Might a movie break the record for most nods for a single movie?<\/b>
\nThe holidays are over, but the Christmas Adventurers no doubt are still celebrating. The \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d blimp rests, for now, in its hanger. Chlo\u00e9 Zhao is clearing her mind. And I still have that Neil Diamond song stuck in my head.
All of which brings us to the unveiling of nominations for the 98th Oscars on Thursday. Might Paul Thomas Anderson\u2019s \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d or Ryan Coogler\u2019s \u201cSinners\u201d tie or even break the record for most nods for a single movie? Fourteen is the magic number, held by \u201cAll About Eve,\u201d \u201cTitanic\u201d and \u201cLa La Land.\u201d Somewhere, James Cameron is clutching his crown tightly.
Here are my predictions in key categories.Picture
\u201cBugonia\u201d
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d
\u201cHamnet\u201d
\u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d
\u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
\u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
\u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d
\u201cSentimental Value\u201d
\u201cSinners\u201d
\u201cTrain Dreams\u201d
Possible surprise: \u201cWeapons\u201d
Possible snub: \u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d
No \u201cWicked: For Good\u201d? No \u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash\u201d? The pair of high-profile sequels failed to live up to their predecessors, critically and commercially, leaving the door open for the academy\u2019s international contingent \u2014 24% of Oscar voters live outside the United States \u2014 to wave the flags of their countries. The last two years we\u2019ve had two international features nominated for best picture. \u201cAnatomy of a Fall\u201d and \u201cThe Zone of Interest\u201d made the cut in 2024; \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez\u201d and \u201cI\u2019m Still Here\u201d found their way in last year. It\u2019s possible we see a record three this year: France\u2019s \u201cIt Was Just an Accident,\u201d Brazil\u2019s \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d and Norway\u2019s \u201cSentimental Value.\u201d
Voters do have other options for the back end of the 10-picture slate. \u201cF1\u201d looks on track to earn Oscar nods for film editing, sound and visual effects. Maybe that below-the-line love catapults it in. Zach Cregger\u2019s \u201cWeapons\u201d earned a place at the Producers Guild, even with writer-director Cregger off filming \u201cResident Evil,\u201d removing him from the awards circuit. Perhaps Aunt Gladys has been busy casting spells in her bedroom, working her magic on the film\u2019s behalf, though I\u2019m not sure how she\u2019d obtain a personal item from more than 10,000 voters. She\u2019d have to be busier than Diane Warren.Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Ryan Coogler, \u201cSinners\u201d
Jafar Panahi, \u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d
Josh Safdie, \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
Chlo\u00e9 Zhao, \u201cHamnet\u201d
Possible surprise: Guillermo del Toro, \u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Possible snub: Panahi
The Directors Guild nominated Anderson, Coogler, Safdie, Zhao and del Toro. But the Oscar field has included one international director for seven straight years, making it likely that dissident filmmaker Panahi, a vocal critic of Iran\u2019s authoritarian regime, earns a nomination for his blistering movie about resistance. That spot could also go to Joachim Trier, the director and co-writer of \u201cSentimental Value,\u201d a family drama that sneaks in some sharp satire about the sorry state of filmmaking these days.Actor
Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
Leonardo DiCaprio, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Ethan Hawke, \u201cBlue Moon\u201d
Michael B. Jordan, \u201cSinners\u201d
Wagner Moura, \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d
Possible surprise: Jesse Plemons, \u201cBugonia\u201d
Possible snub: Moura
If Chalamet had won last year for playing Bob Dylan in \u201cA Complete Unknown,\u201d he would have become the youngest lead actor Oscar winner in history. That he lost to Adrien Brody (\u201cThe Brutalist\u201d), still the only actor to win the trophy under the age of 30 (for \u201cThe Pianist\u201d), adds a nice little twist to this bit of Oscar trivia. As it is, Chalamet seems well-positioned to eradicate voters\u2019 bias against all the young dudes, his charismatic performance keeping you in the corner of \u201cMarty Supreme\u2019s\u201d often repellent narcissist.Actress
Jessie Buckley, \u201cHamnet\u201d
Rose Byrne, \u201cIf I Had Legs I\u2019d Kick You\u201d
Chase Infiniti, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Renate Reinsve, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d
Emma Stone, \u201cBugonia\u201d
Possible surprise: Kate Hudson, \u201cSong Sung Blue\u201d
Possible snub: Infiniti
Demi loves her. So does Reba and, of course, her mom, Goldie. In fact, it\u2019d be surprising to find a mononym star who hasn\u2019t stumped for Hudson and her star turn \u201cSong Sung Blue,\u201d though, thinking about it, Bj\u00f6rk doesn\u2019t feel like the right fit for a movie about a husband-and-wife Neil Diamond tribute band. (But I bet she\u2019d be bringing down the house covering \u201cI Am\u2026 I Said.\u201d) It\u2019s easy enough to root for Hudson and her comeback turn (was she ever really gone?), which could lead to her first nomination since her spectacular arrival a quarter-century ago (!) in \u201cAlmost Famous.\u201d But among the five likely nominees, who would you boot? I\u2019m a believer in each and every one of them.Supporting actor
Benicio Del Toro, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Jacob Elordi, \u201cFrankenstein\u201d
Paul Mescal, \u201cHamnet\u201d
Sean Penn, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Stellan Skarsg\u00e5rd, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d
Skarsg\u00e5rd, so good as the irascible father and legendary auteur in \u201cSentimental Value,\u201d didn\u2019t get a nomination from the Actors Awards, guaranteeing this category will keep us guessing until the envelope is opened. Only three actors (Marcia Gay Harden for \u201cPollock,\u201d Christoph Waltz for \u201cDjango Unchained\u201d and Regina King for \u201cIf Beale Street Could Talk\u201d) have won an Oscar without an actors guild nod. But Skarsg\u00e5rd has already had a moment, winning the Golden Globe and giving perhaps the night\u2019s best speech, self-deprecating \u2014 talking about how raising eight children taught him how to be a bad father \u2014 and passionate. \u201cCinema should be seen in cinemas.\u201d That might not move Ted Sarandos, but I\u2019m sure he picked up a few votes with that capper. (Note: No surprise or snub here. These are the nominees.)Supporting actress
Odessa A\u2019zion, \u201cMarty Supreme\u201d
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, \u201cSentimental Value\u201d
Amy Madigan, \u201cWeapons\u201d
Wunmi Mosaku, \u201cSinners\u201d
Teyana Taylor, \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d
Possible surprise: Ariana Grande, \u201cWicked: For Good\u201d
Possible snub: A\u2019zion
\u201cWicked\u201d won two Oscars last year \u2014 production design and costume design \u2014 from 10 nominations, recognition that included picture and nods for actors Cynthia Erivo and Grande. The meh reviews (though the movie has its fans among critics) and diminished box office lowered Oscar expectations for the sequel. But seeing Grande, whose Glinda is the center of the new film, slip down the list of expected nominees has been one of more surprising developments of this awards season. She might still turn up, but I\u2019m thinking the field belongs to the quartet of women from best picture nominees plus the undeniable, unrecognizable turn from Madigan in \u201cWeapons.\u201dOriginal screenplay
\u201cIt Was Just an Accident,\u201d Jafar Panahi
\u201cMarty Supreme,\u201d Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein
\u201cSorry, Baby,\u201d Eva Victor
\u201cSentimental Value,\u201d Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
\u201cSinners,\u201d Ryan Coogler
Possible surprise: \u201cThe Secret Agent,\u201d Kleber Mendon\u00e7a Filho
Possible snub: \u201cSorry, Baby\u201d
With \u201cSorry, Baby,\u201d writer-director Victor looked at the aftermath of sexual assault with wit and wry humor, employing an unconventional, nonchronological structure in its portrait of a woman grappling with trauma and refusing to be defined by it. \u201cSorry, Baby\u201d was a hard movie to market, and it didn\u2019t find the audience it deserved when it arrived in theaters over the summer. But its fans are a passionate bunch \u2014 Julia Roberts gave it a powerful plug at the Golden Globes, calling Victor her \u201chero\u201d \u2014 and I\u2019m wishing, hoping, thinking there are enough of them to put the film among the nominated screenplays.Adapted screenplay
\u201cBugonia,\u201d Will Tracy
\u201cFrankenstein\u201d Guillermo del Toro
\u201cHamnet,\u201d Chlo\u00e9 Zhao and Maggie O\u2019Farrell
\u201cOne Battle After Another,\u201d Paul Thomas Anderson
\u201cTrain Dreams,\u201d Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
This group looks set, though I\u2019d sub in Park Chan-wook\u2019s \u201cNo Other Choice\u201d for \u201cBugonia,\u201d Park\u2019s movie offering a more humane \u2014 and funnier \u2014 look at ugly things people can do when desperate. Park still has never been nominated for an Oscar, despite a resume that includes \u201cDecision to Leave\u201d and \u201cThe Handmaiden.\u201dInternational feature
\u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d
\u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d
\u201cSentimental Value\u201d
\u201cSir\u0101t\u201d
\u201cThe Voice of Hind Rajab\u201d
Possible surprise: \u201cNo Other Choice\u201d
Possible snub: \u201cThe Voice of Hind Rajab\u201d
This could be the spot for Park. If \u201cNo Other Choice,\u201d \u201cIt Was Just an Accident,\u201d \u201cThe Secret Agent\u201d and \u201cSir\u0101t\u201d are nominated, it would give Neon a clean sweep of the category, a heady accomplishment for the adventurous indie studio. Of course, four out of five wouldn\u2019t be bad either, and I have a suspicion that Venice Grand Jury Prize winner \u201cThe Voice of Hind Rajab\u201d breaks through the Neon logjam. Tunisian director Kaouther Ben Hania\u2019s movie sensitively tells the crushing story of a 6-year-old girl killed in Gaza, blending drama and documentary in a way that has left audiences sobbing. Ben Hania has seen two of her movies nominated \u2014 the 2020 feature \u201cThe Man Who Sold His Skin\u201d and the 2023 documentary \u201cFour Daughters\u201d \u2014 and \u201cHind Rajab\u201d looks poised to return her to the ceremony.Animated feature
\u201cArco\u201d
\u201cElio\u201d
\u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d
\u201cLittle Am\u00e9lie or the Character of Rain\u201d
\u201cZootopia 2\u201d
Sony Pictures Animation\u2019s \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d is the most-streamed movie in Netflix\u2019s history, passing half a billion views in late December, including one from the kids at the New Year\u2019s Eve party at my house. \u201cZootopia 2\u201d got some eyeballs, too, becoming Walt Disney Animation Studios\u2019 highest-grossing animated film. There\u2019s a lot of separation between that pair and the remaining contenders.Documentary feature
\u201c2000 Meters to Andriivka\u201d
\u201cThe Alabama Solution\u201d
\u201cCover-Up\u201d
\u201cMy Undesirable Friends: Part 1 \u2014 Last Air in Moscow\u201d
\u201cThe Perfect Neighbor\u201d
Possible surprise: \u201cApocalypse in the Tropics\u201d
Possible snub: \u201cThe Perfect Neighbor\u201d
The academy\u2019s documentary branch often seems to take a perverse delight in ignoring popular favorites (\u201cHoop Dreams,\u201d \u201cFahrenheit 9\/11,\u201d \u201cGrizzly Man,\u201d \u201cStill: A Michael J. Fox Movie\u201d), so it would not be all that surprising to see Netflix\u2019s chart-topping, true-crime doc \u201cThe Perfect Neighbor\u201d become the latest casualty.
Netflix has two other contenders: \u201cCover-Up,\u201d a riveting portrait of investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, directed by Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus, and Petra Costa\u2019s \u201cApocalypse in the Tropics,\u201d which examines Brazil\u2019s rightward political shift. Harsh realities in Russia inform another trio of potential nominees. Critics group favorite \u201cMy Undesirable Friends\u201d is a harrowing look at journalists in Putin\u2019s Russia, while \u201c2000 Meters to Andriivka\u201d follows a Ukranian platoon\u2019s mission to liberate a Russian village. Meanwhile, closer to home, \u201cThe Alabama Solution\u201d is a damning indictment of prison conditions in its titular state as well as America.
Not much to feel good about here, which, given the state of the world, feels about right.<\/p>\n