Abe\u2019s future has come under intense speculation amid a drip-feed of scandals that have prompted a series of public apologies and driven his poll numbers to near record lows.<\/b>
\nWhen Shinzo Abe resigned as Japanese prime minister 11 years ago it came out of nowhere, two days after a major policy speech. Now, Tokyo is wondering if he\u2019ll shock the government again.
Abe\u2019s future has come under intense speculation amid a drip-feed of scandals that have prompted a series of public apologies and driven his poll numbers to near record lows. Critics within his Liberal Democratic Party are going public ahead of a scheduled vote on the party leadership in September, while his former mentor, ex-premier Junichiro Koizumi, predicted in an interview with the Shukan Asahi magazine that Abe would step down in June.
The prime minister\u2019s travails just six months after leading the LDP to a landslide win are casting doubt on a policy agenda that has over the past five years bolstered Japan\u2019s military and attracted investors with a weaker yen. While LDP would be expected to fend off any election challenge by an opposition that has struggled to unite, Abe\u2019s departure could prompt policy confusion as potential contenders in his own party horse-trade for support.
\u201cHe\u2019s in the danger zone,\u201d said Gerald Curtis, an emeritus professor at Columbia University and author of several books on Japanese politics. \u201cNo one in the LDP wants to go down with the Abe ship, but the trouble is they don\u2019t know who they want to replace him as captain.\u201d
A weakened Abe heads to Donald Trump\u2019s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Tuesday to discuss the U. S. president\u2019s surprise decisions to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and levy tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminum exports. While the visit could provide welcome distraction from the scandals, it may be harder than before to persuade the public that Abe\u2019s charm offensive with Trump is paying off.
The yen gained against the dollar Monday, after some 50,000 anti-Abe protesters rallied on the weekend outside parliament and new polls showed Abe\u2019s support levels approaching lows that have led past prime ministers to resign. Abe\u2019s popularity fell to a record low of 26.7 percent in a Nippon TV survey published Sunday.
The decline follows revelations that Finance Ministry officials removed the names of Abe and his wife, Akie Abe, from documents related to a discounted land sale. Last week, Abe appeared twice in parliament to answer for different controversies: denying involvement in a government land grant involving a close friend and apologizing for the military\u2019s apparent cover-up of its reports on deployments in Iraq.
While Abe told parliament he would stay in his job and work to restore public trust in the government, the past few weeks have presented the prime minister\u2019s biggest political challenge since he stepped down amid a similar public relations maelstrom in September 2007, citing a chronic digestive ailment. Since leading the LDP back to power in 2012 he has shown remarkable resilience, channeling public concerns over North Korea\u2019s missile launches last year to rally back from weakening poll numbers. Potential Rivals
Building up Japan\u2019s Self-Defense Forces has been been a key plank of Abe\u2019s agenda, including his long-held ambition to amend the pacifist constitution. Abe has also implemented a monetary-easing effort that bolstered exporters and lifted stock prices — a program his LDP rivals have suggested needs to end.
But economists say his regulatory reforms have fallen short of expectations. He has faced criticism from Trump, and seemingly been left out of the loop lately on North Korea. Abe\u2019s repeated meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin have failed to bring him any closer to his goal of regaining disputed islands.
A poll published by the Asahi newspaper Monday found that former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba was the most popular candidate for LDP leader, with 27 percent of respondents picking him, compared with 22 percent for Abe.
Still, \u201cIshiba would not be the same as Abe or Koizumi, who are strong leaders,\u201d said Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo. \u201cIf he became prime minister, his policies would not necessarily be his ideas, but more consensus-based among the factions.\u201d
Internal Affairs Minister Seiko Noda and former Finance Minister Fumio Kishida each got six percent in the Asahi poll.
If Abe were to step down, he would remain leader until a party election could be arranged, and it could also trigger a move toward a general election.
The LDP faces little real external opposition — the Democratic Party, which took power two years after Abe stepped down in 2007, has splintered into multiple groups that have failed to gain significant public recognition. Even so, Abe\u2019s ruling coalition is unlikely to want to risk seats by having another general election soon.
Curtis from Columbia University said Abe would use his U. S. trip and his own diplomacy with North Korea to try and divert attention from problems at home.
\u201cWe know what his strategy is,\u201d Curtis said. \u201cHe focuses on the North Korea issue, plays for time and hopes the public will get tired of the scandals.\u201d<\/p>\n