Critical Perspectives on U. S. Foreign Policy
The U. S. media has been full of dire warnings of an imminent U. S. attack on North Korea.
Two aircraft carriers are now within firing distance of North Korea. They’ re part of a military exercise in the Sea of Japan in which South Korea and the United States are coordinating a drill involving advanced bombers. The Pentagon recently tested a successful anti-missile interceptor, which some analysts interpret as a pointed message to Pyongyang. Prominent geopolitical analyst George Friedman believes that U. S. government representatives briefing officials in Guam on civil defense is another sign of an upcoming attack because the island could be the target of North Korean retaliation.
President Donald Trump is an impulsive leader. He is unhappy with the slowness of domestic reform in the United States, the critical response by European leaders after his recent trip to the NATO and G7 meetings, and the reluctance of China to put more pressure on North Korea. If he were convinced that a preemptive attack on North Korea would represent the “big win” that he is craving for his presidency, he might just pull the trigger.
Still, I’ m not convinced that the United States is preparing an actual attack. For decades, Washington has emphasized that all options are on the table – including military ones – and operational plans have long been in place for an attack on North Korea. The latest, OPLAN 515, even incorporates a preemptive attack for the first time. But this is all contingency planning, not the lead-up to an order to start bombing.
Moreover, Trump has been briefed on the horrendous consequences of a war on the Korean peninsula, which would include mass civilian casualties in South Korea and U. S. troop losses there and in Japan. A two-month strategic review of North Korea policy undertaken by the administration concluded that a better strategy consists of “maximum pressure and engagement.”
As one anonymous U. S. official said, “the U. S. doesn’ t intend to use military force against North Korea in response to either a nuclear test or a missile launch. That might change if North Korea fires a missile at South Korea, Japan or U. S. territory. But Pyongyang is unlikely to engage in such suicidal behavior.
