A senior Ukrainian intelligence official suspected Russia itself was behind the attack, while a former senior U.S. intelligence officer doubted that theory.<\/b>
\nA brazen attack against a Russian oil depot in the border region of Belgorod has elicited international attention but few answers, as Ukrainian officials deflected accusations of their country’s involvement in the attack and some even alleged Moscow itself had staged the strike. But one former senior U.S. intelligence officer cast doubt on that explanation. Shortly after news of the attack on the fuel site roughly 18 miles from the border emerged Friday, Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed the fiery scene was the result of airstrikes conducted by two Ukrainian Air Force helicopters that entered Russian airspace at low altitude. Footage purporting to depict the moment of the attack was later broadcast, showing what appeared to be a series of strikes against the facility and two Mi-24 helicopters fleeing the scene near to the ground. At a press conference in Poland, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he could neither confirm nor deny the attack. Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk took a similar stance when speaking to reporters. \u00ab\u00a0I want to note that as of today, the Ukrainian state is carrying out a defense operation to repel armed Russian aggression on the territory of Ukraine,\u00a0\u00bb Motuzyanyk said. \u00ab\u00a0And this does not mean at all that Ukraine should be responsible for all miscalculations and all catastrophes, all events taking place on the territory of the Russian Federation.\u00a0\u00bb Noting that this was not the first time Kyiv had been accused of cross-border attacks, he said he \u00ab\u00a0will neither confirm nor deny this information.\u00a0\u00bb A senior Ukrainian intelligence official who spoke to Newsweek on the condition of anonymity said with \u00ab\u00a099.9%\u00a0\u00bb certainty that the attack was actually a Russian strike conducted deliberately to place the blame on Ukraine. The official saw it as a potential tactic to drum up further support for Russia’s embattled troops as they pivot their strategy away from stalled offensives deep in Ukrainian territory to refocus on the eastern Donbas region, where pro-Moscow separatists first took up arms eight years ago. This part of the country, home to the self-proclaimed, Russia-recognized Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), is far more accessible and easy to operate in for Russia than it is for Ukraine. \u00ab\u00a0In order to fly to Belgorod, it was necessary to fly through the entire territory of the DPR unnoticed and return back,\u00a0\u00bb the senior Ukrainian intelligence official said. \u00ab\u00a0Do you think this is real?\u00a0\u00bb But one former senior U.S. counterintelligence officer with extensive work dealing with Russia was less swayed by the \u00ab\u00a0false flag\u00a0\u00bb narrative, telling Newsweek that \u00ab\u00a0the term false flag is being used so much, it’s almost as ‘fake news’ is being used here.\u00a0\u00bb \u00ab\u00a0Nothing I see implies a false flag,\u00a0\u00bb the former senior U.S. counterintelligence officer said. \u00ab\u00a0More likely alternative hypotheses are Ukraine confusion about their own ops or Russian sabotage. But this looks like a legit attack to me.\u00a0\u00bb While Kyiv has opted to pursue an ambiguous stance, other Ukrainian figures familiar with the matter echoed the senior Ukrainian intelligence official’s suspicions that Moscow may have been behind the attack. A source close to President Volodymyr Zelensky, who also asked not to be named, expressed to Newsweek a belief that the Russians were responsible for the incident. Similar comments came from Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada. Oleksandr Merezhko, the chair of the Rada’s foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek he was \u00ab\u00a0sure\u00a0\u00bb the attack was a false flag. \u00ab\u00a0I was expecting something like that to happen,\u00a0\u00bb he said. \u00ab\u00a0It t was just a matter of time.\u00a0\u00bb \u00ab\u00a0Putin is desperate because he sees that his image and the image of Russia has been tarnished forever due to numerous crimes,\u00a0\u00bb Merezhko said. \u00ab\u00a0He needs pretext to somehow justify his actions and accuse Ukraine. The world doesn’t believe him because he is a pathological liar, but he needs something for his brainwashed population.\u00a0\u00bb \u00ab\u00a0It’s his typical style of the provocateur,\u00a0\u00bb he added. \u00ab\u00a0To bomb territory of Russia is absolutely not in the interests of Ukraine and everyone understands it. I’m afraid that Putin’s provocations are ahead of us \u2014 possibly with the use of chemical or biological weapons.\u00a0\u00bb Iuliia Mendel, President Zelensky’s former press secretary, told Newsweek that her \u00ab\u00a0first guess\u00a0\u00bb was that the attack was a Russian false flag. Mendel stressed she could not \u00ab\u00a0be 100 percent sure,\u00a0\u00bb and noted that Kuleba refused to confirm or deny Ukrainian involvement. \u00ab\u00a0Russia has planned provocations to try to escalate the situation,\u00a0\u00bb Mendel said. She noted Moscow’s history of false flag attacks, disinformation, and propaganda, and said that Russia’s poor battlefield performance has left the Kremlin in a difficult negotiating position. Putin might see escalation as a way to regain leverage, Mendel said. \u00ab\u00a0Russia’s behavior is unpredictable, illogical and based on instinctive moves rather on well-balanced positions,\u00a0\u00bb she said. \u00ab\u00a0It would be incorrect to look for some logical purpose for this war. The Kremlin successfully grows hatred in its people towards Ukrainians with propaganda. This means Moscow needs to continue mass murders and devastation of Ukraine.\u00a0\u00bb Whether false flag or not, the attack on Belgorod could prove costly for Russia. It is not clear how much fuel was destroyed in the explosion and subsequent fire, but the incident may further weaken Russia’s logistics networks, which so far have proven insufficient in supporting the invasion. Asked whether the Russians would be willing to absorb such costs, Mendel said, \u00ab\u00a0I think [attacking an] oil depot makes lies look more truthful.\u00a0\u00bb Kyiv and Moscow have repeatedly accused one another of conducting \u00ab\u00a0false flag\u00a0\u00bb attacks as justification for military operations, and both sides have utilized extensive information warfare in an attempt to control the narrative of the war in their favor. But unlike other events that Ukraine and its foreign supporters, especially the United States, have dismissed as Russian hoaxes, the attack in Belgorod has received comparatively less attention in Russian state-run media. Rather than amplify the threat, outlets have sought to downplay the damage dealt by the strike. An alternative explanation offered by Russian military expert Alexey Leonov in an interview with the Moscow-based newspaper Moskovskaya Komsomolets is that \u00ab\u00a0the helicopter attack was a planned, coordinated operation for which intelligence agencies of NATO countries participated in the preparations.\u00a0\u00bb In this scenario, \u00ab\u00a0NATO provided information on the Russian air defense systems operating in the area of the route,\u00a0\u00bb he said. \u00ab\u00a0I think it was NATO specialists who, taking advantage of the local terrain, laid out the route by which the helicopters crossed the Russian border and attacked the oil depot,\u00a0\u00bb Leonov argued. \u00ab\u00a0There is no other way the helicopters would have been able to penetrate our territory. They knew the situation, and information about the situation was given to them by U.S. satellite reconnaissance.\u00a0\u00bb Belgorod Governor Gladkov, for his part, claimed in follow-up statements on the attack in his region that there were \u00ab\u00a0no fuel shortages, there never will be\u00a0\u00bb as service had already been redirected to other nearby sites. The situation, he said, was \u00ab\u00a0stable.\u00a0\u00bb The U.S., which has supported Ukraine politically, economically and militarily throughout the conflict and the eight-year war that preceded it against insurgents in the Donbas, has been largely quiet on the attack. \u00ab\u00a0We are aware of the news reports but have nothing to provide at this time,\u00a0\u00bb a Pentagon spokesperson told Newsweek. Russia, for its part, has also far avoided a strong reaction to the attack, which authorities said damaged at least seven facilities at the Belgorod oil depot. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned, however, that the incident could hamper ongoing negotiations between the two sides geared toward resolving the conflict. \u00ab\u00a0Clearly, it’s not what could create conditions for further talks,\u00a0\u00bb Peskov said, according to the state-run Tass Russian News Agency. But he refrained from further speculation on the incident. \u00ab\u00a0It’s not for us at the presidential administration to provide assessments,\u00a0\u00bb Peskov said. \u00ab\u00a0It is professionals and law enforcement agencies that should do that.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n