In one of the most unsettled Oscars seasons in memory, the toughest category to figure out may be Best Picture. But first, we have to figure out what’s going to get nominated – and while five or six films and more than a dozen actors seem secure in their chances of scoring nods, there are plenty of question marks up and down the Oscar ballot. In all likelihood, Guillermo del
In one of the most unsettled Oscars seasons in memory, the toughest category to figure out may be Best Picture.
But first, we have to figure out what’s going to get nominated — and while five or six films and more than a dozen actors seem secure in their chances of scoring nods, there are plenty of question marks up and down the Oscar ballot.
In all likelihood, Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water” will lead all films in nominations — I have it nabbing 12 nominations, which would put it two shy of the record shared by “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land.” That seems a little high, but the runners-up — “Dunkirk” with eight, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” with seven and “Lady Bird,” “Get Out” and “Call Me by Your Name” with five — feel about right.
Here are my best guesses in all 24 categories, with potential nominees listed in order of likelihood:
BEST PICTURE
Five films seem very safe in the Oscars’ top category, and two more relatively safe: “Lady Bird,” “The Shape of Water,” “Get Out,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and “Dunkirk” as the top five, with “Call Me by Your Name” and “The Post” just behind (though the lack of guild support for Steven Spielberg’s drama is troubling). With the Academy’s system capable of producing anywhere from five to 10 Best Picture nominees, I have a feeling this year could only yield those seven, though history suggests that eight or nine films often make the cut.
If so, the final one or two will likely be drawn from “Phantom Thread,” which just might have enough fanatic devotees to benefit from the preferential system; “I, Tonya” and “Molly’s Game,” which have done very well in guild voting; “The Florida Project,” which once seemed to be a likely nominee and could still squeeze in; “Darkest Hour,” which also seemed likely as well; and “The Big Sick” and “Mudbound,” which received key SAG ensemble nominations.
Predicted nominees: “The Shape of Water,” “Lady Bird,” “Get Out,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “Dunkirk,” “Call Me by Your Name,” “The Post” If nine films are nominated (which experience says might happen): “I, Tonya,” “The Florida Project” If somehow 10 films get in (which they won’t): “The Big Sick”
BEST DIRECTOR
The Directors Guild nominated Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”), Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”), Martin McDonagh (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”) and Jordan Peele (“Get Out”).
Most years, the Academy goes for four of the five DGA nominees, which might mean dropping Peele, Gerwig or McDonagh in favor of Sean Baker (“The Florida Project”), Luca Guadagnino (“Call Me by Your Name”) or Steven Spielberg (“The Post”).
Certainly, the Academy’s Directors Branch has confounded expectations before, and in the last two years the branch has grown by more than 25 percent — largely with the admission of international voters who may be harder to predict. Heck, they could even make up for snubbing Ridley Scott for “The Martian” by nominating him for his 11th-hour save of “All the Money in the World,” though that’s a complete long shot. But here’s guessing that for once, they stick with the DGA slate.
Predicted nominees: Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”; Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”; Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”; Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
BEST ACTOR
There’s one big question in this category: Will James Franco get a nomination? The “Disaster Artist” director and star seemed on track for one until a number of women surfaced to accuse him of sexual misconduct in the wake of his Golden Globes win. The most damning of those accusations came only one day before Oscars voting ended — so while the accusations undoubtedly cost him some votes, he probably already had enough to get in.
Gary Oldman and Timothée Chalamet are locks for “Darkest Hour” and “Call Me by Your Name,” and “Phantom Thread” star Daniel Day-Lewis probably is as well — so if Franco gets in, the last slot will go to Tom Hanks (“The Post”), Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”), Jake Gyllenhaal (“Stronger”) or Denzel Washington (“Roman J. Israel, Esq.”). Hanks is Oscar royalty, but he hasn’t been nominated since 2000, and Kaluuya’s film has real heat.
Predicted nominees: Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”; Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”; Daniel Day-Lewis,”Phantom Thread”; Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”; James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
BEST ACTRESS
In one of the Oscars’ most competitive categories, Frances McDormand, Saoirse Ronan and Sally Hawkins feel like locks for “Three Billboards,” “Lady Bird” and “The Shape of Water,” respectively. “I, Tonya” star Margot Robbie, who initially seemed to be on the bubble, now seems secure — which means that while Meryl Streep (“The Post”) holds the record for the most Oscar nominations for acting, she’s fighting for the fifth spot with a variety of other contenders, including Jessica Chastain (“Molly’s Game”), Judi Dench (“Victoria & Abdul”) and Michelle Williams (“All the Money in the World”).
The guilds liked “Molly’s Game” more than “The Post,” so I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that Chastain will pull an upset and edge out Streep.
Predicted nominees: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”; Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”; Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”; Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards”) and Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”) for sure. Rockwell’s co-star Woody Harrelson has been coming on strong lately. “Call Me by Your Name” sports a pair of strong contenders in Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg. Richard Jenkins provides the audience’s way into “The Shape of Water.” And Christopher Plummer could be rewarded for jumping into the Kevin Spacey role in “All the Money in the World.”
Predicted nominees: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”; Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”; Armie Hammer, “Call Me by Your Name”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The three actresses who play difficult moms — Allison Janney in “I, Tonya,” Laurie Metcalf in “Lady Bird” and Holly Hunter in “The Big Sick,” in level of increasing likability — should all get nominations. Then there’s Mary J. Blige in “Mudbound,” Hong Chau in “Downsizing,” Octavia Spencer in “The Shape of Water,” Lesley Manville in “Phantom Thread” and even Tiffany Haddish in “Girls Trip.” Chau could sneak in as the only part of Alexander Payne’s movie that has clicked with voters, but the film’s overall reception could hurt her.
Predicted nominees: Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”; Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”; Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”; Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”; Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The thinner of the Oscars’ two screenplay categories will certainly contain “Call Me by Your Name” and will likely have “Molly’s Game,” “The Disaster Artist” and “Mudbound” as well, unless voters balk at the last film’s Netflix provenance. After that, it’s anybody’s guess, with “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool,” “Wonder,” “The Beguiled,” “Victoria & Abdul” and WGA nominee “Logan” among the films that have a chance. We give a slight edge to “Wonder,” which came in late but was loved by most of those who saw it.
Predicted nominees: “Call Me by Your Name,” “Molly’s Game,” “The Disaster Artist,” “Mudbound,” “Wonder”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Can “The Shape of Water” or “Dunkirk” get in, and by doing so increase their chances of winning Best Picture? Or will “The Big Sick” and “I, Tonya” push them out? In a fiercely competitive category where “Get Out,” “Lady Bird” and “Three Billboards” seem assured of nominations and “The Post” and “Coco” also sit on the bubble, I have a feeling there’s too much affection for “The Shape of Water” to leave it out, and too much admiration for the verbal fireworks of “I, Tonya.”
Predicted nominees: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “Lady Bird,” “Get Out,” “I, Tonya,” “The Shape of Water”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Yes, Roger Deakins will get his 14th nomination for “Blade Runner 2049” — and this time around, he might even win his first Oscar and erase that inexplicable smudge on the Academy’s record.
“Dunkirk” and “The Shape of Water” seem assured nominations as well. And in a field of contenders that includes “The Post,” “Call Me by Your Name,” “Darkest Hour” and “Mudbound,” the last of those films would give the Academy its first-ever female cinematography nominee, Rachel Morrison.
Predicted nominees: “Blade Runner 2049,” “Dunkirk,” “The Shape of Water,” “Call Me by Your Name,” “Mudbound”
BEST FILM EDITING
This could be the category that tells us whether “Lady Bird” or “Get Out” could win Best Picture — because for the past 36 years, every best-pic winner except “Birdman” (which was designed to look like a continuous shot) was nominated here. “Lady Bird” is the longer shot in a category that usually saves a couple of slots for big, muscular movies.
Predicted nominees: “Dunkirk,” “The Shape of Water,” “Get Out,” “Baby Driver,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
We expect voters to go for the elaborately constructed worlds of “The Shape of Water” and “Blade Runner 2049” and then turn to the lavish period pieces that often dominate the category, “Darkest Hour” and “Murder on the Orient Express” perhaps edging out “Victoria & Abdul,” “The Greatest Showman” and “Wonderstruck.” And as long as voters don’t think the live-action “Beauty and the Beast” was simply a copy of the animated film, it should be safe. But watch out for “Phantom Thread,” too.
Predicted nominees: “The Shape of Water,” “Blade Runner 2049,” “Beauty and the Beast,” “Darkest Hour,” “Murder on the Orient Express”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Oscars voters won’t resist “Phantom Thread,” in which Daniel Day-Lewis plays a costume designer. “Beauty and the Beast” is just too gorgeously frilly to bypass (not to mention all those costumes that help turn people into household objects). And the skating outfits are a key to “I, Tonya.” Then it’s a matter of whether voters want to go elaborate (“The Greatest Showman,” “Murder on the Orient Express,” “Wonderstruck”) or functional (“The Post,” “Dunkirk,” “Darkest Hour”).
