As Crown Prince Mohammed faces accusations in the killing of a dissident, Israel, the U. A. E. and other allies fear that damage to him could upend their own plans.<\/b>
\nBEIRUT, Lebanon \u2014 The ascendance of Crown Prince n Saudi Arabia was a boon for Israel.
He sought to push back against Iran, even comparing its supreme leader to Hitler. He cared little for the Palestinian cause, and was seen as someone able to impose the Trump peace plan on the Palestinians. And although Saudi Arabia still had no formal diplomatic relations with Israel, the young prince spoke openly of the countries\u2019 common interests.
Now, as Saudi Arabia struggles to rebut accusations that Crown Prince Mohammed was complicit in the grisly killing of a Saudi dissident, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the prince\u2019s other allies across the region are starting to worry that damage to him could upend their own plans and priorities.
For Israel, accusations that the crown prince ordered the killing of Jamal Khashoggi have already had an effect, analysts said, effectively freezing the push to build an international coalition against Iran\u2019s regional influence, the top priority for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
\u201cYou need Saudi Arabia to be at the center of this coalition,\u201d said Daniel B. Shapiro, a former United States ambassador to Israel. \u201cRight now, it\u2019s unlikely you would find any member of Congress or western European leader willing to sit with the crown prince for consultation.\u201d
On Monday, the Turkish drip of well-aimed leaks about the Khashoggi case escalated with the revelation that after he was killed in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, the Saudis sent out a body double dressed in Mr. Khashoggi\u2019s clothes as a decoy. The news raised new doubts about the Saudi explanation that Mr. Khashoggi was killed accidentally in a fistfight, suggesting instead a premeditated plan to eliminate him.
Saudi Arabia\u2019s shifting responses to the accusations have hindered its efforts to contain the story. And as each new Turkish revelation has undercut the latest Saudi explanation, the cumulative effect has been a severe blow to the reputation of the kingdom and of Prince Mohammed, known by his initials as M. B. S.
Lasting damage to Saudi Arabia\u2019s standing could ripple across the region, affecting conflicts from Libya to Yemen while making it harder for the Trump administration to press for a peace deal in the Holy Land and build a multilateral alliance against Iran, two of its key goals for the Middle East.
\u201cWhat we are seeing in the region are expressions of loyalty to Saudi Arabia, but they mask real concerns among Saudi Arabia\u2019s close allies about the viability of the current regime and about how its behavior is going to affect the region,\u201d said Lina Khatib, the head of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
No Arab country has linked its regional ambitions so closely to those of Saudi Arabia\u2019s as the United Arab Emirates. Its leaders hoped that by aligning their plans with their larger and wealthier neighbor, they could leverage the kingdom\u2019s heft for their own benefit.
The U. A. E. is fighting alongside Saudi Arabia in Yemen against a rebel movement aligned with Iran, and looking for other places to push back against Iran as well. The two countries are also united in trying to quash the political Islam of the Muslim Brotherhood and have intervened in Egypt and Libya to try to defeat it.
While damage to Saudi Arabia\u2019s reputation makes it a less attractive partner, the U. A. E. has too much riding on the relationship to abandon it.
\u201cFor the U. A. E., the partnership with Saudi Arabia is of a strategic nature, and the investment is specifically in M. B. S., whose domestic and regional visions align with theirs more than any other Saudi royal,\u201d said Emile Hokayem, a Middle East analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies. \u201cSo it is not an investment they would ever write off as a sunk cost, but at the same time the political and reputational downsides of that relationship are becoming clearer, and managing this is going to be an issue from now on.\u201d
On the other hand, the public sullying of Prince Mohammed\u2019s name has been a boon for the kingdom\u2019s foes, both those who support political Islam and those aligned with Iran.
Saudi Arabia, the U. A. E. and other countries imposed a blockade on Qatar, the kingdom\u2019s tiny neighbor, accusing it of supporting terrorism and interfering in other countries\u2019 affairs. Qatar has struck back since the disappearance of Mr. Khashoggi, giving free rein to its media, such as the satellite channel Al Jazeera, to broadcast the most lurid details of the case across the Arab world.
Turkey, too, has benefited, and the country\u2019s Islamist President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has used the issue to help erode the reputation of Prince Mohammed, a rival who also sees himself as a leader for the wider Muslim world.
By allowing his security services to trickle out details of the Khashoggi case, Mr. Erdogan has kept the story alive for weeks, increasing the pressure on both Riyadh and Washington to find a solution. So far, neither has.
\u201cSo the Turks are now compelled to bring it all out,\u201d said Thad Troy, a former C. I. A. official with experience in Turkey. \u201cAnd the Turks will certainly make the most of it, dragging down M. B. S. as much as they can in the process.\u201d
Also reveling in the besmirching of Prince Mohammed\u2019s name are Iran and its allies across the Arab world who see the kingdom as an essential partner in American designs on the region, which they oppose.
But while the Qataris, Turks and other Islamists have all but cheered the battering of Prince Mohammed, the Iranians and their allies have largely watched quietly, taking a longer term strategic view, said Randa Slim, an analyst with the Middle East Institute. They would love nothing more than to see a full breakdown in the alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
\u201cThe Iranians are thinking, if the U. S. drops him, he\u2019ll move to Russia, he\u2019ll move to China, he\u2019ll move to our axis,\u201d Ms. Slim said. \u201cThat has been their long-term dream: to separate Saudi Arabia from what they call the American-Zionist project.\u201d
Iran\u2019s allies, which include the Syrian government, some political forces in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, also see no reason to add to the recriminations against Prince Mohammed.
\u201cWhen you see your enemy self-destroy, why do you need to do anything?\u201d Ms. Slim said. \u201cThey are going to sit back and enjoy the show.\u201d
But for the region\u2019s smaller countries, like Bahrain and Kuwait, and its poorer states, like Jordan and Egypt, the safest bet has been to voice support for their ally Saudi Arabia or keep quiet and hope the storm passes, largely because they have no other options.
\u201cI think M. B. S. is indispensable and hopefully he will come out of this more mature,\u201d said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political scientist from the U. A. E. \u201cAnd therefore you have to deal with him. He will be around, the king trusts him and we have to accept that Mohammed bin Salman is here to stay.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Similarity rank: 7<\/div>\n

Sentiment rank: 0.8<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n

TW posts: 95<\/div>\n

TW reposts: 3<\/div>\n

TW likes: 4<\/div>\n

TW sentiment: 0<\/div>\n<\/div>\n