If people give up masks and social distancing and stop getting vaccinated, ‘we could be right back here in the winter with surge five,’ an infectious-disease specialist says.<\/b>
\nCOVID-19 deaths in the U.S. are coming down again, hospitalizations are dropping, and new cases per day are about to dip below 100,000 for the first time in two months \u2013 all signs that the summer surge is waning. Not wanting to lose momentum, government leaders and employers are looking to strengthen vaccine requirements. Los Angeles enacted one of the nation\u2019s strictest vaccine mandates Wednesday, a sweeping measure that would require the shots for everyone entering a bar, restaurant, nail salon, gym or Lakers game. New York City and San Francisco have similar rules. Minnesota\u2019s governor this week called for vaccine and testing requirements for teachers and long-term care workers. In New York, a statewide vaccination mandate for all hospital and nursing home workers will be expanded Thursday to home care and hospice employees. Across the nation, deaths per day have dropped by nearly 15 percent since mid-September and are now averaging about 1,750. New cases have fallen to just over 103,000 per day on average, a 40 percent decline over the past three weeks. The number of Americans now in the hospital with COVID-19 has declined by about one-quarter since its most recent peak of almost 94,000 a month ago. \u201cWhat we\u2019re seeing is what we\u2019ve seen in the prior three surges,\u201d said Dr. Marybeth Sexton, an infectious-disease specialist at Emory University School of Medicine. \u201cWhat we need to remember is when we see these numbers go down, it\u2019s not a signal to let up. It\u2019s a signal to push harder.\u201d If people give up masks and social distancing and stop getting vaccinated, \u201cwe could be right back here in the winter with surge five,\u201d she said. The decreases have been especially sharp in several Deep South states, where cases have gone down more than twice as fast as they have nationwide. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas all saw their case numbers cut in half over the past two weeks. What\u2019s behind the decline isn\u2019t entirely clear, though health experts point out that the numbers are falling as more people are getting vaccinated and new requirements for the shot are being put in place by government and private employers. The decrease in case numbers could also be due to the virus running out of susceptible people in some places. Several big companies and institutions with vaccine requirements are seeing high compliance rates. In Denver,92 percent of its municipal employees have gotten the shot, well above the city\u2019s overall rate. Ochsner Health, Louisiana\u2019s largest health system, said last week that 82 percent of its employees were fully vaccinated. But this week, a group of employees sued to block the mandate, which includes making unvaccinated spouses pay an extra $200 a month in health insurance. Three of North Carolina\u2019s largest health systems said on Wednesday that more than 99 percent of the roughly 88,000 workers they collectively employ have gotten a shot or an approved medical or religious exemption. Just under 300 workers at Duke Health, UNC Health and Novant Health have quit or been fired over their refusal to comply. Health care giant Kaiser Permanente put more than 2,200 employees nationwide \u2013 roughly 1 percent of its workforce \u2013 on unpaid leave because they have chosen not to get vaccinated. They have until Dec.1 to get their shots or lose their jobs. Since its vaccination requirement was announced, the inoculation rate among employees has gone from 78 percent to 92 percent, Kaiser said. \u201cVaccine requirements work. New data reinforces that fact each day,\u201d White House COVID-19 coordinator Jeff Zients said Wednesday. The easing of cases, death and hospitalizations is happening along with other encouraging developments, including the possibility that vaccinations for 5-to-11-year-olds will become available in a matter of weeks and the first pill for treating people sick with COVID-19 could reach the market by year\u2019s end. Worldwide, newly reported cases fell in the last week, continuing a declining global trend that began in August, the World Health Organization said. The U.N. agency reported that the biggest decline in deaths was in Africa. Elsewhere around the world, Russia\u2019s daily coronavirus death toll this week surpassed 900 for the first time in the pandemic amid a low vaccination rate and the government\u2019s reluctance to impose tough infection-control restrictions. And authorities in Sweden, Denmark and Norway suspended or discouraged the use of Moderna\u2019s COVID-19 vaccine in young people because of an increased risk of heart inflammation, a very rare side effect associated with the shot. Despite the encouraging direction in the U.S., health experts say it is no time for people to drop their guard because there are still far too many who are unvaccinated. \u201cThis is still primarily a problem of people who are unvaccinated,\u201d said Jennifer Nuzzo, a Johns Hopkins University public health researcher. \u201cSome of them are taking precautions, but many of them feel like they don\u2019t need to worry.\u201d There is also concern that a new wave could come during the winter months when more people are indoors. While hospitalizations nationwide are at a two-month low, intensive care units and staff in surging areas from Alaska to New England remain stretched thin. Despite having some of the highest vaccination rates in the country, some parts of New England, including Maine, are seeing record caseloads, largely among the unvaccinated. Success. Please wait for the page to reload. If the page does not reload within 5 seconds, please refresh the page. Enter your email and password to access comments. Forgot Password? Don’t have a Talk profile? Create one. Invalid username\/password. Please check your email to confirm and complete your registration. Create a commenting profile by providing an email address, password and display name. You will receive an email to complete the registration. Please note the display name will appear on screen when you participate. Already registered? Log in to join the discussion. Only subscribers are eligible to post comments. Please subscribe or login to participate in the conversation. Here\u2019s why. Use the form below to reset your password. 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