Despite all the talk of a Trump-Kim summit, South Korea’s Moon Jae-in will meet the North Korean leader first.<\/b>
\nThe March 9 announcement of a potential late May summit between President Donald Trump and North Korea\u2019s Kim Jong-un was greeted with surprise and even consternation by many analysts and Korea watchers. Despite the unprecedented possibility of a sitting U. S. president meeting with North Korea\u2019s leader, many questions remain regarding Pyongyang\u2019s possible motives and also what if anything can be achieved by such a hastily arranged summit, particularly with such an ill-prepared White House.
These doubts have only increased with the recent firing (by presdiential tweet) of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Tillerson\u2019s replacement, CIA director Mike Pompeo, will not face Senate confirmation hearings until April. Furthermore, there is discussion that Trump\u2019s\u00a0national security advisor, General H. R. McMaster, is also on the way out, possibly to be replaced by John Bolton, a former U. S. ambassador to the United Nations under George W. Bush. Bolton is a well-known hardliner on North Korea, who during his time in the Bush administration referred to members of the State Department\u2019s East Asia Bureau as the \u201cEAPeasers\u201d for favoring diplomacy rather than force. He has repeatedly called for the military option against Pyongyang\u2019s nuclear and missile program.
Constant speculation about the Trump-Kim summit and the seemingly endless tumult emanating from the White House has crowded out attention on another important and far more certain event, namely, the inter-Korean summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un. The third-ever inter-Korean summit meeting is due to be held at the truce village of Panmunjom in late April.
Although the causal role of Trump\u2019s more aggressive stance toward North Korea should not be discounted, both Seoul and Pyongyang played a significant (if not definitive) part in fostering recent talks, reducing tensions, and laying the groundwork for any future breakthrough. Consistent with its proactive diplomacy, Seoul has shifted into high gear planning for the upcoming summit.
Over the last week, following their meeting with Kim in Pyongyang and their follow-up briefing with Trump in Washington DC, Chung Eui-yong (the South Korean\u00a0national security advisor) and Suh Hoo (the director of the National Intelligence Service) have made the regional diplomatic rounds. Chung visited Beijing and Moscow and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, respectively, in order to brief them on South Korea\u2019s efforts. Meanwhile, Suh visited Tokyo and met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for the same purpose.
The committee itself will be divided into three subcommittees. The first, headed by Vice Unification Minister Chun Hae-sung, will focus on the agenda for the summit. The second will promote the summit and be headed by presidential chief press secretary, Yoon Young-chan. The third will organize the summit meeting and be led by NIS senior director Kim Sang-gyun. Chief of Staff Im, Minister of Unification Cho, and the three subcommittee heads will meet three to four times a week, and the entire committee will meet once a week or every other week before the summit occurs.
A Blue House official said the \u201ccommittee was simplified compared to the one created for the 2007 summit, in order to deal swiftly with issues that arise.\u201d The 2007 summit was held in Pyongyang near the end of President Roh Moo-hyun\u2019s administration. At the time, Roh was a lame duck president and some analysts saw the summit as hastily devised and even politically motivated. Conditions have since changed. Moon is early in his term of office;\u00a0he was a close observer and participant in those earlier events, and learned from them.
Green noted, \u201cNorth Korea treats its relations with the South as a strategic tool to access the United States\u2026 In this instance, to go around the need for prior steps toward denuclearization.\u201d Historically, Pyongyang often pursued direct relations with Washington and attempted to sidestep Seoul in the process. Now, however, Seoul is the conduit to\u00a0Washington. With Trump\u2019s apparent acceptance of Kim Jong-un\u2019s invitation, it appears to have worked, at least for the moment.
What about the summit itself?
Green continued:
In short, aside from some small concessions by Pyongyang or Seoul, any substantive progress remains a function of the United States and its relationship with both Koreas. This is the second obvious difficulty facing the Moon administration.
On the one hand, it has little ability to restrain Trump\u2019s impetuous behavior, something even his closest advisers cannot seem to do. What if Trump suddenly decides that talks with Pyongyang are not worth pursuing? Pompeo\u2019s appointment and Bolton\u2019s possible selection do not indicate Trump is readily embracing a diplomatic solution. On the other hand, Trump continues to show brazen disregard for South Korea\u2019s interests. He recently appeared to threaten to remove U. S. troops from South Korea if Seoul did not give him what he wanted on trade issues.
Despite these many severe difficulties, one thing remains clear. Moon will doggedly continue his constructive approach within a severely constrained and fraught situation.<\/p>\n