BEIJING \u2014 President Donald Trump\u2019s decision to\u00a0 cancel a Pacific rim trade deal was greeted as a sign of a U. S. retreat from Asia and a boon for China, which hadn\u2019t been included in it.
The Chinese government \u2014 a longtime critic of the Trans-Pacific Partnership \u2014 opted not to gloat, however, instead signaling Tuesday a cautious approach to the new U. S. administration and concern for what comes next.
While the U. S. withdrawal from the treaty could boost China\u2019s role in the Pacific, Beijing is more preoccupied by what else the Trump administration may have planned for the region.
As a candidate, Trump made China and trade regular talking points. He vowed, among other things, to scrap the TPP, list China as a currency manipulator and slap an eye-popping 45 percent tariff on imported Chinese goods.\u00a0
The TPP deal was all-but-dead by Monday, but the other threats still stand \u2014 and that is what\u2019s bothering Beijing.
\u201cIt could be counted as good news for China that the pressure of TPP is now gone,\u201d said Tu Xinquan, an trade expert at Beijing\u2019s University of International Business and Economics. \u201cHowever, there is great uncertainty as to whether China stands to benefit.\u201d
[ Trump kills TPP, giving China its first big win ]
Monday\u2019s announcement was the end of a long, slow death for a trade deal that in some ways defined the Obama administration\u2019s thwarted vision for renewed U. S. engagement in Asia-Pacific.
The agreement aimed to reduce trade barriers and tariffs across 12 countries incorporating nearly 40 percent of the global economy, including Japan, Australia, Singapore and Vietnam, but excluding China.\u00a0
It also included provisions that would compel countries to comply with rules on labor and intellectual property rights, potentially spurring\u00a0 domestic economic reforms in countries like Vietnam.\u00a0
The Obama administration pitched it as a way to spur U. S. growth by opening Asian markets and exercising U. S. leadership. Critics, including supporters of both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, called it a threat to U. S. jobs.
The plan was popular among U. S. allies in Asia, particularly Japan, the world\u2019s third-largest economy.\u00a0
Even after Trump made good on his promise to withdraw from the trade deal, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe signaled that he would continue trying to convince the new American president of its benefits.
\u201cI believe President Trump recognizes the importance of free and fair trade and I\u2019d like to concentrate on getting him to understanding the strategic and economic significance of the TPP agreement,\u201d Abe told the Diet, or Japanese parliament, Tuesday morning.
The Diet had just ratified the deal on Friday, despite its dim prospects. Still, it was a crucial part of the prime minister\u2019s \u201cAbenomics\u201d plan to overhaul the Japanese economy and inject new momentum into it after two decades of stagnation.
Officials made clear that Japan would not try to keep the deal alive if the United States was not a part of it. \u201cThe TPP agreement will be meaningless without the U. S.,\u201d Koichi Hagiuda, deputy chief cabinet secretary, told reporters.\u00a0
The concern for Japan, and for others in the region, is that an \u201cAmerica first\u201d foreign policy will mean poorer economic prospects and a broader role for Beijing.
Scrapping the TPP will likely bolster support for Chinese regional trade regimes. The Philippines and Singapore are already shifting toward the Beijing-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, for instance.\u00a0
[ 4 things to watch now that the U. S. has withdrawn from TPP trade deal ]
On Monday, New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English said his country did not have the option of not pursuing new deals. \u201cWe don\u2019t have the choice America has. It\u2019s big enough that they can make a living selling things to themselves,\u201d he said. He added, \u201cWe have to trade.\u201d
\u201cChina is actually now in a great position to assume a leadership role as the leading proponent for regional integration in the region,\u201d said Davin Chor,\u00a0an associate professor in the Department of Economics at the National University of Singapore. \u201cI do foresee the Chinese being more vocal and active in advocating for regional trade agreements centered around the Chinese economy.\u201d
All this could help China increase its global clout.
\u201cChina had been afraid that the U. S. would use the TPP to economically encircle China in Asia,\u201d said Victor Shih, an associate professor at the University of California at San Diego\u2019s School of Global Policy and Strategy. \u201cWith the abandonment of TPP, Chinese leaders are likely breathing a sigh of relief and actively thinking of ways to further consolidate China\u2019s dominance in Asia and beyond.\u201d
What\u2019s striking, though, is that Chinese experts seem more concerned with Trump\u2019s foreign policy than convinced a golden era is on the way.
Hu Xingdou, an economist at Beijing Institute of Technology, said he was \u201cnot too optimistic\u201d about China\u2019s prospects. The new U. S. president \u201cwill pursue protectionism,\u201d he said, and is appearing to China as its \u201cthe biggest enemy.\u201d
Tu, the trade expert at Beijing\u2019s University, said it was hard to see a positive outcome when an all-out trade war is a possibility. President Trump, after all, seems \u201crather wayward,\u201d he said.
Luna Lin reported from Beijing.\u00a0
Read more:
Withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership shifts U. S. role in the world economy
The TPP is dead. What was it?
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