For the President, the first shot at an October surprise has landed in his own foot.
In the week where another TV debate created noise but very little movement in voter intentions, Trump’s campaign relies ever more heavily on the notion of an ‘October surprise’—the bombshell revelation that skews a US election campaign in the final weeks. The trouble is that even that prospect has been severely weakened by four years of constant surprises from the President himself. After all this, what could happen at this stage, what would make this month different, that would create anything more than a collective, resigned shrug? Still, it doesn’t stop people from trying, and not least the Iranians and Russians, according to John Ratcliffe, the director of US national intelligence, who claimed this week that both countries were actively trying to disrupt the vote. So in that context, it’s difficult to separate out what is disruption, mischief or corruption when the New York Post unearthed emails that laid open Hunter Biden, Joe’s son, to accusations of murky dealings in the Ukraine. The (denied) allegations have caused an outbreak of finger pointing across both sides of the campaign, and while Ratcliffe says they are not part of an organized disinformation campaign, they at least had the potential to add a layer of unpredictability to an election which looked to be heading Biden’s way. So far, though, the story doesn’t seem to have impacted voter intention in the way that Trump had hoped, with voters proving jaded by long-heard stories—many believed, few proven—about foreign influence, dubious amounts of cash, and prostitutes with full bladders.
