Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.<\/b>
\n3 a.m. Sunday, July 1, Japan time: U. S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.
Tropical Storm Prapiroon is gradually picking up speed, headed northwest. Its forecast track continues taking it just west of Okinawa, leaving the burning question: Will the island see 58-mph destructive winds or will it not?
At 9 p.m., Prapiroon was 315 miles south of Kadena Air Base, trudging north at 8 mph and holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. If it remains on its present course, Prapiroon will pass 77 miles west of Kadena at 10 p.m. Sunday, sporting 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at storm\u2019s center.
But almost like a magnet, Prapiroon\u2019s more nasty quadrants, northeast and southeast, will pass closer to Kadena than the west ones. Almost invariably, the eastern quadrants are meaner, pulling humidity, heat and stronger storm rings than the western ones.
As Prapiroon approaches Okinawa, its radius of 58-mph winds are forecast to extend 81 miles away from center and the 40-mph radius 184 miles from center in the northeast quadrant. The 58-mph radius, of course, features the more destructive winds, and Kadena sits right at the edge of that 58-mph wind loop, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
In short, Kadena can very easily expect destructive winds Sunday afternoon and evening that might warrant upgrading to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E. Lockdown mode. Everyone stay indoors until the danger has passed.
Then again, perhaps not. All of that could change. Forecast models agree on a track taking Prapiroon west of Okinawa, but are scattered all over the lot from late Monday on.
The good news is that Prapiroon might not intensify into a typhoon until well after it passes Okinawa.
7 p.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan\/Korea time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U. S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. It does appear as if Okinawa will experience sustained destructive 58-mph winds Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.
— Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 9 a.m. Sunday.
— Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 3 p.m. Sunday.
— Peak 58-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts for Kadena, 69-mph gusts elsewhere: 5 p.m. Sunday.
— Winds subsiding below 58-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Monday.
— Winds subsiding below 40-mph sustained: 9 a.m. Monday. 6 p.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan\/Korea time: The good news, if there is such a thing regarding Pacific tropical cyclones, is Tropical Storm Prapiroon might wait to become a Category 1-equivalent typhoon than previously forecast.
But that doesn’t mean Okinawa is out of the woods. Will the island get destructive 58-mph sustained winds? Or won’t it?
That appears to be the $64,000 question. The southwest edges of Okinawa appear to be barely inside Prapiroon’s 50-knot forecast wind loop, according to the latest from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
And Prapiroon is moving so slowly … ever so slowly … that forecast passage of Okinawa might not come until Sunday evening now. Stated another way, the only thing certain is… uncertainty.
Same goes for Korea. It’s fairly certain that Prapiroon will make landfall over the Peninsula’s southern edges; the only question being, where will it go from there?
Earlier, Osan and Kunsan Air Bases appeared to be in the crosshairs; now, the forecast track seems to take Prapiroon much closer to Korea’s southeastern Area IV bases, Camps Walker, George and Henry and K-2 Air Bsae in Daegu, Chinhae Naval Base and the tinier installations in Busan, along Korea’s southeastern coast.
Here’s what we do know at this point, knowing it all can change as we move along:
At 5:30 p.m., Prapiroon was 374 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling northwest at 5 mph, holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2.
If it remains on its present course, Prapiroon is forecast to pass 71 miles west-southwst of Kadena at 10 p.m. Sunday, packing 63- to 69-mph sustained winds and 81- to 86-mph gusts at storm’s center.
Prapiroon is due to intensify into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon about 18 hours after passing Kadena, peaking at 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts. Please check previous posts for the wind-forecast timeline; keep in mind, that could change also.
It should maintain that intensity as it slams into Korea’s southern coast about mid-morning Tuesday.
JTWC projects Prapiroon to rapidly decay as it moves over the southern mountains, then pass 85 miles east-southeast of Kunsan Air Base at 10 a.m. Monday, perhaps sparing it the storm’s full fury.
But it should come within 20 miles of Daegu, 40 miles northeast of Chinhae and 69 miles northwest of Busan two hours later. Area IV bases remain in TCCOR 4.
But the forecast track has wobbled quite a bit the past couple of days. Forecast models remain spread somewhat. PST will keep an eye on it. 3:40 p.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan time: With elevated tropical cyclone conditions of readiness possible in the coming hours and days, here’s a guide to remind those who’ve been around awhile and tailor made for newcomers. What those TCCORs mean and what to do when they’re issued. 2:30 p.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan time: Here is the latest wind-forecast timeline for U. S. bases on Okinawa, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
— Onset of 40-mph sustained winds: 3 a.m. Sunday
— Onset of 58-mph sustained winds: 1 p.m. Sunday
— Peak 58-mph sustained winds, 69-mph gusts: 5 p.m. Sunday.
— Winds diminishing below 58-mph sustained: 8 p.m. Sunday
— Winds diminishing below 40-mph sustained: 3 a.m. Monday.
U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2. Expect an upgrade early Sunday morning. Sustained 40-mph winds or greater meet the critiera for TCCOR 1-C to be declared; 58-mph sustained winds or greater, TCCOR 1-E. Noon Saturday, June 30, Japan time: U. S. bases on Okinawa have entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2.
Destructive sustained winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours. Time for cleaning up around the office and yard and getting that last-minute shopping done.
Be prepared to stay indoors when TCCOR 1-C and 1-E are issued Sunday.
8:15 a.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan time: Here\u2019s the latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base\u2019s 18th Wing Weather Flight. It’s likely U. S. bases will enter Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) by Sunday afternoon. Here’s what to expect:
Kadena\u2019s weather flight forecast calls for between 2 to 4 inches of rain through Monday, perhaps beyond.
7 a.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan time: Tropical Storm Prapiroon continues moving very slowly northwest. Its forecast track has veered slightly closer to Okinawa \u2013 now projected to be 67 miles west at 4 p.m. Sunday, a bit later than previously reported, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Prapiroon should reach Category 1-equivalent strength as it reaches Okinawa, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center as it roars past, and maintain severe tropical storm strength as it picks up forward speed, north over Jeju Island, then making landfall over the southwest coast of Korea late Monday evening.
At 3 a.m., Prapiroon was 451 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling north-northwest at 5 mph, holding steady at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Prapiroon to speed up as Saturday progresses, rumbling past Okinawa Sunday afternoon and peaking at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts early Monday morning after it exits Okinawa.
U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect that to be upgraded by mid-day or afternoon Saturday to TCCOR 2, depending on Prapiroon\u2019s track and movement, and possibly TCCOR 1 early Sunday morning. U. S. bases in Korea\u2019s Area IV remain in TCCOR 4; expect upgrade to TCCOR 3, along with TCCORs being set for bases along the west coast.
Rain and gusty winds remain forecast for the entire weekend into Monday on Okinawa. Kadena\u2019s 18th Wing Weather Flight calls for rain, showers and scattered thunderstorms, with easterly winds up to 40 mph and gusts up to 51 Sunday morning, then southeasterly winds up to 39 mph with gusts between 66 and 79 mph Sunday after, gradually decreasing Monday.
Prapiroon is forecast to move through Korea later than previously forecast, 30 miles east of Kunsan Air Base and Osan Air Base, 80 miles west of Daegu, 28 miles east of Camp Humphreys and 40 miles east of Yongsan Garrison between midnight Monday and 7 a.m. Tuesday.
Much of this could change, depending on Prapiroon\u2019s forward speed and track. Forecast models are in general agreement on Prapiroon moving northwest, but how quickly is still open to question.
12:30 a.m. Saturday, June 30, Japan\/Korea time: Again, Tropical Storm Prapiroon’s forecast track has edged further west of Okinawa, which could avoid the storm’s inner nastiness, if the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest track holds.
But the weekend should continue to be a gusty, rainy, all-around nasty one, according to local military and Japanese forecasts. And Korea’s southwest coach remains right in Prapiroon’s crosshairs for a Monday afternoon arrival. Some holiday weekend!
At midnight, Prapiroon was 463 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base and has started to turn northwest, moving at 6 mph and has intensified to 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts.
If Prapiroon remains on its current course, it’s due to pass 84 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 1 p.m. Sunday, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts at center. Equal to a Category 1 hurricane. But far enough from Kadena that it might not feel its full fury.
U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; that could change, either accelerating to TCCOR 2 or reverting to TCCOR Storm Watch, depending on Prapiroon’s future movements.
Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight forecast still calls for 30-mph sustained winds with gusts up to 70 mph along with rain, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the weekend. Japanese forecasts call for similar conditions lasting into Tuesday.
As Prapiroon moves northwest of Okinawa, it’s forecast to peak at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts and start to move rapidly toward Korea’s southwest coast. Landfall is expected around 9 p.m. Monday as a severe tropical storm, 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts at center as it slams ashore.
Prapiroon is forecast to pass 15 miles east of Kunsan Air Base, 17 miles east of Osan Air Base and 26 miles east of Yongsan Garrison in Seoul between 11 p.m. Monday and 4 a.m. Tuesday, then rapidly cruise northeast into the Sea of Japan, or East Sea, by Tuesday afternoon.
U. S. bases in Korea’s southern Area IV remain in TCCOR 4. Expect an upgrade by Saturday evening to TCCOR 3 and Kunsan, Osan, Yongsan and Camp Humphreys to join them.
Prapiroon is also inside the northeastern edges of the Philippines area of responsibility, and is being called Florita by the national weather authority PAGASA, but it’s forecast to remain a good 450 miles offshore and not be a threat to land. No tropical storm warning signal has been issued, nor is one expected to be.
6 p.m. Friday, June 29, Japan\/Korea time: Slightly better news for U. S. bases on Okinawa: Tropical Storm Prapiroon’s forecast track has edged still further west of Okinawa, which could give the island something more of a break from the storm’s fiercest fury.
The bad news for Korea: U. S. bases on the west coach of the Peninsula could take a pounding Monday afternoon and evening after Prapiroon makes its forecast landfall about 3 p.m. Monday over Mokpo. And it might still be a Category 1-equivalent typhoon when it does.
At 3 p.m., Prapiroon was 490 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, crawling due west at 4 mph and had intensified to 46-mph sustained winds and 58-mph gusts at center.
If it remains on its present course, Prapiroon should pass 70 miles west of Kadena at noon Sunday, just before peaking at 86-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts at center.
Prapiroon is next forecast to slam ashore over southwest Korea, still packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts as it makes landfall. It’s due to pass 7 miles west of Kunsan, 14 miles east of Yongsan, 6 miles west of Humphreys and make a direct hit on Osan between 9 p.m. Monday and 2 a.m. Tuesday.
U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, while U. S. bases in Korea’s Area IV remain in TCCOR 4. Expect Osan and Kunsan Air Bases, Yongsan Garrison and Camp Humphreys along Korea’s west coast to follow suit, and soon.
5 p.m. Friday, June 29, Korea time: U. S. Forces Korea bases in southeastern Area IV have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 from 5 p.m. through Monday. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 72 hours.
Area IV includes Chinhae Naval Base and other installations in southeastern coastal Busan, Korea’s second-largest city, and Camps Walker, George and Henry and K-2 Air Base in southeastern Daegu, the nation’s third-largest city.
According to 19th Expeditionary Sustainment Command’s official Facebook page, 2 to 3 inches of rain is forecast along with winds reaching 50 knots (58 mph) or greater within the next three days.
12:30 p.m. Friday, June 29, Japan time: Prapiroon has been upgraded to a tropical storm by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It\u2019s now forecast to peak at 81-mph sustained winds and 98-mph gusts at center just before passing Okinawa, 59 miles west of Kadena Air Base, at noon Sunday, a bit further west than previously forecast. U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.
Latest wind-forecast timeline for Okinawa from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
Prapiroon also remains on track to hit Korea\u2019s southwest coast as a severe tropical storm, packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts as it slams ashore near Mokpo and passes 98 miles northwest of Chinhae Naval Base and 27 miles southeast of Kunsan Air Base between 6 and 7 p.m. Monday.
10 a.m. Friday, June 29, Japan time: U. S. bases on Okinawa have been placed in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Condition 3. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours. Expect upgrade to TCCOR 2 within 24 hours, perhaps sooner. A wind forecast timeline will be provided once available.
Okinawa might not reach TCCOR 1-E, since peak forecast winds are not expected to reach emergency levels.
Here is the wind-forecast timeline, courtesy of Kadena Air Base\u2019s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
The above information could change, since Tropical Depression 09W is very young and can intensify quickly, becoming even stronger than currently forecasted. It would be wise to prepare for the worst and have a safety plan in place.
6:30 a.m. Friday, June 29, Japan time: Time to start preparing, folks. Sunday might find Okinawa with rainy, gusty visitor in the form of a Category 1-equivalent typhoon, if current forecasts, models and tracks remain true to current form.
U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; expect that to be upgraded some time Friday morning to TCCOR 3.
At 3 a.m., Tropical Depression 09W was 508 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, creeping southwest at 9 mph with 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts. The bad news is, 09W remains in an area of very warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Both help nourish a developing storm in the way a mom nurses a newborn.
If 09W remains on its current forecast track, it\u2019s due to pass 36 miles west of Kadena at 10 a.m. Sunday, packing 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts \u2013 well within TCCOR 1-E (emergency) parameters. We\u2019ll post a forecast wind timeline when one becomes available.
Current local forecast http:\/\/www.kadena.af.mil\/Agencies\/Local-Weather\/ calls for winds to start picking up Friday evening into Saturday, easterly sustained 20-mph winds with gusts up to 32 mph. Rain and scattered thunderstorms, a 60-percent chance, come next, starting Saturday evening, with winds increasing to 30-mph sustained and gusts up to 70 mph throughout the day Sunday.
Korea faces similar danger according to JTWC\u2019s current outlook. 09W is forecast to maintain 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts even after moving out of the subtropics, over Jeju Island toward Korea\u2019s southwest coast, then knifing its way between U. S. bases in Korea\u2019s west and southeast reaches between 2 and 7 p.m. Monday.
Time to make that trip to the commissary and exchange to get those non-perishable foods and bottled water, a portable radio, flashlight and spare batteries, diapers and wipes for the young\u2019uns and nourishment for your furry friends. Gas up and visit the ATM sometime Saturday to ensure you have enough gasoline in the car and cash on hand in case we lose power for an extended period. Get your safe on!
Midnight Thursday, June 28, Japan time: The ninth numbered storm of the northwest Pacific\u2019s tropical cyclone season has spawned nearly 500 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, and Joint Typhoon Warning Center\u2019s initial warning shows Tropical Depression 09W tracking toward a near-direct hit on Kadena early Sunday morning, with a trip to Korea\u2019s southern coast to follow.
And that\u2019s not all, folks; 09W is forecast to peak as a tropical storm at mid-evening Saturday, with 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts as it passes 10 miles west of Kadena at 1 a.m. Sunday. That, sad to say, meets the criteria for Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency), but it\u2019s too early to say definitively. It is quite early in the life of a new storm.
JTWC projects 09W to maintain 58-mph sustained winds and 75-mph gusts as it tracks toward Korea\u2019s southern coast, making landfall about mid-morning Monday. It\u2019s due to pass about 30 miles west of Chinhae Naval Base, 6 miles east of Daegu and 55 miles northwest of Busan between 1 and 4 p.m. Monday, making quite a fuss as it buzz-saws its way through Korea\u2019s mountainous terrain.
A wind-forecast timeline and possible upgraded TCCOR times will be posted when available. For the moment, U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal TCCOR 4; expect that to be upgraded sometime Friday morning.
5:45 p.m. Thursday, June 28, Japan time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on 90W Invest, the disturbance southeast of Okinawa that may be headed to the island and provide it a wet, windy pre-holiday weekend.
At 5:30 p.m., 90W was 500 miles southeast of Okinawa, is moving north-northwest at 9 mph and had moved northwest by some 75 miles in the past six hours. JTWC reports and model guidance agrees that 90W should become a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. Models show 90W tracking just west of Okinawa by Sunday.
Local forecasts concur, with both Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight and Japanese weather outlets calling for rain and gusty winds, up to 57 mph, over the weekend, starting late Saturday and lasting through Sunday.
11:45 a.m. Thursday, June 28, Japan time: A tropical disturbance is forming southeast of Okinawa and could make for a messy pre-July 4th weekend, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
At 8:30 a.m., the disturbance \u2014 designated 90W Invest \u2014 was 575 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, JTWC reported.
Forecast models show a possible development into a tropical cyclone, with the storm headed in Okinawa\u2019s general direction by the weekend.
The long-range forecast, according to Kadena officials, calls for winds and rain picking up Saturday. Throughout the weekend, expect southeasterly winds up to 30 mph and gusts up to 57 mph, with a 50-to-60-percent chance of rain, showers and scattered thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.
U. S. bases on Okinawa remain in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4. Stay tuned for future updates.<\/p>\n

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Sentiment rank: -1.3<\/div>\n

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