The immediate cause for the cancellation was Trump\u2019s insistence that Mexico pay for a wall along the U. S. southern border. But a slide in U. S.-Mexico relations could affect far more than Trump\u2019s promised barrier.
The U. S. and Mexico are partners in a variety of cross-border cooperative agreements, including a multibillion-dollar war to curb drug trafficking that at one time had U. S. intelligence officers working with Mexican authorities. Trump\u2019s continued criticism of Mexico threatens to return U. S.-Mexico relations to the frosty state they were in the last century, when the relationship was so delicate that Nazi Germany made a play for an alliance with Mexico.
Jorge Guajardo, Mexico\u2019s former ambassador to China, said the breach was specifically about payment for the wall. It\u2019s not about Trump\u2019s desire to renegotiate NAFTA, deport more people or even the wall itself. Mexicans can understand the reasoning, but Guarjardo said expecting Mexico to pay for the wall was insulting.
\u201cIt\u2019s the stupidest idea ever,\u201d Guarjardo said. \u201cEveryone laughed about it. Now, all of sudden, that is what\u2019s dictating policy and that\u2019s what causing a rupture between countries who were friends. Will no one restore sanity to this process?\u201d
Pe\u00f1a Nieto canceled next week\u2019s visit to Washington following Trump\u2019s executive order calling for the construction of a wall between the nations.
Trump, who said the decision was mutual, didn\u2019t make things easier Thursday when he repeated once again that Mexico will pay for the controversial wall along the southwest border and accused the country of costing the United States $60 billion a year in trade deficits.
\u201cNot to mention millions of jobs and thousands and thousands of factories and plants closing down all over our country,\u201d Trump said.
It\u2019s a much different relationship from the one past U. S. presidents have had with their Mexican counterparts. Mexican President Vicente Fox and President George W. Bush were friends from their days as governors of bordering states who shared a fondness for cowboy boots. President Barack Obama described his Mexican counterpart, President Felipe Calderon, as a friend and partner.
Mexico is arguably the most important bilateral relationship the United States has. It\u2019s the third largest U. S. trading partner and a crucial ally in a wide range of security, migration and trade issues.
It\u2019s also a relationship that has improved considerably over several decades. The two countries have collaborated on everything from drug trafficking to human trafficking.
NAFTA has had its flaws, but Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, said it also had led to a closer relationship between the countries.
The Obama administration, for example, tried to support the Mexican government with the 7-year-old Merida initiative, which provided, among other things, more than $2 billion to fight drug trafficking in the country. Pe\u00f1a Nieto also allowed for U. S. investment in Mexico\u2019s oil industry, something that Mexican nationalists had opposed for decades.
Much of those improved relations could be put at risk, Shifter said.
\u201cIt\u2019s an extremely serious situation. It\u2019s unclear how bad it can get. But there is a real risk of it spiraling out of control,\u201d Shifter said.
Talking with reporters Thursday, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said one way to pay for the wall might be to impose a 20 percent tax on all imports from Mexico.
Trump\u2019s dogged determination that Mexico pay for the wall \u2013 one way or another \u2013 has fueled resentment among the Mexican people and propped up leftist candidates looking to win the Mexican presidency next year on a wave of anti-American sentiment and a poor economy. Inflation is rising, fed in part by a 13 percent decline in the value of the peso against the dollar since Trump\u2019s election.
The Mexican newspaper La Prensa published a front-page picture of Trump signing the order with large headline reading: \u201cHe did it!\u201d
Seeing an opportunity, the leftist Mexican politician Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said last week that he would tour major U. S. cities starting in February.
\u201cEnough of being passive,\u201d Lopez Obrador, who\u2019s the candidate of the Moreno party, said in a statement. \u201cWe should put a national emergency plan in place to face the damage and reverse the protectionist policies of Donald Trump.\u201d
Jos\u00e9 C\u00e1rdenas, a former senior State Department official in the Bush administration, supports Trump\u2019s effort to tackle illegal immigration and review NAFTA. But he questions the president\u2019s tactics. Trump\u2019s sharper edges could probably be smoothed, he said.
\u201cWhat this is the rough and tumble world of New York real estate meets statecraft,\u201d C\u00e1rdenas said.
C\u00e1rdenas likens Lopez Obrador to the late Venezuelan President Hugo Ch\u00e1vez. The threat is that Lopez Obrador takes power and returns policies to when the two countries didn\u2019t work together to address mutual problems like drug trafficking, migration and counterterrorism threats, C\u00e1rdenas said.
The risk goes far beyond shattering NAFTA, extending to migration security cooperation; Mexico intercepts thousands of Central Americans every year, preventing them from reaching the United States.
C\u00e1rdenas said the irony was that if economic conditions continued to worsen in Mexico it could lead to even more immigrants crossing the border in search of economic opportunities.
\u201cThe irony is that if you keep pushing Mexico you\u2019re going to get the problem that you want to solve exacerbated, exponentially,\u201d he said.
Anita Kumar contributed to this report.<\/p>\n