Humanity is on course to transgress multiple global «tipping points» that could lead to irreversible instability or the complete collapse of ecological and institutional systems, a United Nations report has warned.
Humanity is on course to transgress multiple global «tipping points» that could lead to irreversible instability or the complete collapse of ecological and institutional systems, a United Nations report has warned.
The third annual Interconnected Disaster Risks report from the U.N. University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security in Bonn, Germany, found that drastic changes will occur if urgent actions are not taken around six moments when sociological systems are no longer able to buffer risks.
The tipping points include several issues that California is confronting head-on—groundwater depletion, rising insurance costs, extreme heat and species extinction. The other threats are melting glaciers and space debris. According to U.N. officials, «when one system tips, other systems may also be pushed over the edge.»
«The very practical consequence will be that much more people will live under very precarious conditions—so loss of life, loss of livelihood and loss of opportunities,» said Zita Sebesvari, deputy director at the U.N. University Institute and one of the lead authors of the report. «It does have cascading impacts.»
The tipping points are growing increasingly interconnected through global supply chains, trade and communications networks, the report says. Those links offer greater opportunity for cooperation, «but also expose us to greater risks and unpleasant surprises» from ripple effects when one element begins to crumble.
«We are moving perilously close to the brink of multiple risk tipping points,» the report says. The good news is that it is not too late to make changes to avoid or at least delay the worst possible outcomes.
According to the analysis, groundwater depletion is one problem with major potential consequences. Roughly 2 billion people worldwide rely on groundwater as a primary source, but 21 of the world’s 37 largest aquifers are already being depleted faster than they can be replenished.
The tipping point for groundwater occurs when existing wells are not sufficient to reach the water table and access to groundwater becomes prohibitively expensive or problematic, the report says.
By that criterion, California is already on the cliff’s edge, as industrial agriculture and other uses are sapping supplies so quickly that more than 5,700 wells are currently dry and thousands more are at risk, according to state data. Groundwater depletion is also contributing to land subsidence, with some areas sinking as quickly as 1 foot per year.
Surpassing the tipping point could have dire consequences not just for local communities but for global food production, the report says. In California, officials are attempting to rectify this through the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act—a landmark piece of legislation that seeks to limit groundwater use, but with a timeline for implementation that could take decades.
«The long-term vision is to balance out the infiltration and recharging of groundwater with the taking out of groundwater,» Sebesvari said.
