«It was the biggest display of public dissent since huge pro-reform rallies in 2009.»<\/b>
\nIt\u2019s hard to tell just how hard the country\u2019s being rocked since western news outlets don\u2019t have much of a presence in Iran. That means many of the reports trickling out come from regime opponents, who have an incentive to exaggerate the size of the demonstrations.
Allegedly the protests are the largest since the Green Revolution of 2009, although the BBC is underwhelmed by their size:
The protests started in the north-eastern city of Mashhad \u2013 the country\u2019s second most-populous \u2013 on Thursday.
The protests spread to at least half a dozen cities on Friday. In some cities police in riot gear and on motorbikes clashed with demonstrators\u2026
Overall, the numbers said to be taking part range from less than 100 in some places to thousands in others \u2013 but demonstrations do not appear to be taking place on a massive scale.
On the other hand, this sure is interesting:
Police in Iran\u2019s capital said Thursday they will no longer arrest women for failing to observe the Islamic dress code in place since the 1979 revolution.
The announcement signaled an easing of punishments for violating the country\u2019s conservative dress code, as called for by the young and reform-minded Iranians who helped re-elect President Hassan Rouhani, a relative moderate, earlier this year\u2026
The semi-official Tasnim news agency said violators will instead be made to attend classes given by police. It said repeat offenders could still be subject to legal action, and the dress code remains in place outside the capital.
What makes that especially notable is that today is the eighth anniversary of the start of the Green Revolution protests. The mullahs organized a demonstration by their most fanatic supporters weeks ago to mark that occasion this afternoon. Clearly the regime\u2019s feeling some pressure if it\u2019s willing to make a provocative concession on Islamic dress amid days of resistance by its opponents.
Consensus among news agencies is that the protests started in Mashhad on Thursday in response to rising food prices. In Iran the big selling point of the nuclear deal with the U. S. was that sanctions in the west would be lifted and the economy would boom. But that hasn\u2019t happened, the AP notes. Prices for staples like eggs are up, inflation is increasing, and unemployment remains high. Gas prices have also risen while welfare has been cut. \u201cPoorer Iranians have been involved in the new round of protests in a way that wasn\u2019t seen in the 2009 Green Movement,\u201d according to CNN .
But as the protests spread to other cities, including the Shiite religious center of Qom, it brought people with more diverse grievances out into the streets. Some have been heard chanting against Iran\u2019s regional imperialism ( \u201cnot Gaza, not Lebanon, my life for Iran\u201d), some about police abuse and the taking of political prisoners, but increasingly it seems they\u2019ve turned broadly anti-government replete with occasional cries of \u201cDeath to Khamenei\u201d and \u201cDeath to Rouhani.\u201d
Protesters in #Kashan took down a poster of Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader pic.twitter.com\/s4VvwT3oQ6
\u2014 IranWire (@IranWireEnglish) December 30,2017
Demonstrators shout \u201cWe don\u2019t want an Islamic republic!\u201d #IranianProtests #IranUprising #Heroes pic.twitter.com\/VqOO26OTpZ
\u2014 Andy C. Ngo (@MrAndyNgo) December 30,2017
Interestingly, protesters aren\u2019t making much of a distinction between hardline clerics and softer ones like Rouhani. That may have been the impetus for lifting the veil requirement for women in Tehran \u2014 it\u2019s a cosmetic way to make restive young Iranians believe that Rouhani, a regime puppet, is delivering some meaningful \u201creform\u201d for them. Some demonstrators have even been heard calling for the return of the Shah, which maybe isn\u2019t the best way to bring older Iranians around to the cause.
Today\u2019s regime-organized pro-cleric demonstration apparently drew thousands, a show of strength aimed at warning the mullahs\u2019 opponents not to press their luck. But so far they\u2019re undaunted:
Videos from across Iran posted on social media shows that pro-regime rallies earlier today have failed to end anti-regime protests as they spread even more across the country this evening.
\u2014 Saeed Kamali Dehghan (@SaeedKD) December 30,2017
The waves being made are large enough to have attracted the president\u2019s attention too:
Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with regime\u2019s corruption & its squandering of the nation\u2019s wealth to fund terrorism abroad. Iranian govt should respect their people\u2019s rights, including right to express themselves. The world is watching! #IranProtests
\u2014 Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 30,2017
Trump\u2019s in the same tricky spot every U. S. president is in when there\u2019s domestic turmoil in an enemy country. The regime inevitably tries to discredit the protests by claiming that America and the CIA are behind them. A population that\u2019s been weaned on anti-Americanism is primed to believe that, and when the president pops up and says something supportive of the protesters it becomes that much easier to believe. Trump\u2019s also made no secret of his antipathy to Iran by including the country in his travel ban, decertifying the nuclear deal, and even pointedly referring to the Persian Gulf as the Arabian Gulf at times this year, wounding Iranian pride. The more he cheerleads for the demonstrations, the more it may backfire in Iran \u2014 but the less he cheerleads, the more it may backfire here at home among hawks who\u2019ll never forgive Obama for not being more aggressive during the Green Revolution. Trump\u2019s rule of thumb is to do the opposite of whatever Obama did, so expect some aggressiveness this time. And why not? The NYT predicted last month that Trump\u2019s nuclear decertification would blow up in his face by uniting patriotic Iranians behind the mullahs. How\u2019s that looking right now?
Here\u2019s a bit of video from Radio Free Europe. There are various clips circulating on social media ( this BBC thread collects many of them) but most don\u2019t have subtitles so you\u2019re left with similar scenes of angry crowds milling about. Key question now: When does the regime shift from its current strategy of appeasing the protesters to attacking them? The concession on Islamic dress for women in Tehran and the fact that there hasn\u2019t been much violence so far smells like the mullahs think these demonstrations will burn themselves out in a few days. No sense tossing gasoline on them by cracking heads when they\u2019re still small-ish. But if they persist or get bigger, Iran\u2019s brownshirts, the Basij, will inevitably be unleashed. How much longer?<\/p>\n

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