China believes there is the \u00ab\u00a0highest possibility\u00a0\u00bb of a nuclear test on April 25, but \u201cdoes not leave out the possibility it might take action in early May, \u201d Boxun News said.<\/b>
According to a report by Korea JoongAng Daily, China appears to be preparing measures in case North Korea tests a nuclear device or performs another provocation, including possibly suspending oil to the regime, and adds that relations between Beijing and Pyongyang appear frostier than ever before.
Additionally, the Korea publication references the Chinese-language Boxun News, which cites a Beijing source, according to whom Chinese President Xi Jinping attempted to send Wu Dawei, China\u2019s special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs, to Pyongyang after his summit with U. S. President Donald Trump, but North Korean leader Kim Jong-un allegedly rejected Wu\u2019s visit.
Boxun adds that it was unclear if North Korea did not conduct a sixth nuclear test last Saturday because of Beijing\u2019s warning not to do so, however it adds that according to \u00ab\u00a0analysts\u00a0\u00bb there\u2019s a high likelihood of a provocation on the 85th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean People\u2019s Army next Tuesday and the days leading up to the South Korean presidential election on May 9.
Citing its Chinese source, Boxun said that \u00ab\u00a0China believes there is the \u201chighest possibility\u201d of a nuclear test on April 25, but \u201cdoes not leave out the possibility it might take action in early May .\u00a0\u00bb
One assumes the Carl Vinson, wherever it may be in the world currently, will eventually make it to North Korea by then.
Meanwhile, South Korean officials cited by JoongAng Daily confirmed that Wu, China\u2019s top nuclear envoy, during a visit to Seoul last week said he proposed to visit Pyongyang in person to persuade the North to refrain from further provocations but he was spurned.
Lu Chao, a Chinese expert on Korean studies at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, was among multiple analysts that told the state-affiliated tabloid Global Times Tuesday that if North Korea did not refrain from conducting its sixth nuclear test, it would \u201cdefinitely trigger\u201d more intense United Nations sanctions, and that China will implement them.
Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) , said the \u201cprovocation window\u201d between South Korean elections and North Korean provocations has become narrower over time, referring to database collected over the past 60 years. That window refers to the proximity in time between a South Korean election and a provocative act by North Korea, meaning a nuclear or missile test.
Cha said such a pattern \u201csuggests a provocation as early as two weeks\u201d before the South Korean presidential elections on May 9. That two-week window overlaps with North Korea\u2019s military foundation day on April 25.
* * *
Meanwhile, amid escalating military tensions in the region, the Chinese navy tested its new guided-missile destroyer, the Xining, in its first live-fire exercise conducted in the Yellow Sea, near the Korean Peninsula, broadcast on China\u2019s state-run CCTV on Tuesday. The Xining, China\u2019s Type 052D-class missile destroyer with was put into service by the People\u2019s Liberation Army Navy in January.
The exercise, possibly warning against a North Korean military provocation, was reported to have lasted several days and comes as Beijing has called for North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions under renewed pressure from the Trump administration. U. S. Vice President Mike Pence warned Monday in Seoul the \u201cera for strategic patience is over.\u201d
Trump has been lauding Beijing for helping with the Pyongyang situation, especially over sending back North Korean vessels bringing coal to a Chinese port. Trump told Fox News Tuesday in reference to Chinese President Xi Jinping, \u201cHe\u2019s working so nicely that many coal ships have been sent back. Fuel is being sent back. They\u2019 re not dealing the same way. Nobody\u2019s ever seen it like that.\u201d As reported previously, in February, China announced it would suspend all coal imports from North Korea to the end of the year in accordance with a UN Security Council resolution.
Meanwhile, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Wednesday warned Pyongyang to exercise restraint on any actions that could heighten tension on the Korean Peninsula in response to Pyongyang\u2019s recent bellicose rhetoric.
Lu Kang, a spokesman of the ministry, said at a briefing, \u201cChina objects to any words that could heighten tensions since the current situation on the Korean Peninsula is highly complicated and sensitive.\u201d Within China, there is talk about playing a key card to pressure North Korea – cutting off oil supplies to the Kim Jong-un regime.
In an editorial last week, the state-run tabloid Global Times said that if Pyongyang engaged in further provocations, Chinese society would approve of \u201csevere restrictive measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil imports to the North.\u201d On Monday, the paper again called for China to cut off most oil supplies to North Korea if there was another nuclear test.
In an editorial Tuesday, it pointed out that China and U. S. cooperation is increasing over the North Korean problem, and that the possibility of dragging out the North Korea issue indefinitely has \u201cdecreased drastically.\u201d
\u201cNorth Korea and China are a blood alliance, interdependent like no other, \u201d said a South Korean government official Tuesday.\u00a0 \u201cBut the atmosphere in China, which has left a back door open to North Korea regardless of the international community\u2019s sanctions, is changing little by little.\u201d
North Korea depends on China for some 90 percent of its crude oil supply.
Lee Gee-dong, head of the Strategic Team on North Korea at the Seoul-based Institute for National Security Strategy, said, \u201cThough it may not be immediate, if North Korea conducts a strategic provocation such as a sixth nuclear test or launches an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) , Beijing will have to use the halting of oil exports card.\u201d However, some analysts think the threat of cutting oil supplies to the North is mere rhetoric.
\u201cIn the 1990s, when the North Korea nuclear issue first escalated, China could have blocked oil then, \u201d one former South Korean official said. \u201cThe oil supply card could be a performance by China to impress President Trump, but bears more watching.\u201d<\/p>\n