The election is a referendum on Governor Yuriko Koike, but poor showing for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe\u2019s Liberal Democratic Party will also be taken as rebuke of his administration<\/b>
\nVoters in the Japanese capital cast ballots Sunday in an election that could spell trouble for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is suffering from slumping support because of a scandal over suspected favoritism for a friend doing business.
On the surface, the Tokyo Metropolitan assembly election is a referendum on Governor Yuriko Koike\u2019s year in office, but poor showing for Abe\u2019s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will also be taken as rebuke of his 4\u00bd-year-old administration.
Past Tokyo elections have been bellwethers to national trends. A 2009 Tokyo poll in which the LDP won just 38 seats was followed by its defeat in a general election that year, although this time no lower house poll need be held until late 2018.
Koike and reformist message
Koike, a media-savvy ex-defense minister and former LDP member pushing a reformist message, hopes her Tokyo Citizens First party and allies win a majority in the 127-member assembly, to end the LDP\u2019s domination of the chamber.
Among her allies is the Komeito party, the LDP\u2019s national coalition partner.
A strong showing by Koike\u2019s party would fuel speculation that she will make a bid for the nation\u2019s top job, though probably not until after the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.
It could also widen cracks between the LDP and the Komeito while damaging prospects for the opposition Democratic Party.
\u200b Japan could be set for shake-up
Abe\u2019s rivals in his party could be encouraged by a dismal LDP performance to challenge him in a leadership race in September 2018, victory in which would set Abe on course to become Japan\u2019s longest-serving leader and bolster his hopes of revising the post-war, pacifist constitution.
Gerry Curtis, professor emeritus at Columbia University, said Japan\u2019s political landscape could be set for a shake-up if Koike\u2019s party and its allies win big.
\u201cWe may discover that Japan is not all that different from Britain, France and the U. S. in its ability to produce a big political surprise, \u201d he said, referring to recent elections in those countries.
Abe\u2019s troubles center on concern he may have intervened to help Kake Gakuen (Kake Educational Institution) , whose director, Kotaro Kake, is a friend, win approval for a veterinary school in a special economic zone.
The government has not granted such an approval in decades because of a perceived glut of veterinarians. Abe and his aides have denied doing Kake any favors.
Potentially more troublesome is the impression among many voters that Abe and his inner circle have grown arrogant.
A survey last week by the Jiji news agency forecast Koike\u2019s party and allied groups would win at least 64 seats.<\/p>\n