Pyongyang will never agree to a unilateral disarmament, regardless of how diplomatically the U.S. frames the demand.
For decades, U.S. policy makers have asked, “How do we get North Korea to give up nuclear weapons?” and have come up empty-handed. As the Biden administration prepares to take office, perhaps it’s time to ask a different question: “How do we get to peace with North Korea?” Here’s the dilemma facing Washington. On the one hand, the U.S. doesn’t want to allow North Korea to have nuclear weapons because that may encourage other countries to do the same. (Washington is already busy trying to halt Iran’s nuclear ambition, while a growing number of conservative voices in Japan and South Korea are also calling for acquiring their own nukes.) The U.S. has tried to get North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons through pressure and sanctions, but that approach has backfired, hardening Pyongyang’s resolve to hone its nuclear and missile technology. North Korea says the only way it will give up its nuclear weapons is if the U.S. “abandons its hostile policy,” — in other words, takes reciprocal steps toward arms reduction — but so far, Washington has made no moves nor indicated any intention of moving toward that goal. In fact, the Trump administration continued to conduct joint war drills with South Korea and tightened enforcement of sanctions against North Korea despite its commitment in Singapore to make peace with Pyongyang. Enter Joe Biden. How will his team resolve this dilemma? Repeating the same failed approach and expecting a different result would be — well, you know how the saying goes. Biden’s advisers are in consensus that the Trump administration’s “all or nothing” approach — demanding upfront that North Korea give up all its weapons — has failed. Instead, they recommend an “arms control approach”: first freezing North Korea’s plutonium and uranium nuclear operations and then taking incremental steps toward the ultimate goal of complete denuclearization. This is the preferred approach of secretary of state nominee Anthony Blinken, who advocates an interim deal to cap North Korea’s nuclear weapons to buy time to work out a long-term agreement. He says we should get allies and China on board to pressure North Korea: “squeeze North Korea to get it to the negotiating table.” “We need to cut off its various avenues and access to resources,” he says, and advocates telling countries with North Korean guest workers to send them home. If China won’t cooperate, Blinken suggests that the U.S. threaten it with more forward-deployed missile defense and military exercises. Blinken’s proposal is barely different from the failed approach of the past. It’s still a policy of pressure and isolation to get to the ultimate goal of unilaterally disarming North Korea — the only difference being that the Biden administration is willing to take more time getting there. In this case, North Korea will likely continue to press forward on its nuclear weapons and missile capability.
