Are we really on the verge of war? And what would it look like?
Key takeaways:
Since the early fall, the US has been building up its military forces in the Caribbean and launching airstrikes on alleged drug boats, fueling speculation that it is planning a major military operation against the government of Venezuela.
And if the past few days are any indication, the situation may be reaching a tipping point.
President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the “airspace above and surrounding Venezuela” should be considered closed, though he did not explain what this meant and the US does not appear to have taken any actual steps to enforce a no-fly zone over the country. Trump said last week that the US will “very soon” begin taking action against suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers on land. Given that the US considers Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to be the head of a “narcoterrorist cartel,” this could very well include action against the Venezuelan government and military.
Trump recently spoke by phone with Maduro and, according to the Miami Herald, told him he could save himself and his family by giving up power and leaving the country. The also reported that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth authorized a second strike to kill survivors of an initial attack on a suspected drug boat on September 2, an action legal experts say could be considered murder under the laws of armed conflict.
Trump has not yet committed to military action, but has said he believes Maduro’s “days are numbered.” It’s been a strange sort of march to war, in which some of the justifications simply don’t make much sense and the ultimate goal of the operation isn’t always clear. But how did we get here? And where might this all be headed?What has the US military been up to in the Caribbean?
The US carried out its first strike against an alleged drug boat on September 2 in the Caribbean between Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago. Since then, 20 more boats have been destroyed in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, killing more than 80 people, in what Hegseth has dubbed Operation Southern Spear.
At the same time, the US has been carrying out the largest military build-up in the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis, including thousands of troops, advanced drones, fighter jets, guided missile destroyers and cruisers, and — most dramatically — the aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford and its strike group. Special Operations helicopters have been flying missions less than a hundred miles from the Venezuelan coast. Trump has also authorized covert action by the CIA within Venezuela.
Though Trump has not sought congressional authorization for military action (and is unlikely to do so), the White House appeared to be making a case for action by designating Venezuela’s “Cartel de los Soles” as a terrorist organization and identifying Maduro as its leader. Cartel de los Soles is not, strictly speaking, a cartel. It’s a term used by Venezuelans for senior political and military leaders in Venezuela who are involved in a range of criminal activities, including drug trafficking. In other words, by the Trump administration’s logic, the Venezuelan state is itself a terrorist organization.Is the US about to go to war with Venezuela?
At the very least, the administration wants it to look that way. The US currently has way more firepower in the Caribbean than it needs if the plan is to simply continue blowing up boats, and an aircraft carrier is not particularly suited to a counternarcotics mission — it is well-suited for an air campaign targeting Venezuela, however.
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) point out that the Ford is a “use it or lose it” asset — only about a third of America’s 11 aircraft carriers are at sea at any given time and demand for them is high in hot zones like the Middle East and Indo-Pacific.
