But there\u2019s reason to be skeptical.<\/b>
\nNorth Korea just reopened a communications channel with South Korea after nearly two years of silence, a move that could lower the chances of an accidental war between the two longtime foes.
North Korean military officials spoke twice with their southern counterparts on January 3. They first chatted at 3:30 pm local time and \u201cchecked technical issues of the communication line\u201d for about 20 minutes, according to South Korea\u2019s Ministry of Unification. North Korea then called South Korea around 6:07 pm simply to say \u201clet\u2019s call it a day today,\u201d the ministry said.
It may not seem like much, but those brief conversations over the phone line have the potential to calm the growing tensions between the US and South Korea on one side and North Korea on the other \u2014 tensions that could lead to a catastrophic war .
President Donald Trump took credit for the talks on Wednesday, tweeting, \u201cdoes anybody really believe that talks and dialogue would be going on between North and South Korea right now if I wasn\u2019t firm, strong and willing to commit our total \u2018might against the North,\u201d adding that \u201ctalks are a good thing!\u201d Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis told reporters on Wednesday that \u201cwe don\u2019t know if [the offer of talks are] a genuine olive branch or not.\u201d
Many experts believe North Korea\u2019s decision to start talking again isn\u2019t solely a gesture of goodwill. Instead, they say the North likely is using the once-defunct communications channel for more concrete reasons.
First, Kim Jong Un wants his athletes to participate in the upcoming Winter Olympics in South Korea. Second, he wants to see what South Korea might agree to, like canceling all military drills with the US. And finally, he may hope that speaking directly to South Korea will make Seoul decide America isn\u2019t a necessary participant in future peace talks. That could potentially drive a diplomatic wedge between Seoul and Washington.
\u201cThe fact that North Korea wants to talk to South Korea makes me cautiously optimistic, but I don\u2019t have high expectations,\u201d Jung Pak, a former US intelligence official who is now a Koreas expert at the Brookings Institution, told me in an interview. \u201cWe need to be careful about not blowing this out of proportion.\u201d
The communications channel is actually a phone line that lower-level military officials at the border can use to talk with each other in case of escalating tensions. A chat between the North and South can help assure there are no miscues between the two sides that could potentially spiral into an open war.
For example, if a North Korean soldier defects into the South \u2014 as happened last November \u2014 the phone line could help both sides understand what took place. After all, North Korean soldiers shot at the defector around 40 times, and one even stepped over the border. It\u2019s possible one South Korean soldier might\u2019ve felt the shots were part of an attack and therefore decided to fire back. Having the phone line would let both sides know immediately what was happening.
But Pyongyang decided to shutter its end of the line in February 2016 because South Korea closed a joint industrial complex over the North\u2019s missile tests. That business park served as a way to for the two countries to establish closer ties as North Koreans and South Koreans worked closely together. After the closure, South Korea continued to ring its northern neighbors at 9 am and 4 pm every weekday \u2014 but North Korean officials didn\u2019t answer.
The line\u2019s reopening comes after Kim said during a New Year\u2019s Day speech that he wanted North Korean athletes to participate in the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in, a liberal who has long advocated for an ongoing dialogue with North Korea, quickly reacted to Kim\u2019s speech by saying it was \u201ca response to our proposal to turn the Pyeongchang Olympic Games into an epoch-making opportunity to improve inter-Korean relations and establish peace.\u201d
Just a day later, South Korean Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon said both countries should meet at the border village of Panmunjom on January 9 to discuss the Olympics and their relationship. North Korea has yet to accept the offer.
So there is a chance that these calls could improve ties between the North and South, potentially lower the chance of a still-unlikely US-North Korea war, and pave the way for North Korean athletes to attend the Olympics. And while that\u2019s already ambitious, it\u2019s probably not all Kim is after.
Experts noted that North Korea likely isn\u2019t calling just to avoid war or to ensure North Korean athletes can participate in the Olympic Games.
\u201cWe need to be very cautious about our expectations given North Korea\u2019s long history of effectively using these talks to drive a wedge between South Korea and its partners, and to push for concessions Seoul couldn\u2019t possibly accept,\u201d Mintaro Oba, a former Obama State Department official who worked on North Korean affairs, said in an interview.
That\u2019s potentially Kim\u2019s plan now. \u201cKim\u2019s ruse is simple: He will demand some sort of economic assistance, sanctions relief, or a straight bribe\u201d in exchange for not disrupting the Olympics, Harry Kazianis, an Asia security expert at the Center for the National Interest, told me.
On top of that, Kim could leverage the Olympics to convince the US and South Korea to stop their joint military drills. There is definitely an opportunity for Kim to exploit. On December 19,2017, Moon requested that the US and South Korea halt all military exercises until after the Olympics. And just last Thursday, Trump accepted that offer. It\u2019s unclear if North Korea\u2019s recent calls had anything to do with Trump\u2019s decision, but experts note that Kim might decide that future calls could lead to other drill cancellations.
And if that happens, it could potentially help accomplish one of North Korea\u2019s top goals: driving a diplomatic wedge between South Korea and America. There is a small chance for Kim to achieve that too.
\u201cPresident Moon\u2019s administration has talked of \u2018balanced diplomacy\u2019 to hedge against being overly dependent on the United States,\u201d retired Marine Lt. Gen. Chip Gregson, the Pentagon\u2019s top Asia official from 2009 to 2011, told me in an interview. In other words, Moon might be receptive to finding a path to peace solely by talking to North Korea and keeping the US at arm\u2019s length.
But Pak doesn\u2019t think that move is likely to work. \u201cWhether Kim\u2019s move drives a wedge between the US and South Korea is up to the US and South Korea \u2014 not North Korea,\u201d she said.
So there is some reason for optimism \u2014 after all, the opening of the communications channel could lower the chance of war \u2014 but all of this could also just be a North Korean ploy. The question of how serious North Korea\u2019s overture is remains open \u2014 just like the phone line.<\/p>\n

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