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COVID-19 Deaths Are Now Rising in the U. S., but Case Fatality Rate Continues To Fall

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We are starting to see the fatal consequences of the recent infection surge.
Daily COVID-19 deaths in the United States, which have fallen dramatically since the spring and continued to drop even as newly identified cases surged, are now rising. According to the Worldometers tally, COVID-19 deaths averaged 948 during the last three days, compared to 302 during the previous three days. That’s a pretty alarming increase in a short time, and it will have a significant impact on the total death toll if it proves to be more than a temporary spike.
The seven-day average of daily deaths, which is a better indicator of trends, has increased less dramatically. According to data scientist Youyang Gu’s calculations, that number fell from 1,122 on May 25 to a low of 510 on July 4 and has since risen to 641, which is still more than 70 percent lower than the peak average of 2,238 on April 18. «Health experts cautioned that it was too early to predict a continuing trend from only a few days of data,» notesThe New York Times.
Gu, who has a good track record of predicting COVID-19 fatalities, is now projecting that daily deaths will rise to 774 in late August, then gradually fall to fewer than 500 by the end of October. He has increased his estimate of total deaths by October 1 from about 186,000—his projection at the beginning of this week—to about 192,000, rising above 200,000 by mid-October.
Because newly identified infections have more than tripled since Memorial Day, from fewer than 20,000 to more than 60,000 yesterday and the day before, daily deaths were bound to rise eventually.

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