While a shock poll out of Iowa conducted by the highly regarded Selzer & Company found Vice President Kamala Harris actually winning by three points in the Hawkeye State, and seemed to forecast the potential for a landslide Harris victory, most final polling done ahead of Tuesday\u2019s General Election found the Democratic candidate running even with former President Donald Trump.<\/b>
\nNationwide polls remain locked within their margins of error as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris race through the final 48 hours before Election Day, trying to scramble every last vote to potentially decide the race.
While a shock poll out of Iowa conducted by the highly regarded Selzer & Company found Vice President Kamala Harris actually winning by three points in the Hawkeye State, and seemed to forecast the potential for a Harris victory or at least point to an advantage other pollsters are missing, an Emerson College poll in Iowa released Saturday found Trump up by 10.
Emerson College\u2019s last national survey of likely voters found \u201cformer President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris with 49% support each among US voters. One percent support a third-party candidate and one percent are undecided.\u201d
TIPP\u2019s daily tracking poll has shown Harris stalled at 48% support for the last nine days, with Trump dancing both above and below that line throughout. Their survey released Sunday shows the former President is now \u201cholding a narrow 49% \u2013 48% lead\u201d but that there is plenty of room for either candidate to convince voters to make a choice.
\u201cThis late surge highlights stark divides across demographics like age, education, race, and region, pinpointing where both campaigns are doubling down in these final hours. Significantly, 6% of voters report they could still change their minds, underscoring how every moment could prove decisive as the race barrels toward Election Day,\u201d TIPP wrote.
An ABC\/Ipsos poll found the end of the election marked by a \u201cdispirited electorate,\u201d a majority of whom feel the country is headed in the wrong direction and aren\u2019t pleased with their choice of presidential candidates, but who nevertheless stand narrowly divided over which they might choose.
\u201cHarris has 49 percent support among likely voters in this final-weekend ABC News\/Ipsos poll,
Trump 46 percent. Reflecting the country\u2019s locked-in polarization, support for these candidates
hasn\u2019t changed significantly since Harris stepped in to replace Joe Biden last summer,\u201d wrote Langer Research, which conducted the poll.
That three-point split, according to those pollsters, has been seen \u201cin the last eight presidential elections, of which Democrats won the popular vote in seven. Regardless, the result leaves a wide-open field for the vagaries of the Electoral College.\u201d
The Electoral College could be decided in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where a Harris or Trump victory could spell disaster for the other\u2019s campaign, and where the candidates remain equally split.
The most recent New York Times\/Siena poll of around 1,000 likely Michigan voters found the pair tied at 47% support each, while an Atlas Intel survey showed Trump ahead by two points among around 1,200 likely voters. The most recent Marist survey of 1,200 Michiganders showed Harris ahead by three.
In Pennsylvania, the New York Times\/Siena poll found 48% for both candidates among a pool of about 1,500 likely Keystone State voters. That comes as the Atlas Intel poll found Trump up by two points and Marist\u2019s poll showed Harris leading by the same amount.
Wisconsin leans toward Harris by two points, according to the New York Times\/Siena survey, while Atlas says Trump is up by one point and Marist showed a two-point lead for the vice president.
According to a memo released by the Trump campaign on Sunday, only some of the polling is getting it right. The campaign claimed that the Selzer poll out of Iowa and the New York Times\/Siena survey are meant only to serve as a \u201cvoter suppression narrative against President Trump\u2019s supporters.\u201d
\u201cThe New York Times even helpfully admitted in their story that they had a harder time reaching Republican voters than in their 2020 polls, which were notoriously inaccurate,\u201d Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote. \u201cThe NBC and Emerson surveys largely confirm the polls released by Atlas Intel, rated America\u2019s most accurate pollster in 2020, showing President Trump with a 1-point lead nationally and ahead in the battleground states.\u201d
Trump, both during a Sunday rally in Pennsylvania and via his Truth Social Media platform, seemed to suggest the Iowa pollster \u2014 who he has praised in the past \u2014 has suddenly turned against him. The former president erroneously declared that \u201call polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up.\u201d
\u201cBy a lot!\u201d he wrote in all caps.
A Harris-Walz campaign spokesperson, responding to Trump\u2019s rally remarks, said in a statement that the former president is demonstrating his desperation as the campaign draws to a close.
\u201cTrump is spending the closing days of his campaign angry and unhinged, lying about the election being stolen because he\u2019s worried he will lose. The American people deserve a leader who tells the truth and will walk into the Oval Office focused on them \u2013 that\u2019s Vice President Harris,\u201d the spokesperson said.
As the national polls tighten, so too have betting markets, moving dramatically Saturday night and into Sunday toward Harris.
Trump was as low as a -123 favorite Sunday at Betfair Exchange in London to win the election over Harris, a +120 underdog. The former president had been favorited as high as -210 on Wednesday. The current odds mean bettors must wager $123 to win $100 on Trump to be elected and $100 to win $120 on Harris to be elected.
\u201cThis is beginning to shape up like the 50-50 race we anticipated when the matchup was set in July,\u201d BetOnline.ag political oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty said. \u201cThe betting markets were following the large amount of money being wagered on Trump, but now we\u2019re seeing the smarter bettors come in and grab all the value that is left with Harris. I expect to see (the) odds get close to a toss-up by Election Day.\u201d<\/p>\n