The very first shiny Pokemon in Pokemon Go were introduced last year in March, and Trainers around the world had a chance to catch shiny Magikarp and<\/b>
\nThe very first shiny Pokemon in Pokemon Go were introduced last year in March, and Trainers around the world had a chance to catch shiny Magikarp and shiny Gyarados.
Until today, the game introduced more than 100 shiny Pokemon, and most of the players got a chance to catch more than 2\/3. Some caught less, while some are still thinking that Niantic has something against them and that some accounts have a higher chance to find a shiny Pokemon in the wild. Well, the part is not true\u2026it all comes down to RNG and probability.
A Pokemon Go player from Buffalo, Lvl 38 Team Mystic, made an \u2018Actual probability of finding a shiny Pokemon\u2019 research on TSR, explaining what are the chances of finding a shiny Pokemon in the wild.
\u201c The odds of tapping a single Pokemon and encountering a shiny are debatable. Some say it\u2019s 1\/256 while others say it\u2019s more like 1\/512. I\u2019ll discuss both and I\u2019ll use Makuhita as a reference.
(1\/512)
If you tap a Makuhita, the probability of it being shiny is, let\u2019s say, 1\/512. Now, this doesn\u2019t mean that tapping 512 Makuhita guarantees a shiny. The probability of finding at least one shiny Makuhita after tapping 512 Makuhita = 1 \u2013 the probability of not finding a single shiny Makuhita.
This equals to 1 \u2013 (511\/512)512 = 0.632 or 63.2% chance. That is less than two third! There is a whopping 36.8% chance you won\u2019t see a single shiny Makuhita after tapping 512 Makuhitas. Similarly, If you tap 1000 Makuhitas, the probability of finding at least one shiny = 1 \u2013 (511\/512)1000 = 0.8585
That is still a 14.15% chance of not finding a shiny Makuhita after 1000 \u2018seen\u2019.
(1\/256)
Similarly, If we take the probability of a Pokemon being shiny as 1\/256, the probability of not finding a single shiny after: 256 \u2018seen\u2019 = 36.72% 512 \u2018seen\u2019 = 13.48% 1000 \u2018seen\u2019 = 2% .\u201d
Basically, it\u2019s just a random luck, because they are very rare and there is no way that one can increase the chance of finding a shiny Pokemon. With all that being said, it\u2019s all about RNG and Probability!
For last, all credit goes to \u2018our math teacher\u2019 kramer753, and big thanks for letting us use his research. Don\u2019t forget to give him an upvote for his hard work!<\/p>\n