. On social media, Saudis celebrated the announcement as a responsible move, and offered condolences to Khashoggi\u2019s family.
Outside of the kingdom, the damage from this episode may last longer. Many are convinced that MbS ordered Khashoggi\u2019s murder, or at the very least knew it was to take place. The barbarity of the crime has already hurt MbS\u2019s reputation abroad, probably beyond repair, turning former allies of the crown prince into stern critics of his policies. Millions of dollars\u2019 worth of PR efforts to promote the crown prince as a reformer appear to have gone to waste.
That doesn\u2019t mean anything of substance will change. Ultimately, it\u2019s highly unlikely that Khashoggi\u2019s death will radically alter the kingdom\u2019s foreign relations and regional role. Washington won\u2019t reorganize its alliances in the Middle East just because it\u2019s lost a fig leaf.<\/p>\n

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