As the United States and North Korea exchange fiery words over the regime’s growing weapons program, China — the North’s biggest ally and trade partner — has receded into the background. Donald Trump had been publicly prodding China for months to use its influence on Pyongyang, but this week the\u2026<\/b>
\nAs the United States and North Korea exchange fiery words over the regime’s growing weapons program, China — the North’s biggest ally and trade partner — has receded into the background.
Donald Trump had been publicly prodding China for months to use its influence on Pyongyang, but this week the U. S. president pointed his verbal salvos directly at North Korea, warning of \u00ab\u00a0fire and fury\u00a0\u00bb if it endangered the United States.
That prompted a defiant Pyongyang to threaten a missile attack on Guam, a tiny U. S. territory in the Pacific that is home to major U. S. air and naval facilities.
The bellicose rhetoric overshadowed Beijing’s calls for restraint and political dialogue.
\u00ab\u00a0Beijing is not able to persuade Washington or Pyongyang to back down at this time, \u00a0\u00bb the state-run Global Times tabloid conceded in an editorial on Friday.
Here are three questions and answers on China’s conundrum:
What is the best-case scenario for China?
China has consistently sought the resumption of the \u00ab\u00a0six-party talks\u00a0\u00bb (alongside Russia, Japan, South Korea, North Korea and the U. S.) , which collapsed in 2009 but could trumpet Beijing’s role as a mediator.
\u00ab\u00a0Beijing could play the role of a chairman at these talks and boost its influence not only regarding North Korea but also South Korea and Japan, \u00a0\u00bb political analyst Willy Lam told AFP.
\u00ab\u00a0This would bolster its claim to semi-superpower status.\u00a0\u00bb
But China’s proposal for peaceful dialogue appears to have fallen on deaf ears as the United States and North Korea ramp up the rhetoric.
\u00ab\u00a0China has no real effective leverage to deescalate the situation if both Trump and North Korea’s Kim (Jong-un) are reckless, \u00a0\u00bb Xu Guoqi, a foreign relations expert at the University of Hong Kong, told AFP.
How much sway does China really hold?
Before his verbal barrages this week, Trump had been complaining that China was not doing enough to use its considerable economic leverage on North Korea.
On Monday, China’s foreign minister pledged to \u00ab\u00a0implement…100 percent\u00a0\u00bb new and wide-sweeping U. N. Security Council sanctions that could cost the authoritarian regime $1 billion in annual revenue.
But China, which accounts for 90 percent of the North’s trade, has said it would not cut off humanitarian aid to the country’s poverty-stricken population.
The U. S., Japan and South Korea would have to offer additional concessions to prompt China to consider using aid as a bargaining chip, analysts said.
\u00ab\u00a0If Trump wants China to do more in terms of sanctions, Washington has to make significant concessions — for example, in regards to the deployment of the THAAD missile defence system, trade issues or the South China Sea, \u00a0\u00bb Lam said.
\u00ab\u00a0In theory, China could cut off aid tomorrow.\u00a0\u00bb
Would China defend North Korea in a conflict?
A cornerstone of Sino-North Korean ties is a mutual defence pact signed in 1961, eight years after the end of the Korean War.
Still, analysts said it was a \u00ab\u00a0mystery\u00a0\u00bb whether either side would uphold the military treaty should conflict really break out.
Beijing has long feared that a collapse of the North Korean regime would bring a flood of refugees across its border.
An editorial in the Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid, said Friday that China’s actions should depend on who fires first.
\u00ab\u00a0China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten U. S. soil first and the US retaliates, China will stay neutral, \u00a0\u00bb the column said.
\u00ab\u00a0If the U. S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n