ANALYSIS:
\nChina will gain strategically from the removal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan after the stunning collapse of the U.S.-backed government and \u2026<\/b>
\nANALYSIS: China will gain strategically from the removal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan after the stunning collapse of the U.S.-backed government and military there, according to American analysts. But that success will be balanced against the ruling Communist Party\u2019s fear of having to contend with a radical Islamic state on its border in Central Asia and the potential flow of terrorists into China \u2018s Xinjiang Province. Militarily, the Taliban takeover of the Southwest Asian state means Beijing can celebrate the removal of U.S. troops and accompanying spy bases from its western border. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders have long regarded the presence of American and NATO troops in Afghanistan as a major threat. Afghanistan has a limited border with China through a strip of land known as the Wakhan Corridor linking the country to Xinjiang, where Uyghur Muslims face what the State Department calls genocide carried out under the guise of Chinese anti-terrorism policies. The withdrawal of American troops, however, now means Beijing faces the prospect of having to deal with the threat of a hostile, Taliban -led Islamic state on its border with Xinjiang and other western provinces. China has signaled it wants to work with the new regime in Kabul. Last month Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Shanghai with a Taliban official prompting speculation Beijing will be among the first to recognize the new government. The Chinese are expected to utilize President Xi Jinping\u2019s centerpiece global infrastructure development project known as the Belt and Road Initiative as a means of influencing the Taliban regime, offering greater economic benefits to be included in the Chinese trading and investment web. Until recently, the American military presence in Afghanistan provided China with a pacifying influence on its western border. Leaders in Beijing long feared a conflict over Taiwan would escalate to include attacks from neighboring states such as India, Mongolia or Central Asian nations. The removal of U.S. troops from the region now allows Chinese party and military leaders to limit the spread of a conflict from there as they focus on the Taiwan question. Information wars Chinese state media also have been quick to seize on the swift Taliban victory in Afghanistan to further the claim that the United States is an unreliable security partner. China on Monday put the Taiwanese government on notice that the threat of American military power should no longer be relied on to deter or prevent a mainland military takeover. The Communist Party-affiliated Global Times tweeted on Monday: \u201cFrom what happened in Afghanistan, those in Taiwan should perceive that once a war breaks out in the [Taiwan] Straits, the island\u2019s defense will collapse in hours and the U.S. military won\u2019t come to help. As a result, the DPP will quickly surrender.\u201d DPP is the acronym for Taiwan\u2019s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. On the terrorism front, Afghanistan remains a safe haven for more than four Islamic terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda core, Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, the Haqqani Network, and Islamic State-Khorasan Province, according to a Congressional Research Service report. China \u2018s aggressive anti-U.S. propaganda operations have begun trumpeting the defeat of the U.S.-backed Afghan government in Kabul as proof of their narrative that the United States is a superpower in decline. Kerry Gershaneck, a visiting scholar in Taiwan and Southeast Asia, said China \u2018s regime is reaping clear political benefits from the U.S. and NATO rout in Afghanistan. \u201cAs part of its psychological warfare and media warfare against Taiwan, Beijing will work with news media it has co-opted there as well as with pro-PRC politicians and academics to corrode any faith Taiwan has in America\u2019s ability to defend Taiwan if Xi Jinping follows through on his threats to invade that country,\u201d Mr. Gershaneck said. Analysts say China secured tacit Taliban support years ago with covert arms and equipment. In exchange, Beijing demanded assurances the Taliban would not back Islamic terrorists in Xinjiang. But Chinese support for the Taliban could backfire because of the government\u2019s harsh treatment of all religions, especially Islam, as ideological competitors to the ruling CCP. Beijing support for the Taliban, whose leaders are known to be radical Islamists, is unlikely to prevent the regime from returning to the hard-line rule in the late 1990s. Miles Yu, a former State Department policy planning special for China during the Trump administration, said China achieved a strategic goal of removing American troops, but must now face a \u201cdouble-edged sword\u201d of having a potentially hostile Islamic state on its western border. \u201c Beijing is aligning itself with one of the most notorious rogue regimes in the world.\u201d Mr. Yu said. \u201cThere will be reputational costs for China to be associated with the Taliban.\u201d Past Taliban rule from 1996 to 2001 was marked by mass repression, public beheadings, and the destruction of historical and religious monuments. The regime was ousted by U.S. troops in October 2001 after al Qaeda terrorists conducted the September 11 terrorist attacks from a sanctuary inside the country. China \u2018s Communist leadership has shown no qualms about working with terrorist states, having long provided key backing for both North Korea and Iran, considered the world\u2019s leading rogue states and viewed as key American enemies. Dividing the allies On yet another front, Mr. Gershaneck, a retired Marine Corps officer and former Pentagon strategic planner, said he expects China to exploit the Afghanistan turmoil to further divide the United States from its allies and other nations that Washington has cultivated in an effort to counter China \u2018s expansionist agenda. \u201cThe Politburo has taken note,\u201d he said. \u201c China will adapt its gray zone operations and its war planning accordingly, and accelerate its timetables for key geopolitical milestones it aims to achieve by the PRC centennial in 2049.\u201d \u201cGray zone\u201d warfare involves the use of non-military means. Also, the Afghan defeat is likely to undermine growing efforts by the U.S. military to retool its mission to focus on the threat posed by China after decades focused on counterinsurgency and counterterrorism after the 9\/11 attacks. \u201cThat focus will now be diffused by a clearly foreseeable resurgent terrorist threat against the American homeland and our interests worldwide,\u201d Mr. Gershaneck said. China \u2018s government is likely to present itself to the Biden administration as a key intermediary in dealing with the Taliban and other Afghan-based terror groups in ways similar to the questionable cooperation Beijing has offered in confronting the threat from North Korea. The United States has spent more than $2.6 trillion in Afghanistan since 2001, according to the Cost of War project at Brown University, including arming and training a 300,000-troop Afghan National Army that collapsed after several days of fighting a nationwide Taliban offensive. Now, much of the U.S. arms and equipment are under the control of the Taliban making the Islamist militia perhaps the most well-arms terrorist group in the world. Reports from Afghanistan showed Taliban fighters taking control of stockpiles of U.S. military weapons and equipment, including Black Hawk helicopters and Scan Eagle drones. A former senior national security official during the Trump administration said President Trump told aides during several Oval Office meetings that the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan must avoid two things: loss of American arms and equipment to the Taliban, and a \u201cSaigon-style exit.\u201d \u201cNow both of those things are happening,\u201d the former official said.<\/p>\n